Jonesing for that daily DFS fix with no NBA? No worries, cause we have you covered. This article outlines a few top NHL DFS Picks and Stacks for DraftKings and FanDuel tonight’s six-game slate (2/15) based off Awesemo’s projections. If you’re new to NHL DFS and here are a few articles and videos to get you started:
- The NHL Primer, by Alex ‘Awesemo’ Baker
- Five Rules for NHL DFS Success, by Nolan Kelly
- Using MLB Strategy to Play NHL DFS by Jake Hari
Stay tuned for the Awesemo NHL show at 4 ET today, with Jake Hari and myself
Forward NHL DFS Picks
Top Priced: Auston Matthews: Grades: A, Values: A
It’s going to be tough to get away from the Toronto Maple Leafs tonight, with 3.8 implied total and a solid matchup against the Ottawa Senators on tap. This Leafs top line is getting massive ice time recently, and Auston Matthews is leading the way at 25-27 minutes per game. Over his last 10, he’s averaging five shots per game and has hit the blocked shot bonus twice. The Senators, for their part, are a bottom-ten team in most defensive metrics, including scoring chances against and expected goals against and are allowing the third most shots per game in the NHL. The only real cause for concern is a tough 5v5 matchup against OTT1 who have some solid offensive/defensive numbers so far this year. In addition to projecting highly, Matthews is the third highest value forward on the slate.
Value Option
- Phil Kessel hasn’t done much this season with the Arizona Coyotes, and has just one goal in the last month, but that has caused his price to dip all the way to $3800 on DraftKings. With an upcoming game against the uptempo Washington Capitals, he makes for a nice boom or bust one-off if you’re 3-2-1 stacking tonight.
Defence NHL DFS Picks
Top Priced: Tyson Barrie: Grades: A, Values: A
After finding himself in the doghouse for much of the season under dyspeptic head coach Mike Babcock, Tyson Barrie has blossomed of late. Over his last eight games, Barrie hasn’t played less than 25 minutes, during which he’s averaging 2.5 shots and 2.0 blocks per game. Though the points haven’t come yet, he’ll eventually start producing with that ice-time, on the top power play unit. Ottawa has allowed the third most points to opposing defencemen this year, and the Leafs are currently implied for a slate-high 3.8 goals. He’s a great stacking option with TOR1 (17 minutes on ice with Matthews and Marner last game). Barrie is Awesemo’s only double-A graded defeceman on tonight’s slate.
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Value Option
- With Mark Giordano injured, the Flames are relying more on depth defencemen like Mark Stone and TJ Brodie. Their minutes are up, but the price has yet to correct. Stone is probably the biggest minutes benefactor, going from 15 per game to around 20. Though neither is on the power play, each has a solid chance at the blocked shot bonus. Each player ranks top-five in Awesemo’s bargain ratings among defenceman.
Top NHL DFS Stacks
Top Priced: Vegas Knights’ Second Line: Pacioretty-Karlsson-Stone (Grade: A, Value: A)
Though we don’t have a huge sample size with William Karlsson on this line with Max Pacioretty and Mark Stone, it’s safe to assume that these two, chance generating juggernauts on the flanks will continue to produce at a high level, no matter who is at center. In 25 minutes together this line is averaging a WHOPPING 6.08 expected goals for per 60 minutes. With Chandler Stephenson between Stone and Pacioretty, VGS2 averaged a league high 4.08 xGoals (minimum 100 minutes).
This line gets a double-A grade in Awesemo’s rankings, and offers up 2k-3k in savings off other top lines on the slate. With a home date against the Islanders, they should avoid an elite NYI4 shut down unit (yes you heard that right), and a get far easier matchups against NYI1 and NYI2. The Islanders as a team are bottom five in both high danger chances against and scoring chances against this season.
Update: Jonathan Marchessault is a GTD tonight. If he doesn’t go, upgrade this VGS2 combo even more. Added ice-time and opportunity.
Honorable mention: Toronto Maple Leafs’ Top Line: Marner-Matthews-Hyman
Value Options: Calgary Flames Second Line: Mangiapane-Backlund-Tkahuk (Grade: B, Value: A)
There are lots of reasons to love this trio tonight, including the fact that they’re RED HOT right now, with goals in five straight games. Despite the streak, the price really hasn’t jumped that much, sitting a middling $14000-$14500 on DraftKings and FanDuel. Since uniting, this combo ranks top-15 in the NHL in expected goals for per 60 (3.14) and they get a plus matchup against the Chicago Blackhawks, who rank bottom three in the NHL in scoring chances against, high danger chances against and expected goals against.
The only real problem here is ownership, because these guys aren’t going to catch anyone off guard and they pair up nicely as a filler stack with other top stacks, so tread carefully in GPPs. As an added bonus, pairing them with great value defence plays Mark Stone and TJ Brodie is viable – they’ve averaged 7-10 minutes on ice together since Mark Giordano went down.
Honorable mention: Dallas Stars’ Top Line: Hintz-Seguin-Perry (line may change with injury news)
As EMac would say, good luck NHL DFS Gamers!
