This Saturday of the NHL DFS season is chock full of plays, traps, and more. First off, let’s remind everyone of the Votts media list and a few links to follow one more time.
When you are making your teams, one needs to make sure your goalie is actually confirmed and starting. Sites like Dailyfaceoff.com, Leftwinglock.com, and Goaliepost.com are great places for information. Another great source exists in team the form of team beat writers. Jeff has created a list on Twitter @Votts_DFS for all of the NHL teams, and a separate list of all the beat writers for you to follow, it’s a great tool and a necessity. The advanced stats that I use and reference in this article come from Corsica.hockey and naturalstattrick.com.
If you have any questions at all, don’t hesitate to contact me on our premium Slack chat, or you can hit me up on Twitter @ChrisWasselDFS.
A Quick Note…
There is a four game slate for the afternoon and we are covering that via social media. The picks below cover the nine game main schedule.
Full Schedule For Saturday October 20th, 2018
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Prices are in DraftKings format unless noted.
NHL DFS GPP Plays For Saturday
High Priced Shots
Brayden Schenn ($6,500) — The contrarian play presents itself here because of how pricey Toronto has become. Yes, the Toronto power play first unit should be a part of stacks tonight, but to not look at the St. Louis top line would not be wise. Note, this is not something one should try in every lineup or even half. However, the name of the game in GPP’s is goals and points. Also, Schenn has 13 shots on net in his last three contests. The “SST Line” was one of the best lines in the league last October. The question is will Vladimir Tarasenko wake up from his slumber of sorts tonight. He has just two goals on a whopping 32 shots.
Logan Couture ($6,600) — Couture is a somewhat risky play. The center possesses the ability to shoot the puck a decent amount (three plus shot potential is moderate). However, these two teams have a history as far as having some snooze inducing contests at times. Scoring is still over six goals per night, so it may be worth taking some darts from this late hammer or even a minor stack. There are a few intriguing options at slightly lower prices. That includes Mathew Barzal, Bo Horvat, and Chris Tierney, for starters. The key for New York is this. If the Barzal line gets going early, they have to keep the foot on the pedal to pressure the San Jose top defensive pairings. That is similar to what they did against Los Angeles which opened up the depth scoring. Otherwise, San Jose could start dominating at even strength. Then they draw penalties for that vaunted power play which could get going quickly.
Tyler Johnson ($6,400) — It seemed like a wild debate is in place between Johnson, Jonathan Toews, and Tomas Tatar. That is not a joke. However. all three have enjoyed hot starts and are in good positions tonight. The Tampa Bay forward has increased shot volume with ten shots on net in his last two games played. If he can keep providing that floor every night, and even garner an assist or goal, he just about exceeds value. Toews and Tatar present intriguing options tonight. Again, remember Minnesota is not rested and that plays a little role in choosing Johnson and some Tampa Bay players. However, Chicago-Columbus could be high scoring and so could Montreal-Ottawa. Both are expected to be high-event contests.
Jonathan Marchessault ($7,000) — Marchessault keeps firing the puck at more than four shots per night. Eight points tallied in seven games is noteworthy. One can spend up to Nikita Kucherov from Tampa as well on Saturday as he should enjoy a plus matchup against Minnesota. Minnesota is likely to face 30+ shots in this game and that Tampa Bay power play can strike from anywhere. As for Vegas, John Gibson could face 35+ shots in this tilt. If one is worried of the prospect of Gibson shutting things down, look to the middle priced players. Anyone who was expecting Marchessault to regress forgot about last season where he was supposed to regress too.
Into The Middle
Jonathan Huberdeau ($5,500) — Huberdeau’s ability to run on a streak is very possible. He tends to get hot and stay hot which is why the three points last night in Washington are significant. Florida playing an up and down game is possible. The winger currently is too cheap to be average priced. Detroit and Florida average around seven goals a game combined over that past two plus seasons. It is that underlying fact along with Detroit’s -18 goal differential that could open things up. Do not sleep on Detroit either. If Saturday was not a nine game slate, this could be a game stack. Hell, it has some potential. Look into Detroit’s top six and maybe even one of their value defensemen.
