This Saturday feeds us a large split slate. First off, let’s remind everyone of the Votts media list and a few links to follow on this edition of NHL Power Plays. DFS players take notice of any and all changes.
When you are making your teams, one needs to make sure your goalie is confirmed and starting. Sites like Dailyfaceoff.com, Leftwinglock.com, and Goaliepost.com are great places for information. Another great source exists in the form of team beat writers. Jeff has created a list on Twitter @Votts_DFS for all of the NHL teams, and a separate list of all the beat writers for you to follow, it’s a great tool and a necessity. The advanced stats that I use and reference in this article come from Corsica.hockey and naturalstattrick.com.
If you have any questions at all, don’t hesitate to contact me on our premium Slack chat, or you can hit me up on Twitter @ChrisWasselDFS.
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A Quick Note…
The picks below cover the Saturday evening slate which is 6 games in all. The seven-game slate will also be covered in this special edition of NHL Power Plays.
Full Schedule For Saturday, February 9th, 2019
|Colorado||NY Islanders||1:00 pm|
|Los Angeles||Boston||1:00 pm|
|Minnesota||New Jersey||1:00 pm|
|Nashville||St. Louis||2:00 pm|
|Pittsburgh||Tampa Bay||7:00 pm|
|San Jose||Edmonton||7:00 pm|
Prices are in DraftKings format unless noted. FanDuel prices will be included as well.
NHL DFS GPP Plays For Saturday — Early Slate
High Priced Shots
Matt Duchene ($6,300) — The play should be higher owned just because of that high-paced Ottawa-Winnipeg matchup. Ottawa allows the most shots in the league and Winnipeg has had its issues when Laurent Brossoit is in net. He has tallied eight goals in his last ten games and averaged over three shots a game in that span. Winnipeg’s penalty kill has dropped to 77% over its last 15 games. This makes Ottawa a good play to stack on Saturday at the very least. It does not hurt that Duchene is a bit underpriced on the early slate. His FanDuel price comes in at $7,000 which is not awful. Jack Eichel or Patrice Bergeron prove to be worthy alternates on Saturday afternoon.
Viktor Arvidsson ($7,400) — The Nashville forward is also $7,400 on FanDuel but for good reason. He has eight goals and ten points in his last ten games. St. Louis comes home where they are just not the same team as on the road. They allow 3.41 goals per game at home. Nashville’s issues on the power play are well documented but at even strength, they cause St. Louis huge problems. Arvidsson has continued to average four shots a game over the past 15 contests. Will the Blues revert back to their losing ways in their friendly confines? That presents itself as an excellent question. Arvidsson carries enough speed with Filip Forsberg and Ryan Johansen to flat out scare the Blues.
Thomas Chabot ($6.100) — Erik Karlsson who? Chabot continues to impress with Ottawa and enjoyed three points in his last two games. Furthermore, the defenseman is still providing a decent floor averaging two blocked shots a night and over three shots a game. The nice part for FanDuel owners is Chabot comes in at just $5,100 on FanDuel. That value helps the decision-making process there. The Ottawa rearguard provides too solid of a floor in a good spot. His speed and accelerations expect to create matchup problems for the Jets.
Into The Middle
Nico Hischier ($5,800) — Hischier cooled off for a two-game stretch after torching Montreal and the New York Rangers. Minnesota comes in without Mikko Koivu and looked sunk after giving up four goals and losing to Edmonton. The Wild have lost four straight — allowing more than three goals a game. The top line center should get an easier matchup against the Minnesota bottom six. Again, no Koivu makes that much of a difference. Do watch for New Jersey’s second line as well. Hischier’s price on FanDuel is just $5,400. He has seven points in his previous nine contests.
Gustav Nyquist ($5,400) — Nyquist presents as a solid tournament play and even cash play in some cases because of his floor (shots on net) and scoring potential. He averaged 2.5 shots on net in his last nine starts. His time on ice increased to nearly 18 minutes a night in this span as well. He scored against Vegas and is up against a struggling Buffalo defense. Expect some fireworks in this one as Nyquist and Dylan Larkin should create havoc against the Sabres. The FanDuel price is a bit elevated at $6,300 based on his ten points in his previous ten contests.
Rasmus Dahlin ($5,000) — Dahlin floats in with eight points in his last nine games and may get a boost playing against a Detroit team that yields 3.5 goals per game on the road. That features a 77% road penalty kill as well which should create chances for Dahlin on the power play. Buffalo and Detroit may create an unexpected mini-game stack on Saturday afternoon given both teams’ propensity to allow goals in bunches. The defenseman also fired 26 shots on goal in his last nine contests.
Throwing Some Darts
Oskar Sundqvist ($3,600) — Sundqvist playing at home will be interesting along with the entire Blues team. He has six points in his last nine games including three goals. Also, his ice time boosted up to 16 minutes a night in the previous ten starts. As St. Louis trusts him more, Sundqvist could see even more power-play time. The Blues play a more entertaining style of game at home and their expected goals elevate by over a half goal a game.
Oskar Lindblom ($3,600) — Will Lindblom continue to nab those extra minutes? He has scored a couple power-play points also. In the previous nine starts, he has six points overall and increased ice time. Any team that plays Anaheim is elevated upward. Claude Giroux and the first unit power-play will be almost a chalk-like play.
Cody Ceci ($3,900) — Searching for value on defense feels like a quest through a swamp. However, Ceci provides enough of a floor to garner a play on Saturday afternoon. He has six points (all assists) in the last ten starts. That includes 17 shots and 26 blocks. His FanDuel price is a hair higher at $4,300 but basically is still a solid option for the price.
