The break in the other big sport has all eyes on NHL DFS contests tonight, and the league has a solid six-game slate lined up for us. With three games totaled at 6 and the other three coming in at 5.5, we should have plenty of fireworks and a fair amount of daily fantasy hockey scoring to choose from. Our goal here is to parse through some of the noise and identify the leading NHL DFS picks for you as you put together your DraftKings and FanDuel daily fantasy hockey lineups. Using Awesemo’s premium proprietary player projections and the top stacks tool, we will highlight several players and situations that will be advantageous and help your team rocket up the leaderboard.
As always, be sure to check our premium Slack for crucial lineup information in the 20 to 30 minutes leading up to every game’s lock. With the COVID-19 pandemic still looming, teams have taxi squads and are ready to fill positions daily as they scratch players. Our Slack chat is hands down one of the best places to get news and line change notifications.
NHL Power Plays: DraftKings + FanDuel DFS Picks | March 5
NHL DFS Picks: Centers
Nathan MacKinnon ($8,900 DraftKings/$8,300 FanDuel), A/B(A) Grades
MacKinnon is one of the night’s highest-graded value centers on both sites despite coming in with the slate’s highest salary at the position. He is expected to play tonight, though he suffered a brutal headshot on a hit from Joachim Blichfeld during last night’s game against the Sharks. Assuming MacKinnon skates, he should be an excellent play on both sites.
For the season MacKinnon has 22 points (5 goals, 17 assists) in the team’s 19 games, slightly down from his 1.35 points per game last season. The dynamic top line center put up a 93-point season in just 69 games in the pandemic-shortened year, scoring 35 times and notching the assist on 58 other goals. MacKinnon is a frequent and effective shooter, putting 4.11 shots on goal per game this season after leading the league in the category each of the last two seasons.
MacKinnon centers the top line for the Avalanche, skating with Gabriel Landeskog and Mikko Rantanen. The trio has significant time together on the ice. Since the start of last season they have 539:49 minutes together. The line has a tremendous 59.51% Corsi-for percentage, dominating puck possession at five-on-five. They have an expected goals for percentage of 63.1% that outstrips their goals for percentage of 55.6%, and they have generated a whopping 128 high-danger chances while yielding just 69 of them. Interestingly, they have scored in 14 of those situations while yielding 13 goals, leaving them with just51.85% high-danger goals in the sample.
MacKinnon is a standout player who can be rostered as a pricey one-off, but he makes a better play stacked with his linemates. The top unit for Colorado ranks as Awesemo’s No. 2 stack in the top line stacks tool, and they have a monster leverage score on the slate since the public seems reluctant to pay up for them. Against the league-worst Ducks, it would be wise to spend up for some under-owned firepower.
William Karlsson ($5,000 DraftKings/$5,800 FanDuel), C/B Grades
The center spot is relatively flat on both sites tonight. After MacKinnon and Patrice Bergeron, we immediately start looking toward the mid-range and value plays on the board. Karlsson is one of the higher-rated plays for fantasy scoring upside that also ranks highly as a value play on both sites. He is not a flashy option, but he slots in at the right price and reliably sees 18:35 on the ice while getting time on the team’s second power-play unit.
Karlsson is off to a good start this year, with 16 points (6-10) in the team’s 19 games. The current apex of his career was in the 2017-18 season when he put up a 78 points (43-35) in 82 games in the team’s first season. The following season was a letdown; Karlsson managed just 56 points (24-32) in a full 82-game season, though he bounced back somewhat last year, putting up 46 points (15-31) in 63 games. Karlsson puts 1.84 shots on goal per game, though he does not block many. That limits the padding of his overall stats, but he centers a line that ranks in the top 10 on Awesemo’s line stacks tool.
The second line for the Golden Knights sees significant ice time and has been a unit for a large sample. From the start of last season, they have seen 607;57 together, putting up a 56.45% Corsi-for percentage. The line has scored 30 goals at even strength, yielding 28, though they have an expected goals percentage of 59.52%. They generate a good number of high-danger chances, coming up with 127 and converting on 18 of them.
