There is a very healthy 10-game fantasy hockey slate from which to make our NHL DFS picks tonight, so let’s not waste any time getting to them best plays on DraftKings and FanDuel for Thursday, March 4.
As always, for current information and projections, become an Awesemo subscriber and check out our tools and Premium Slack chat.
NHL DraftKings + FanDuel DFS Picks | March 4
NHL DFS Picks: Center
Vincent Trocheck (CAR vs. DET)
DraftKings – $6,600
FanDuel – $5,700
After a couple of down seasons, Trocheck has found the form of a couple years ago that has led to 12 goals and 19 points in 21 games on the season. His shooting percentage (19%) is high and will come down, but he’s also averaging 3 shots per game, a very solid floor from which to work. Two big reasons for using Trocheck tonight would be that the opponent is thin without Dylan Larkin in the lineup, and Trocheck’s price is much lower over on FanDuel than DraftKings. On FanDuel he is very hard to pass up at his price given that he has greatly out-produced most every other center in his price range. He is fine to use on his own in any format on FanDuel or as part of a stack on either site.
Anthony Cirelli (TB at CHI)
DraftKings – $4,300
FanDuel – $5,700
It seems like Tampa’s second-line center is often over-looked, and it appears he’s a great value today on DraftKings despite the fact that his 82-game pace this year is as follows: 30 goals, 41 assists, 152 shots. His shooting is a bit high at 19.2%, but he shot 15.3% over his first three seasons. This is high, but it is not far off from what he’s achieved in the past. Tampa Bay faces a Chicago team that doesn’t take a lot of penalties, coming in 23rd in power-play opportunities given, so this matchup for the Lightning is more about five-on-five than the power play. That’s good for Cirelli, as his value is derived from five-on-five rather than the power play. He is better suited as a one-off for tournaments on DraftKings but can be used as part of a line stack on either site.
NHL DFS Picks: Winger
Kyle Connor (WPG at MTL)
DraftKings – $6,400
FanDuel – $6,800
One of the secrets of the NHL season to date is that the Canadiens just cannot stay out of the penalty box; they lead the NHL at 3.91 power plays given to the opponent per game. Even worse is that they’re 28th in the NHL by expected goals against while short-handed and 21st by goals against per 60 minutes when down a man. They take more penalties than anyone else, and their penalty kill is in the bottom third of the league. That is a terrible combination for the Habs but a great one for Connor tonight, as he’s averaging 3:22 a night at five-on-four and leads the team in shots with the man advantage. He is the power-play trigger guy, and he will get his opportunities tonight. A road visit probably means he’s not viable for cash games, but he is viable as a one-off for tournaments or as part of a Jets power-play stack.
Latest NHL DFS Content
- NHL DFS Picks Today: Money Making Matthew Tkachuk (April 23)
- DraftKings Fantasy Hockey Cheat Sheet: The Best NHL DFS Stacks Today | Steven Stamkos and the Lightning (April 23)
- NHL DFS Picks Today: Jumping On Jack Eichel (April 22)
- NHL DFS Picks Today: Stack Toronto’s Startes Today (April 20)
- NHL DFS Picks Today: Nasty Nathan MacKinnon (April 18)
- Stokastic DFS on Youtube
Denis Gurianov (DAL vs. CBJ)
DraftKings – $4,400
FanDuel – $4,900
The secret is out: Columbus isn’t as good defensively as years prior. Their expected goals against are still fine (2.11 per 60 minutes) but in line with Detroit (2.16), and their actual goals against are close as well (2.57 versus 2.46). This isn’t an elite defensive team, but what they do well is not taking a lot of penalties. Dallas has had a lot of value come from their power play this year, particularly guys like Joe Pavelski and Alexander Radulov. That is not so much the case with Gurianov, who has 5 of 11 points with the man advantage (Pavelski is at 12 of 20 and Radulov at 6 of 11). Gurianov got Roope Hintz back last game as his center, and their numbers together (55.4% expected goal share) are excellent this season. Gurianov’s price puts him in range as a one-off for tournaments.
Alexis Lafreniere (NYR at NJ)
DraftKings – $3,400
FanDuel – $3,700
The matchup tonight with New Jersey has inflated the prices of the Rangers skaters across the board, except for 2020’s first overall pick. He had a slow start to the season, with just 1 goal and 0 assists in 15 games, skating 14:31 a night. In the five games since, he has 4 points and is averaging 15:42 of ice time per night, including two straight nights of increasing ice time, culminating in a season-high 18:35 a couple nights ago. The line of Lafreniere, Mika Zibanejad and Pavel Buchnevich similarly struggled earlier in the season – 37% expected goal share through the first 10 games – but has improved to 46.3% in the last four weeks. It still is not great, but it’s good enough against a New Jersey team that has a worse expected goals against rate than the Sharks and Coyotes.
NHL DFS Picks: Defensemen
Shayne Gostisbehere (PHI at PIT)
DraftKings – $5,400
FanDuel – $3,900
After a couple really bad years, Gostisbehere has started to look like the guy of 2017, and it’s not a mirage; he has 3 points in his last four games and his offensive impact on expected goals is a full standard deviation above league average. In other words, he looks like the puck-moving offensive dynamo he was in his first couple seasons in the league. He has played between 19 and 22 minutes for 10 straight games now, so it seems he’s solidified his role on the team. Beyond that is his price on FanDuel. It has come up a lot on DraftKings but not nearly as much on FanDuel, and tonight they get a Pittsburgh team that is still without Sidney Crosby. Gostisbehere has even started to shoot more, as he’s averaging 2.4 shots per game over his last 10 and has the top power-play role. He is a target in any format on FanDuel and can be considered in Philadelphia stacks for GPPs on DraftKings.
Mattias Ekholm (NSH vs. FLA)
DraftKings – $4,000
FanDuel – $4,100
As long as Ryan Ellis is out of the lineup for Nashville and Ekholm’s price remains in this range on either site, he’s as close as it gets to a must-play. I don’t like using that term because it makes it seem like he’s a lock to produce, and those guys don’t exist in hockey; the game is too random. But he played nearly 23 minutes without Ellis in the lineup and will get secondary power-play minutes. Either way, 23 minutes seems like a good target, and any player playing that level of ice time at this price is worth rostering for fantasy hockey players.
Goalies
Connor Hellebuyck (WPG at MTL)
DraftKings – $7,500
FanDuel – $8,200
Montreal leads the league in shots taken per 60 minutes at all strengths (34.5) by a wide margin (Florida 32.9) and that puts Hellebuyck firmly on our radar for tonight. What is more here is that Winnipeg is allowing the sixth-most shots against but does not take many penalties (and the Habs have a mid-pack power play anyway). This is a good mix of a great goalie on a team that allows a lot of shots facing a team that takes a lot of shots. Hellebuyck is one of my top goalies on the slate.
Top Stacks
WPG PP – Connor – Scheifele – Wheeler
NYI1 – Barzal – Lee – Eberle
Follow us on all of our social channels! Check out our Twitter, Facebook, Instagram and YouTube for more great Awesemo content.
Looking for more fantasy hockey and NHL DFS picks content? We have loads of fantasy hockey articles, data, cheat sheets and more on the Awesemo NHL home page. Just click HERE.
Stats from Evolving Hockey and Natural Stat Trick
