NHL DFS: Thursday's Best DraftKings & FanDuel Lineup Picks

Though there have been some cancellations, we still have a big 10-game slate for our NHL DFS picks tonight. It would also behoove DFSers to pay attention to news today because Vegas already has a positive COVID test and may be more pending. That game tonight against Anaheim is still on for now, but this is obviously a fluid situation. Being in our premium Slack channel to stay on top of the news can be a big help. Let’s dig into some DraftKings and FanDuel fantasy hockey lineup picks for Thursday, Feb. 11.

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NHL DFS Power Plays: DraftKings & FanDuel Picks | 2/11

NHL DFS Picks: Centers

Pierre-Luc Dubois (WPG vs OTT)

DraftKings – $4,200

FanDuel – $4,900

Dubois made his debut for the Jets a couple nights ago against Calgary and skated just 13 minutes with no shots on goal. It was not a great start, but that was on the road in Calgary for his first game in over two weeks. Now he has his legs under him with a home game against Ottawa.

According to HockeyViz, with the duo of Brady Tkachuk and Thomas Chabot off the ice, the Senators are allowing over 2.8 expected goals per 60 minutes. Rated across the league, that mark is worse than an average player on the worst defensive team in the league. Dubois and his linemates should avoid those matchups tonight as they play down the lineup, and thus should have the run of play. At his price he is a solid one-off for tournaments tonight.

Tomas Hertl (SJ at LA)

DraftKings – $4,800

FanDuel – $5,300

These two teams played on Tuesday, and in that game Hertl and his linemates largely avoided the top line for Los Angeles at even strength. With the top line for the Kings off the ice this year, the team is allowing over three expected goals per 60 minutes. As mentioned in the section on Dubois, a number anywhere near that high is abysmal. As such, Hertl, Timo Meier and Ryan Donato should get soft matchups in this contest.

Hertl is currently shooting at a career-low rate, and that is a concern, but it’s also why he’s reasonably priced. He still plays on a good line, and they’re going to get a good matchup tonight against the depth of the Kings. He is fine as a one-off in any format or as part of a line stack in a tournament.

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Yanni Gourde (TB at FLA)

DraftKings – $3,300

FanDuel – $4,400

It has been a solid start to the season for Gourde, with 4 goals and 6 points in 11 games. What’s more is he’s averaging two shots on goal per game, a career high for him. He is still playing down the lineup, but they are spreading out the ice time a bit as he’s averaged 16:47 per game for the last five games. That isn’t third-line deployment.

Tonight Gourde and his linemates likely will get the depth from Florida, and you’re probably sensing a theme with today’s picks. Florida’s top line has been great, but the second line is sporting a 45 percent expected goal share and 2.4 expected goals against, very bad marks for that team, and the third line is worse. Gourde will also avoid the top defense pair of MacKenzie Weegar and Aaron Ekblad, more good matchup news. He is fine as a salary saver in any format tonight, particularly on DraftKings.

NHL DFS Picks: Wingers

Alex Killorn (TB at FLA)

DraftKings – $4,000

FanDuel – $5,500

What was just said about Gourde could equally apply to Killorn, as he and his linemates should avoid the top line from Florida tonight, and that means good matchups in game. Now, that line hasn’t been very good offensively this year, with 1.6 expected goals for per 60 minutes, and that is what is going to keep us from three-man stacking this trio. But, as mentioned, it’s a good five-on-five matchup.

Beyond that, Killorn is still the net-front option on the power play, and the Panthers have a bottom-five penalty kill by expected goals (mid-pack by actual goals allowed). Because of the lack of correlation on his line, Killorn is fine to use by himself in any format but is more tailored for a tournament play by himself as part of a power-play stack on DraftKings.

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Alex DeBrincat (CHI vs. CBJ)

DraftKings – $6,900

FanDuel – $6,600

Here is something that may surprise a lot of people: This year the Blue Jackets (2.18) and the Blackhawks (2.28) have a very similar expected goals against per 60 minutes at five-on-five. Over the course of a full 82-game season, we’re talking about a gap of 6 goals. They really have performed similarly defensively this year.

DeBrincat has been on a tear since re-joining the team from the COVID list, with 20 shots and 6 points in four games. He has played at least 21 minutes in three of those four games and joins a duo in Dylan Strome and Dominik Kubalik, who have been good offensively together this year. DeBrincat’s price is high, but on a slate with the Penguins, Lightning, Oilers, Jets and Hurricanes, there are a lot of other expensive options that will chew into his ownership rate. He is a solid one-off in tournaments or as part of a stack.