Karlsson’s line is inexpensive and grades out well, but they will be heavily owned by the public. Getting to them in small doses or perhaps pairing Karlsson and one of his wingers would be a strong approach. Alternately, loading up on the team’s second power play could be an angle to get to the center’s value and production in a different way than the field.
Additional Center Values
Center is a position that is all about value today. Top-end options include Patrice Bergeron. Mid-range, poorly graded centers include Brayden Point, Logan Couture and Anze Kopitar. Value options are Nick Schmaltz (FanDuel), Ryan Getzlaf, Oskar Sundqvist, Yanni Gourde and David Krejci.
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NHL DFS Picks: Wingers
Alex Ovechkin ($8,200 DraftKings/$7,900 FanDuel), A/D(B) Grades
NHL DFS point projections pick up as we hit the wings, with numerous players grading out with strong projections and rankings. Ovechkin is on the shortlist of high-end plays on the wing that could provide a bit of value despite their big sticker prices. Ovechkin is a better value on FanDuel, where he slots in inexpensively. On DraftKings his price is up, but he is still firmly in play given the scoring upside.
Ovechkin is having another strong season, with 17 points (7-10) in the team’s 18 games. Now seventh in goals scored in league history, he has plenty left in the tank and is still lethal in the slot. Ovechkin put up 48 goals in 68 games last year, totaling 67 points and 13 goals coming on the power play. Ovechkin has two power-play goals this season, manning the point with his deadly shot on the team’s top unit. He puts 3.77 shots on goal per game and is a force up and down the ice.
Ovechkin is expected to skate on the left side of Evgeny Kuznetsov and Conor Sheary, a line that has just 25:10 together since the start of last season. They have a 59.62% Corsi-for percentage in that small sample, yielding 1 goal and scoring none, though their expected goals for percentage is 62.34% and they have created 7 high-danger chances in a short amount of time. The line ranks inside the top 10 on Awesemo’s top line stacks tool, and they are not prohibitively expensive relative to similarly ranked units.
David Pastrnak ($9,100 DraftKings/$8,400 FanDuel) A/B(A) Grades
Boston’s top line is no big secret to NHL DFS players, although ownership could be interesting with some additional attention on the sport tonight. The line is expensive across the top, with Pastrnak and his pals slotting in as both the most expensive and highest-ranked stack on both sites tonight. Given the price, they will be under-owned by the general public. Awesemo’s leverage rating is also the top mark on both sites, making this another play to pay up for where possible.
Boston has played just 13 games this season, and Pastrnak has scored 10 goals, adding 9 assists for a dynamite 19-point start. He has peppered opposing goaltenders with 3.84 shots on goal per game, and his average ice time is up slightly this year, at 19:08. He is coming off the best year of his young career, racking up 95 points (48-47) in just 70 games. The two seasons prior, he put up 80 and 81 points, playing in 82 games the first of those seasons, but just 66 in 2018-19.
Pastrnak, Brad Marchand and Bergeron have accumulated a significant 781:12 skating together since the start of last season. The line dominates with a 59.56% Corsi-for percentage. They have an actual goals-for percentage of 66.67%, scoring 56 times and yielding just 28 goals at even strength. They have a monster 154 high-danger chances and a 55.8% high-danger chances for percentage, converting on 30 of their opportunities. This is a major force of a line, and it is well worth paying up to get to the combination or to just a piece of it in Pastrnak on his own.
Jeff Carter ($4,300 DraftKings/$4,100 FanDuel) D/B(A) Grades
Knowing that we’re going to need some value line stacks to go along with our expensive NHL DFS picks leads us to bargain shopping some second lines. The Kings second line has both a reasonable expectation for some upside and a low price. Carter is an inexpensive veteran wing who still sees plenty of ice time, averaging 17:05 this season. He is off to a solid start, putting up 12 points (4-8) in the team’s 21 games, a bit of a bounce back from the 27 points he put up in 60 games last season and the 33 in 76 games the year before. Carter is still a frequent and willing shooter, putting 3.04 on goal on the average.
