We have a healthy eight-game slate ahead of us with a good mix of stars and values from which to make our NHL DFS picks. Let’s get to it.
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NHL DFS Picks: Center
Dylan Larkin (DET vs. CAR): DraftKings – $6,400; FanDuel – $6,700
The line of Larkin-Mantha-Bertuzzi was great last year and early this season, but injuries have forced them to play apart for large chunks of 2019-20. They have been reunited, though, and that’s important news for us. Going back to last year, that trio has combined for 2.6 expected goals and 3.7 actual goals per 60 minutes.
The matchup against Carolina is not as tough as it once was. Since the injury to defenseman Dougie Hamilton on Jan. 16, the Hurricanes are bottom-10 in the NHL by expected goals against (worse than teams like the Capitals, Rangers and Kings), and 30th by actual goals against. To compound that problem, Brett Pesce was injured in Feb. 22, and their goals against rate has only gotten worse since (though that’s largely a goaltending issue).
Bo Horvat (VAN vs. NYI): DraftKings – $5,600; FanDuel – $5,700
Despite not playing with the elite wingers that Elias Pettersson has, Horvat has 21 goals and 52 points in 68 games, averaging over 2.5 shots per game. His line has been good, skating with Loui Eriksson and Tanner Pearson, as they’ve posted 2.7 expected goals and 2.8 actual goals for per 60 minutes at five-on-five.
What’s more is the matchup tonight with the top line from the Islanders is not particularly difficult. On the season, they’ve posted 2.5 expected goals against (below average) and 2.7 actual goals against (also below average). The Islanders are not the defensive stalwarts that they were last season and that’s part of what makes this matchup appealing.
The biggest issue here is the Islanders don’t take many penalties and Horvat has 11 power play goals this year. The hope is that it’s a good enough five-on-five matchup to make up the difference. On top of that, he usually carries much less ownership than Pettersson, making him a more appealing target as a one-off.
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NHL DFS Picks: Winger
Charles Hudon (MTL vs. NSH): DraftKings – $2,500; FanDuel – $3,100
The Canadiens are going through some injuries now and they’ve completely shuffled around their lines. Tonight, Hudon is expected to skate on a line with Max Domi and Brendan Gallagher. That is pretty cushy slotting for him.
Fantasy players may not be familiar with Hudon; he has played most of this season in the AHL after parts of three seasons in the NHL. He has been great in the AHL this year with 27 goals in 46 games, averaging over three shots per game. Over his last 118 games at the NHL level, Hudon has shot rates similar to John Tavares, Rickard Rakell and Patrik Laine. He is a shooter and a scorer, he just has other issues to his game that make it difficult to stay at the NHL level.
There is good news for Hudon tonight as skating with Gallagher puts him on the wing of one of the best play-driving wingers in the league, and Domi is a player with a wealth of individual skill. If Hudon were to succeed at the NHL level, he’s in a position to do so. He’s a great one-off salary relief target in any format tonight.
Rickard Rakell (ANA vs. OTT): DraftKings – $5,500; FanDuel – $5,600
The Ducks are a bad team but they’re hosting another bad team, which is what late-season NHL DFS is all about. Fortunately for Rakell, he’s been put on a line with two of the three top remaining Anaheim forwards in Adam Henrique and Jakob Silfverberg. The line is due for some regression by shooting percentage, but their expected goals for is still above average and they’re driving the play on a very bad team.
Ottawa coming to town is obviously a good matchup. Following their trade deadline purge where they traded anyone they could, the Senators are 28th by expected goals against as a team. Specific line matchups don’t really matter anymore; this is a bad team from top to bottom. The same could be said for Anaheim, obviously, but at least they have a line of three talented forwards playing together.
To boot, the Senators are one of the most penalized teams in the NHL. No matter the angle from which we look at this game, it’s a good spot for the Ducks and Rakell’s line specifically. He’s fine as a one-off or as part of a stack.
NHL DFS Picks: Defense
Justin Schultz (PIT at NJ): DraftKings – $3,400; FanDuel – $3,900
There isn’t a whole lot too in-depth to write here. As of late, Schultz has been running the top power play unit for the Penguins, with Kris Letang pushed to the second unit. The issue is that New Jersey has one of the best penalty kills in the league, ranking in the top five of most metrics. That has maintained all throughout the season, whether earlier in the year with Taylor Hall in the lineup or now post-trade deadline.
All the same, the Penguins have a lot of talent on the top power play unit and Schultz is exceedingly cheap across the industry. It’s not as if he’s reliant on the power play either, as he’s just shy of 20 minutes a game in his last 10 games. He’s an important part of the blue line, and that’s reflected in his ice time. The power play exposure is the cherry on the sundae.
Mikhail Sergachev (TB at TOR): DraftKings – $5,300; FanDuel – $4,300
On the topic of taking over top power play units, with Victor Hedman potentially out of the lineup, Sergachev would be taking over top power play duties (Hedman is not guaranteed to miss the game, it’s just looking that way. Checking lineups as warm-ups start will be important here). Sergachev, relatively speaking, is a bit cheaper on FanDuel where he’s the 17th-most expensive defenseman on the slate compared to 12th on DraftKings. That’s part of the reason for his inclusion.
Aside from price and power play status, this isn’t a bad matchup for Tampa at five-on-five. Since the calendar turned to 2020, the Leafs are mid-pack by expected goals against and near the bottom of the league by actual goals against. The reason for the discrepancy is bad goaltending, which is another point in our favor here.
With Hedman largely out of the lineup in their last two games, Sergachev has played 25 and 28 minutes. Playing big minutes with a top power play role at $4,300 on FanDuel sounds like a very good price. He’s fine on DraftKings as well, just not as much of a value.
NHL DFS Picks: Stacks
DET1 – Bertuzzi-Larkin-Mantha
As mentioned in the section on Larkin, the Hurricanes have not been very good defensively of late, but their top line hasn’t been very good defensively in general. Their expected goals against per 60 minutes on the year is 2.4, which is well below average. There should be a lot of ownership all across the Carolina lineup tonight, which hopefully means that Detroit will be overlooked. That would be a mistake because this trio is very talented.
MTL1 – Hudon-Domi-Gallagher
Part of this is the price. With Hudon being the stone minimum on DraftKings and near that price on FanDuel, he brings down the average cost of the line by a significant margin. As explained in his section, Hudon isn’t really a pushover either.
What that means for matching is unclear. It’s been a long, long time since we’ve seen Gallagher play away from usual center Phillip Danault. All we can do is go by team matching, and the Predators have a worse expected goals against mark since Jan. 1 than teams like Washington, Los Angeles and Florida.
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