Josh Anderson ($4,600) — It is acceptable to take some risks in this price range. Anderson shoots more than most given his 14-15 minutes of average time on ice (3+ shots per night). Looking into the Columbus-Chicago tilt raises eyebrows as well. Four goals in six games screams a sell high candidate but Chicago’s team defense in its bottom six and pairings is so below average. Dominik Hasek could be in net and it may not make a difference. Shot potential is very high in this game on both sides and sadly Alex DeBrincat is more in the upper tier, otherwise he would be an option as well. Anthony Duclair presents himself as another possible choice and comes in at $600 cheaper.
Dylan Larkin ($5,200) — Larkin priced too low is something we have heard before. Right now, he is at about $1250 per point. His floor is higher than most but Detroit gets a Florida team on no rest and historically they score well in Florida. Shooting at three plus shots a game over the past four contests is encouraging (yes we included a couple posts too). Again, tonight has several prime match-ups and a few that are on the verge of being there. Detroit and Florida offers one of those opportunities at lowered prices. Montreal and Ottawa is probably the other.
Leon Draisaitl ($5,800) — Draisaitl remains lower priced for now and that is great for players. The risk involves how much Connor McDavid is too much given Nashville expended a lot of energy against Calgary. Keep an eye to see who plays in net for Nashville. This is because of Pekka Rinne’s injury in the third period. If he is out and Juuse Saros is in, that could change things for some as far as ownership. Edmonton is on a plus match-up here. It still carries moderate risk because of how much depth Nashville possesses as far as a team defense. However, the Predators penalty kill has been allowing an unusual amount of scoring chances per 60.
Throwing Some Darts
Vince Dunn ($3,500) — Dunn is a power play specialist that gets about as risky as they get. Toronto’s penalty kill can be a little troublesome and that feeds right into St. Louis. When Dunn plays, he typically sees about 25% or more of his time on the man advantage. Fortunately for most, Dunn’s price is still reasonable enough to play him because of the possibility of being scratched. His defensive play may be suspect but his goal potential exists. When a player hawks five plus minutes on the man advantage in one game, he is hard not to notice. Scott Mayfield is also in this category along with Andrew Ladd because they can be all or nothing plays. Even Tyler Bozak could be pondered as he is facing his former team and has been seeing increased amounts of man advantage time.
Cody Eakin ($3,500) — This presents extreme risk because Eakin never shoots the puck a ton (1.3 shots per game). However, Vegas and Anaheim presents one of those games that could surprise on Saturday night. Eakin has tallied three goals on four shots which carries extreme danger. However, in GPP’s, it is about goal scoring and if one can take a dart here, then why not. Val Filppula and Brandon Sutter are dicey low priced options that could be used.
Craig Anderson ($7,100) — Anderson sees a ton of shots (over 35 a night). Overall, his 3.00 goals against average does not look like much but his .925 save percentage is significant. He picks up puck better since he shifted his style of play to more of a VLH. Basically, his stance has helped him adjust better to more chaotic puck situations near the net. Montreal is capable of firing lots of shots from anywhere and everywhere. This dangerous pick is there along with whomever starts for the New York Islanders if the price is right.
Goading The Goalies
Again, our best bet with this slate is to simply wait for confirmations to come in. The problem lies in that there are only a couple confirmations and likely goaltenders so far. Morning skates reveal a few more but alas sometimes the wait can be right until warm-ups on a busy Saturday. Looking towards the lesser games tonight might actually pay off in GPP’s. Also, keep an eye on who starts for teams on no rest and some road opponents. John Gibson may attract more ownership than usual tonight because most feel Vegas could be trending upward. Vegas is capable of shooting a lot so it presents risk/reward. Also, who starts for Vancouver tonight? Again, this is a good question and not an automatic answer.
More picks and choices will be available on Slack and social media later.
Best of luck on Saturday! This will be a fun ride.