He skates on the right side of Gabriel Vilardi and Andreas Athanasiou, though the line has only been together for 28:58 at even strength since the start of last season. They rank out with a positive puck possession metric, coming in at 53.06% Corsi-for in the small sample, and they have a 2-1 goals-for advantage and a 70.07% expected goals-for percentage. They generate opportunities, creating 6 high-danger chances while yielding just 1 in the small sample, scoring on 2 of the chances. The line is not one of the highest-output selections of the night, but they are here for value. They will not be overly popular, though their ownership ranks somewhere near their probability of being a top-two stack.
Additional Wing Values
There are strong wing options up and down the board on both sites tonight. A few names that are in play everywhere include Patrick Kane, Max Pacioretty, Steven Stamkos and Brad Marchand. Value options include Mark Stone, Kevin Fiala, Timo Meier and Dominik Kubalik.
NHL DFS Picks: Defensemen
Brent Burns ($6,600 DraftKings/$6,300 FanDuel) B/B(A) Grades
We can roster Burns at will anywhere he is affordable, which is unlikely to be very often. Burns is simply one of the top NHL DFS picks on the blue line and has been for years. He has an incredible ledger throughout his career, putting up 83 points in the team’s 82 game season in 2018-19. That year saw him record 16 goals and a whopping 67 assists, with 28 points coming on the power play. He is well worth the salary despite what could be called a slow start.
In the team’s first 20 games, Burns has just 11 points, putting up 4 goals and adding 7 assists. He still registers gargantuan totals in ice time, currently clocking in at 27:24 per game, a career high. Burns adds more than 1 blocked shot per game, helping pad his stats significantly when combined with his 2.9 shots on goal per game. He ranks as one of the top options on the slate, though he will be challenging to roster at his cost. Burns is a reasonable salary pivot, but the opportunity cost in getting to him instead of a full-line stack elsewhere could be lethal.
Ryan Graves ($4,400 DraftKings/$4,200 FanDuel) B/A Grades
Taking a dip in the value end of the defenseman pool — which we will most likely need to do frequently in building out these expensive NHL DFS stacks tonight — Graves stands out as a strong option on both sites. He is underpriced for the potential upside in his 19:07 average ice time on the team’s top pair. Graves does not get power-play time, and he is off to a slow start in the points column, with just 3 in the team’s first 19 games, all on assists.
Graves does a fair share of his fantasy scoring in the shots department, on both ends. Last year he managed 9 goals, 17 assists and a noteworthy +40 on the year. Graves blocked 150 shots in those games and put 134 on the opposing goal, averages of 2.17 and 1.94 per game. This year he is averaging 1.73 blocks and 2.10 shots on goal per game. For the salary, he slots in as a solid value play that enables us to get to more appealing options for upside. Graves is not flashy, but he should provide a steady, high floor for the investment.
Additional Defenseman Values
There are numerous top defensemen who are coming in with strong value grades on both sites. The high end of the list includes Victor Hedman, John Carlson and Alex Pietrangelo. On the value end, we can look to Torey Krug, Connor Murphy and Mikhail Sergachev.
Top Stacks
Boston 1: Brad Marchand – Patrice Bergeron – David Pastrnak
Colorado 1: Gabriel Landeskog – Nathan MacKinnon – Mikko Rantanen
Vegas 1: Max Pacioretty – Chandler Stephenson – Mark Stone
Value Stacks
Vegas 2: Jonathan Marchessault – William Karlsson – Reilly Smith
Washington 2: Jakub Vrana – Nicklas Backstrom – Tom Wilson
Tampa 3: Barclay Goodrow – Yanni Gourde – Tyler Johnson
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