Goading The Goalies
Again, our best bet with this slate is to simply wait for confirmations to come in. The problem lies in that there are few confirmations so far. Morning skates reveal a few more but alas sometimes the wait can be right until warm-ups on a moderate Saturday afternoon slate. Looking towards the lesser games might pay off in GPP’s. Can teams on no rest pike up enough shots to make rested teams look viable?
Watch to see who starts whom. Expect the unexpected again as Laurent Brossoit comes in at $8,200 on FanDuel yet $8,000 on DraftKings. After that, Carter Hart and Tuukka Rask are probably the best plays and the only other goalies currently confirmed.
The slate offers up a few ways to get fancy. Watch to see who starts with everyone rested. See, Nashville, where Pekka Rinne is just $8,300 on FanDuel based on a few not so stellar starts. The vital part of goaltenders is to be patient and wait to see who gets the nod. Making the right decision can be everything on Saturday afternoon.
More picks and choices will be available on Slack and social media later. The key for Saturday is this. Wait till confirmation and then warm-ups in some scenarios. Just trust us here.
Best of luck on Saturday! This expects to feature a lot of unexpected, slate wise.
NHL DFS GPP Plays For Saturday — MAIN SLATE
John Tavares ($6,600) — Tavares sliding back a little in price on DraftKings helps. Montreal playing so well may steer some away from playing Toronto players. However, it is time to take a few risks on this six-game main slate. The center scored two points in each of his last two games but somehow dropped $700 in price. That sets up for an opportunity to buy low and stack away on the Toronto power play. Montreal’s penalty kill is 77.8% since December 1st. His FanDuel price is $8,100 so sliding to Auston Matthews at $7,900 may not be a bad idea.
Nikita Kucherov ($6,700) — Kucherov dropped in price due to an inevitable slump. A slump for Kucherov is a goal and eight assists over his previous nine games. Even his shot volume has shrunk to just 2.4 shots per game over the last dozen starts. Kucherov has four assists in two meetings against Pittsburgh which a bunch of high-danger chances created. Could this be a slump buster for Tampa Bay? They could use it given the fact that the top line and team have averaged just 1.4 goals per game in the last five. His $8,400 FanDuel price may cause some to pivot to Leon Draisaitl at $7,600.
Brent Burns ($6,600) — Keep playing Burns is the mantra. He fired off 12 points in his last ten games with a floor of seven shots and blocked shots a game. Those are insane numbers as Burns is up to 61 real-world points in 55 games now for San Jose. This game sets up as the mini-game stack of the slate. Other matchups have potential but the expected goals for is a bit higher here. Edmonton’s penalty kill is just 75% on the season. Burns and the first unit power-play could be moderate to high-owned.
Combing The Middle
Phillip Danault ($4,500) — Danault heating up at the right time helps owners looking to poach value. His DraftKings price is probably too low after a four-goal, 12 point stretch of late. Shot volume is low but chances are moderate per 60. The one risk against Toronto is that the center does not get power-play points (just one on the year). FanDuel caught on to his hot streak and his price has shot up to $5,800 which is still slightly below player average. Spending up to Pierre-Luc Dubois remains not too bad of an idea. Consider Jonathan Drouin in your stacks as well who averages nearly three shots a game and has 13 points in his last ten contests.
Josh Anderson ($4,700) — Anderson racking up 18 minutes a night now means production. He is now hitting the net at three shots a night basically. Two of his last three goals have come on the man advantage too. This is a great sign for one of the worst power-plays in the league. It is simple. Let the shooters shoot and the numbers will eventually start to bounce back a little. The $4,800 price tag on FanDuel means he is worth a play there as well. He has not risen like expected. Vegas has been stingy at home but the Blue Jackets have a way of manufacturing goals. Reilly Smith is an intriguing choice at $4,700 even with one goal on his previous 27 shots.
Shea Weber ($5,600) — Weber has been the healthiest in a long time and it shows. He fires that booming shot and combines that with a solid floor (26 shots, 21 blocks) over the past ten starts. Three power-play points in the last nine games is a sign the Habs man advantage is showing signs of life. The more Weber hits the net, the more chances are created. Montreal playing better with him 100% is not a surprise. His return coincided with the surge of Carey Price. Imagine that! Weber’s FanDuel price rings in at just $5,500 which is not too shabby.
Digging For Value
Derek Ryan ($2,800) — Risk personified here as Ryan hits the net once a game but has eight points in his previous nine contests. Taking risks is what it is all about here and the Calgary forward exemplifies that mantra. Alexander Wennberg plays the same way for Columbus and has the same kind of point potential on Saturday night. If one wants to spend up in the value bracket, Boone Jenner is $4,200 and on the tail end of value with eight points and four goals over the last ten.
Derick Brassard ($3,300) — Brassard moves up to the top line and garnering much power-play time makes him valuable at this price point. He added an assist in his last game and finally looked comfortable in Florida. IS he being showcased? That seems to be the idea but no one knows until the trade deadline comes and goes. Even his FanDuel price is just $4,000. Washington has stabilized a bit but Florida games often become an adventure in high-event land.
Marcus Pettersson ($3,000) — Pettersson feels like a total danger play on Saturday and yet worth a shot because of his floor (14 shots, 19 blocked shots) of late. Pittsburgh does not play the young defenseman more than 17 minutes a night. Tampa Bay has struggled scoring but they could break out which means more floor opportunities for a cheap punt play in Pettersson. David Savard is another one of these types of options to plug in for next to nothing on Saturday.
The Search For Goaltending
Alas, none of the goalies are confirmed for Saturday night. This makes too much sense naturally. Instead of trying to search and sputter around, the best bet is to speculate on who may start. David Rittich, Frederik Andersen, and Marc-Andre Fleury rank well.
The six game Saturday night main slate expects to keep players on their toes. There will be more tips on starts and value after morning skates. Stay tuned.
Again, good luck on this crazy split Saturday.