We get our smallest slate of the week, with just five games in total but plenty of good spots to attack. On slates this size we need to ensure we are watching our exposures, and the field’s, as to not over-leverage or come in way over/under on a popular spot. In this article I’ll give my favorite plays by position and hopefully find us some NHL DFS picks on DraftKings and FanDuel for tonight’s slate.
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NHL DFS Picks and Top Stacks | March 19
NHL DFS Picks: Center
Cody Glass (VGK vs. LA)
DraftKings – $3,300
FanDuel – $3,500
With Chandler Stephenson out, Glass has taken over on Vegas’ top line and top powerplay. After posting a 0 in his first game, Glass put up a power-play goal for his fourth overall for the year while playing 17 minutes. In comparison to his normal 14:39 per game, we should expect more from Glass. He has not exactly wowed with his per-60 metrics, averaging less than a shot on goal per contest. The matchup with the Kings isn’t as sweet as we’d probably expect if we are looking at seasonal stats, but recently the Kings penalty kill has run into some troubles. In the last 10 they rank in the bottom eight in chances against and expected goals allowed per 60 but have gotten bailed out with some good goaltending. The linemates of Glass may have more to do with this than the player himself, but Max Pacioretty and Mark Stone are about as good as it gets, and at this price it’s hard to feel jilted in any outcome when full stacking.
Jesperi Kotkaniemi (MTL vs. VAN)
DraftKings – $3,600
FanDuel – $3,500
Similar to Glass, we get a young player who has been promoted and seen an increase in ice time. In this case, though, Kotkaniemi has been promoted with good play and the poor production of Phillip Danault. Before the line change, along with the coaching change, Kotkaniemi was averaging under 14.5 minutes of ice time per game, but since then he has not seen a game with fewer than 16 minutes, playing with Josh Anderson and Jonathan Drouin. Along with the increase in playing time, the Canadiens get a very nice matchup with the Canucks, who have relied an incredible amount on Thatcher Demko for the last nine games. The league’s hottest goalie not named Andrei Vasilevskiy has bailed out their putrid defense, ranking in the bottom three in all possession and scoring metrics (minus high-danger chances per 60) over the last 10 contests. Something has to give at some point with both teams’ five-on-five numbers, and with the Canadiens giving Kotkaniemi better opportunities and linemates, I like dropping down to him.
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NHL DFS Picks: Winger
Kevin Labanc (SJ vs. STL)
DraftKings – $4,600
FanDuel – $4,700
Labanc has always been an offensive complement to any line, and he has found his stride, with 6 goals in the last 10 games and 10 points overall. The Sharks have committed to Labanc playing up top the entire year even with his lack of production early on, and they have been rewarded. Maybe more importantly for this game, he is back on the top power-play unit with his linemates against a St. Louis penalty kill that has seen much better days. Regardless if it’s for the season or for the last 10, they rank bottom three in major penalty-kill metrics. With 1.32 expected goals, Labanc is in the same breath as guys like Mikko Rantanen and Nikolaj Ehlers. The way he’s been going and the way the Blues penalty kill has been going, Labanc absolutely cannot be left off stacks and even makes for a nice underpriced one-off.
Mitch Marner (TOR vs. CGY)
DraftKings – $8,000
FanDuel – $7,600
There are always a bevy of wingers on every slate that can produce. Being at home against a Calgary team that heavily leans on one line to shut down opposing team’s best lines should give Marner some freedom. The Leafs should be able to take full advantage of their last change at home in this one. Looking at their other lines, though, is a different story on the defensive side, with all carrying negative expected goals for numbers and possession numbers just eclipsing 50%. In comparison, the Leafs top line as it stands now carries a 60% expected goals share and 62% high-danger chances rate. Marner has also been good individually all year, with 39 points (11 goals, 28 assists) and a 52% Corsi-for. Along with that, we have also seen an uptick in shot production since the Auston Matthews wrist situation, as over the last five Marner has fired 22 shots on goal with 5 points to show for it.
Calgary is a team that has relied a lot on its goaltending to fix any leaks, but with Jacob Markstrom‘s struggles, it could be another 7-goal night for their opponent.
[MARCHMADNESS]
NHL DFS Picks: Defensemen
Erik Karlsson (SJ vs. STL)
DraftKings – $4,600
FanDuel – $4,400
Karlsson is on the comeback trail from a horrendous start to the year that hit -8. He has gotten all the way back to -2 in a few weeks and put up 6 points in the last 10 games since getting healthy and being put up on the top power-play unit. It was well known that Karlsson was battling a groin injury, which was affecting his skating. But since coming back and getting a promotion, he has looked fast and motivated. The stats back it up, including 20 shots on target. In terms of fantasy, Karlsson has put up double-digit points in six of the 10 games as well and upped the peripherals with 15 blocked shots. I could have copied and pasted a lot from the Labanc section because this sets up similarly for Karlsson getting over 20 minutes per game at home in a great matchup at a fantastic value tag on both sites.
NHL DFS Picks: Goalie
Cal Petersen (LA vs. VGK)
DraftKings – $6,700
FanDuel – $7,200
The Kings have been better than expected on defense but are still allowing plenty of opportunities; that can be terrifying but can also be beneficial. At five-0n-five the Kings are still bottom half in shots allowed, chances allowed and high-danger chances per 60. But oddly enough, on the penalty kill they have done a fantastic job funneling shots outside, with a bottom-five chances against but a top-10 scoring chances against and the fifth-best save percentage. Often this would give us pause going up against the Golden Knights, but they are battling some injuries and Petersen has played well for most of the season, carrying the ninth-best save percentage (92.2) and 10th-best goals allowed (2.54). It also needs to be recognized that this is a five-game slate and getting different at goalie is a simple way to gain leverage with popular stacks.
Top Stacks
VGK1
Max Pacioretty – Cody Glass – Mark Stone
With positive leverage and a manageable price on both sites, there’s little not to like with this trio. On DraftKings especially this line is barely carrying 10% projected ownership, with over a 15% chance of being a top-two stack. Getting full correlation also adds to the attraction and the upside of this line.
SJ1
Evander Kane – Logan Couture – Kevin Labanc
This is a fully correlated line with positive leverage and projected ownership around 10%. Maybe even more positively, this line gets a great power-play matchup with St. Louis. If St. Louis can stay out of the box, this line has still been very good at all strengths, with positive possession and scoring metrics across the board. Considering its components, that should come as no surprise; Evander Kane can give us a hat trick on any night, along with 3 minor penalties.
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