After a hefty Monday slate, we are back down to five games for today’s NHL DFS slate due to Bruins – Islanders getting postponed by COVID protocols. Also unlike yesterday, and many of the recent slates, there is only one game on a back-to-back (Colorado – Arizona). With lots of nice spots to go through, let’s dive into the DraftKings and FanDuel NHL DFS picks for Tuesday, March 23rd.
NHL DFS Picks for DraftKings & FanDuel | March 23
NHL DFS Picks: Center
Aleksander Barkov (FLA vs CHI)
FanDuel – $7,700
DraftKings – $8,300
We could likely just list the entire Florida top six (minus Alexander Wennberg) and feel pretty good about what we have, but that would be far too easy. The Blackhawks have been reeling of late, losing six of seven. The main issues have been bad goaltending and the defense we expected, which have combined to allow 29 goals over that span. Barkov has taken the next step up in his career and has to be considered for the MVP with his production and the Panthers’ success. He has led the team to a 20-7-4 record, tied for third best in the league. Centering a line with two younger players, whom we may see later, Barkov paces the team with 37 points and 112 shots. Also centering the league’s 10th-best power play at 25.5% can’t hurt, as the Blackhawks have had a horrible time in the last 10 games preventing power-play scores and rank 28th in in penalty killing. There is not much selling that needs to be done here, but with other big names like Nathan MacKinnon on the slate, Barkov makes for a nice pivot in all formats.
NHL DFS Picks: Winger
Jason Robertson (DAL vs TBL)
FanDuel – $4,100
DraftKings – $4,200
Sites are starting to catch on to Robertson’s production, but we are still getting good value at this price, especially on a five-game slate where we’ll need some differentiation. For the first half of the season Robertson was playing fourth-line minutes and spending time on the taxi squad, but over the last 11 he’s been consistently in the top six and getting more minutes and producing. Tallying 10 points and 31 shots on goal, he has averaged 13.72 fantasy points per game on FanDuel over this span. With the Stars’ very dynamic lines situation, we can still count on Robertson to produce individually if given the minutes, with a 55% Corsi-for and leading all rookies at 2.26 assists per 60. If Roope Hintz is back in the fold for the Stars on Tuesday, expect more of the same, as the speedy trio on Dallas’ second line has been on a tear.
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NHL DFS Picks: Defense
Gustav Forsling (FLA vs CHI)
FanDuel – $3,700
DraftKings – $3,800
We always look for a floor with our cheap defensemen, but Forsling is just as much a ceiling play in this matchup. The price tag definitely does not meet the value, as Forsling has averaged over 3 shots per game for the year — 40 in 18 games — while also blocking 20 shots. The Panthers trust Forsling enough to give him more ice time (18:26 per game) than veteran Keith Yandle, and they have him quarterbacking the second power-play unit, which should make us most excited. Since coming back from a minor injury, Forsling has not seen less than 19 minutes of ice time and has no games with fewer than 2 shots or blocks. He is far too cheap, especially on FanDuel, and makes for a nice punt in cash and a great complement to Florida stacks with correlation on all top three lines.
Alexandre Carrier (NSH vs DET)
FanDuel – $3,500
DraftKings – $ 4,300
Carrier has been stepping in for the major absences on the blue line with Roman Josi and Ryan Ellis both out. In his first three years in the organization, Carrier only got action in three NHL games. Since being called up, however, he has been at the controls of the team’s top power play to save Mattias Ekholm some extra minutes. Along with getting a cushy power-play spot, he has also averaged just under 21 minutes in nine games while blocking 15 shots and recording a goal and an assist. Detroit, as we know, is not good at much of anything, and with them having the third-worst penalty kill in the league, Carrier even offers up a nice ceiling. Similar to Forsling, I like Carrier in all formats, and with the Predators’ very uncorrelated lines he works with any stack.
NHL DFS Picks: Goalies
Mackenzie Blackwood (NJ vs PHI)
FanDuel – $6,900
DraftKings – $7,200
Catching a team on a back-to-back is always beneficial, so getting Blackwood as one of the cheapest goalies on both sites has good expected value. As we know, goalie is very reliant on its defense, and the Devils have been surprisingly good at suppressing opponents; they rank in the upper half in all scoring-chances-against metrics. Coming off two straight wins, and with save percentages of 97.2% and 94.3% in those games, Blackwood’s form is back after a string of bad starts. One last plus to this matchup is the Flyers struggle on the power play; at just 19%, they are 20th in the league. As a result, if the Devils lose discipline, they may be able to get away with it.
Top Stack – COL1
Gabriel Landeskog – Nathan MacKinnon – Mikko Rantanen
There’s just no way around this line (again). Their big price on both sites is a bit prohibitive, but it also creates leverage in the way of ownership. With a top-two stack percentage over 30 on both sites, there is only one line within 10% of them with positive leverage (TB2). The Avalanche have looked absolutely dominant, scoring 24 goals over the last four contests. The Coyotes are putrid defensively and had zero answer for any line Colorado threw at them. With the sizeable win last night, this line should be fresh again to carve up the ice.
Over-Owned Stack – PHI2
Travis Konecny – Jimmy Hayes – Scott Laughton
The Flyers have been in a tailspin for a while now. They are losing primarily due to their terrible goaltending, but their team production is also down across the board over that span, and this line is also part of that problem. In a matchup with the Devils’ above-average defense at even strength, I don’t see the upside with this line, and neither does the Top Stack Tool. With strongly negative leverage on both sites, gamers definitely need to be aware of how much they are rolling out this trio.
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