NHL Pick 3 – Thursday, January 10th
This article focuses on the upcoming 12 game NHL main slate, highlights a few DFS players that stand out, and a few potential wagers against the spread. Feel free to jump in our new sports betting Slack channel for additional information and updates when it comes to tonight’s action.
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Biggest game on the slate
Washington at Boston, 7 PM EST – Washington is one of the better teams on the road at 13-6-2 while Boston is one of the better ones at home with a 16-5 mark. Boston comes in with a +1.29 goal per game differential while Washington brings a +0.24 goal per game differential. This is partly why the line only opened at Boston -145, as the oddsmakers have given Washington respect in this spot on the road.
The first thing to note is that Boston is rolling with five straight wins and a goal margin of +2 goals per game in that span. Goaltending has been above average behind the duo of Tuukka Rask and Jaroslav Halak. Halak starts tonight for Boston. If the value slips back to -135 or lower, that would be a good number to bet. Â Historically, the Boston goalie plays well against Washington.
The only question that exists with Washington is road goaltending. Braden Holtby played poorly in two of his last three road starts while allowing 12 goals in that time frame. He earned a win against Detroit but only faced 25 shots. Boston can easily top 35+ shots on net at home. Boston’s power play has become more dangerous recently as their numbers are up to 28.5% now on the season. Washington’s power play has trended upward to 21.5%, which is one reason why the line has not moved much. The other reason feels like name reputation to be honest.
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DFS Targets
Brayden Point – Tampa Bay – $7300 DK – There are plenty of top games to attack and this is one of them. Tampa Bay scores 4.41 goals a game at home and rolls in as a -220 favorite tonight against Carolina. Point tallied five goals in the last nine games and 16 points overall. He averages nearly three shots on goal a game currently and is dangerous with Nikita Kucherov on his wing. Overall on the season, Point scoring 11 goals and 18 power play points is just elite production. Though Carolina’s penalty kill has improved, the last two seasons have seen Tampa Bay still convert around 1 in every 4 opportunities. The center is a big reason why Tampa Bay is 18-4 at home. That is no misprint.  It is why some may even want to risk a tiny portion of their bankroll and place it on Tampa Bay. Also, keep an eye on the over/under. Does it stay at 6 1/2? It appears like it should. It may be worth it to take a 0.5 unit or 1 unit flier on the over.
Cam Atkinson – Columbus – $7400 DK – Columbus starting Joonas Korpisalo (because of Sergei Bobrovsky’s “suspension”) will not appeal to many but Atkinson has been a shots machine with 14 in his last three contests on 22 attempted. Atkinson has not scored in the last three games but the Blue Jackets forward has produced incredibly well in similar spots. The price is a solid play given Nashville is not rested and yielded three goals to Chicago last night. Atkinson should fire 4+ shots tonight and have a few chances on the man advantage as well. At some point, Atkinson will find the back of the net. The Columbus three or four goal prop is at +130 which is good value given that Nashville is on the back end of a back to back.
Games Against the Spread
St. Louis -130 – Montreal travels to St. Louis to face the Blues with Jordan Binnington starting. Binnington pitched a shutout against the Philadelphia Flyers his last start. The -130 is a bit too high but still in the realm of decent value. If it were to slide back even a fraction, this may be a good spot to take a side. St. Louis tends to play better in net in front of the young prospect. Also, Montreal should be able to pile on 30+ shots according to projections. That should get Binnington and St. Louis in a rhythm early. If one risked 0.5 units or a full unit on St. Louis, that would not be too much of a stretch.
Edmonton -120, Over 6 –  Breaking down this game indicates a possible buy at -120 for an Edmonton team win. Florida confirmed James Reimer to start and his numbers are a 3.18 GAA and .896 save percentage. The Florida goalie has been better of late — winning three of his last five starts, which may keep the money line where it is. This is good value for a desperate Edmonton team trying to win any way possible. The Panthers lost three straight and are currently ten points out of a playoff spot. The two teams have averaged yielding over three goals a game in their past five contests. The over comes in play only if it stays at 6. If it inches up to 6.5, do not bother to even place a 0.5 unit bet on it.
Philadelphia -110 –Â This is a late entrant but only if the value stays around the current line. The problem is Philadelphia could bust out at any time. Anton Khudobin starting helps here a little but again the Flyers have improved with their penalty kill and scoring chances. The dilemma is this team cannot score, which elevates the risk.
Notable Score Props
Take a look at the Columbus at -110 to score first. Nashville could give up a quick goal early with ease here. Columbus plays an aggressive style with Joonas Korpisalo in net which does carry some risk. On the other hand, their top line is one of the best in the league at generating shots and scoring chances. The period prop (First period O/U 1.5) for the New York Rangers and New York Islanders is a bit high at -130 but consider the first period has gone over in five of the last seven matchups, this over bet is one to explore.
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