Josh Anderson (MTL vs. EDM)

DraftKings – $5,400

FanDuel – $5,000

The Oilers are in town, so this game will garner a lot of attention. Earlier in the season the Canadiens had often used Anderson against the team’s opposing top line, but their latest game saw Montreal’s top line take the top competition. That frees up Anderson to skate against the opposition’s second line or the Leon Draisaitl line tonight. That Draisaitl line has been absolutely dreadful defensively this year to the tune of nearly 2.8 expected goals per 60, and the only reason they haven’t been buried is they are somehow getting .960 goaltending. That won’t last, and the Anderson line has been excellent in their own right this year. Bet on regression and a good matchup here.

Just beware of Montreal line changes. They moved around their top line a bit at the end of their game last night.

Brock McGinn (CAR at DAL)

DraftKings – $2,800

FanDuel – $3,300

This is a salary play. The matchup isn’t very good, but the line of Sebastian Aho, Andrei Svechnikov and Brock McGinn has been out-of-this-world great to the tune of 3.9 expected goals for per 60 minutes and a 69 percent expected goal share. Those numbers will come down, but it speaks to just how well they’ve been playing this season. McGinn is the third wheel, but he has played around 18 minutes his last two games as that line continues to churn. For those not wanting to outright stack the line in this matchup, looking to McGinn as a one-off for salary relief makes sense.

NHL DFS Picks: Defensemen

Ryan Ellis (NSH vs. DET)

DraftKings – $5,700

FanDuel – $4,900

There should be a lot of ownership on Roman Josi tonight, and there should be — he’s a great defenseman in a great matchup. But that affords us an opportunity to go a bit off the board with Ellis.

Though the power play isn’t worth a lot, the Predators are playing a bottom-10 team by expected goal share at five-on-five, and Ellis is getting top power-play minutes at the moment. He is also averaging over two shots and two blocks per game, which means he’s a threat for the combo meal shot-block and shot-take bonuses. He should play in the mid-20s and makes a nice differentiating point for tournaments tonight. I would still use Josi in cash games, though.

Christian Djoos (DET vs NSH)

DraftKings – $4,100

FanDuel – $3,700

In my opinion, Djoos is a true NHL-caliber, puck-moving defenseman. For his career his shot-assist rate (or the rate at which his passes turn into shots by his teammates) is inside the 80th percentile league-wide. That is a great mark, something we like to see in a guy running a power play. Nashville has a bottom-10 penalty kill by any measure and bottom-five by many. Djoos is relatively cheaper on FanDuel, and because he may not play 20 minutes, it makes more sense to play him there than on DraftKings.

NHL DFS Picks: Goalies

Jake Oettinger (DAL vs. CAR)

DraftKings – $7,700

FanDuel – $8,000

The first-round pick from 2017 is off to a fine start, with a .919 save percentage in five games. The real reason for including him tonight is they face Carolina, the team that is taking the most shots per 60 minutes at five-on-five in the league. We like shot volume for our goalies, and that puts Oettinger in play in almost any format, but particularly tournaments. If the starter ends up being Anton Khudobin, he’s fine as well, but be aware of the price difference between him and Oettinger on DraftKings.

Cal Petersen (LA vs. SJ)

DraftKings – $7,400

FanDuel – $6,700

Like Oettinger, Petersen should face volume tonight as the Sharks are a top-10 team by shot volume at five-on-five, yet the Kings are near the bottom 10 in the league by shot volume allowed. In his very brief career, Petersen leads the league in high-danger save percentage, one of our best indicators of a good goalie. We don’t have a big sample, but good results in a small sample are better than bad results. He is worth rostering in tournaments tonight, especially on FanDuel.

Stacks

San Jose2: Hertl – Meier – Donato

Montreal2: Anderson – Suzuki – Drouin

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Author

Michael Clifford

Michael has been writing about fantasy hockey for over a decade, and has been playing Daily Fantasy for just as long. He has contributed to both the Chicago Tribune and the Boston Herald, has worked for Rogers Sportsnet in Canada and is now in his fifth season with Stokastic. He lives in Fredericton, New Brunswick, Canada, and can be reached on Twitter @SlimCliffy.