DraftKings and FanDuel NHL DFS Picks: We have a massive 11-game slate tonight and there is no shortage of options to pick from. Tonight is a good night to play whatever matchup or team you like and not really worry about ownership too much. The size of the slate will lower the ownerships across the board for most teams. In this Power Plays article, Jeff Votteler breaks down the slate and gives you some of his top picks at each position, including Nathan MacKinnon and Kevin Fiala as well as some of his favorite line stacks.
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NHL Schedule for Thursday Feb. 13, 2020
|Dallas||6||Toronto -134||7:00 p.m.|
|Edmonton||6||Tampa Bay||7:00 p.m.|
|Philadelphia^||6.5||Florida ¥ -129||7:00 p.m.|
|Detroit||5.5||New Jersey -180||7:00 p.m.|
|Arizona^ -128||5.5||Ottawa ¥||7:30 p.m.|
|NY Islanders^||5.5||Nashville -135||8:00 p.m.|
|NY Rangers||6||Minnesota -131||8:00 p.m.|
|Washington||6.5||Colorado -134||9:30 p.m.|
|St. Louis||5.5||Vegas -146||10:00 p.m.|
|Calgary* -110||5.5||Anaheim||10:00 p.m.|
BOLD* Back to back / ^ three in four nights / ¥ three in six nights
NHL DFS Picks: Centers
Nathan MacKinnon (COL vs. WSH) – DraftKings, $8,300; FanDuel, $8,800
This game should have the highest pace of the night. The Avalanche’s offense revolves around MacKinnon, and there will be no shortage of chances for him tonight. MacKinnon has 78 points in 55 games and remains on pace to eclipse 100 points on the season. Over the last 10 games, MacKinnon has averaged over four shots on goal to go along with 12 points. Matchup-wise, I don’t think there will be a hard match, which means MacKinnon will get to play against the depth lines because of last change. The Capitals are giving up the fourth-most high-danger chances per 60 in the league.
Tyler Seguin (DAL at TOR) – DraftKings, $6,500; FanDuel, $7,400
Seguin has been completely snake bit. He’s gone 17 games without lighting the lamp, which is pretty amazing considering he is still shooting the puck over four times per game. Seguin has a 10.7% career shooting percentage and he’s is only shooting 5.4% this year. It’s impossible for that number not to regress to the mean, especially if he is still putting pucks on net. I think tonight is the night that he lights the lamp. This game should have a good amount of pace to it and the Leafs can give up plenty of chances.
Toronto is in the bottom 10 in shots against per game, and they are also bottom-10 in high-danger chances against per 60. The Leafs have struggled killing penalties this year as well. In tournaments, Seguin is a nice contrarian option with a depressed salary.
Mikael Backlund (CGY at ANH) – DraftKings, $3,500; FanDuel, $4,900
The Flames are playing on the hind end of a back-to-back and could go somewhat overlooked tonight. Backlund has been playing good hockey and makes for a good value play tonight at $3,500. After lighting the lamp last night, Backlund is on a four-game point streak, and it’s a good possibility that it continues tonight. Anaheim has the fifth-worst expected goals against in the league at five-on-five, and they are bottom-10 in Corsi, shots allowed, scoring chances against and high-danger chances. Backlund should also get the better matchups, as Anaheim will try to shut down the Johnny Gaudreau line.
NHL DFS Picks: Wingers
Alexander Ovechkin (WSH at COL) – DraftKings, $8,500; FanDuel, $9,200
Ovechkin is still just two goals away from eclipsing 700 goals for his career, which will make him the eighth person to do it. Every night Ovechkin steps onto the ice, he’s pretty much a lock for the shot bonus and he’s got hat trick upside. Tonight’s game should have a ton of pace and there should be goals. Last time these teams met, Colorado won 6-3. Ovechkin still got his money’s worth by lighting the lamp with six shots on goal for a 25.5-point night on DraftKings.
Nikita Kucherov (TB vs. EDM) – DraftKings, $8,200; FanDuel, $8,200
EDIT: Kucherov was not at morning skate.
Leon Draisaitl (EDM at TB) – DraftKings, $7,700; FanDuel, $8,600
If the Lightning are missing Steven Stamkos, Kucherov and Anthony Cirelli, they could be in trouble tonight. Draisaitl has stepped up in a big way since Connor McDavid went down. He lit the Blackhawks up for a goal and three assists last game. Granted, it was the Blackhawks, but if Tampa Bay is going to be down those three, it hurts them a ton. Draisaitl is averaging 23 minutes of ice time and almost four shots on goal. He has a ton of talent, and his 89-point season hasn’t been a fluke.
Jakub Voracek (PHI at FLA) – DraftKings, $4,700; FanDuel, $6,300
This write up for Voracek is more for the line stack than it is about Voracek as a one-off. The Flyers top line is creating 34 shots, 30 scoring chances, over 12 high-danger chances and 2.41 expected goals per 60. They should match up with the Aleksander Barkov line, who haven’t been the shutdown line we are used to seeing. Over the last 10 games, the Panthers have been in the bottom 10 in Corsi, shots against, high-danger chances and expected goals against. Matchup-wise, the Barkov line has allowed 31 shots, 12 high-danger chances and 2.71 expected goals per 60. The Flyers top line makes for a nice contrarian option tonight for NHL DFS.
Kevin Fiala (MIN vs. NYR) – DraftKings, $4,500; FanDuel, $5,300
Fiala has been a man on a mission lately. He’s been dangling teams into submission with four multi-point games out of his last five. Fiala has tallied 10 points in the last five games, and he has been averaging over five shots per game in that time. The Rangers have the worst expected goals against in the league, while sporting the second-worst team Corsi. They are also allowing the second-most shots against per game and their penalty kill is in the bottom 10 for the year. Digging deeper, the Rangers penalty kill is worse than advertised. They are allowing the second-most shots against in the penalty kill and they have the second-worst expected goals against while killing penalties. Fiala doesn’t play in the top unit, but he will definitely get some time on the extra man advantage.
NHL DFS Picks: Defensemen
John Carlson (WSH at COL) – DraftKings, $7,500; FanDuel, $7,100
Paying up for defensemen tonight, there are a couple options. Carlson and Roman Josi remain elite on the blue line. Josi’s floor is massive, averaging almost 27 minutes of ice time with almost six shots/blocks per game. Carlson also logs massive minutes for the Caps, and he’s been a point machine with 12 points over the last 10 games. The Capitals game should have a ton of pace with plenty of shot volume, giving Carlson the best path to success in my opinion.
Matt Dumba (MIN vs. NYR) – DraftKings, $4,600; FanDuel, $3,800
It’s been a while since Dumba has made an appearance in the Power Plays article, but the matchup is too good to pass up. Dumba is averaging almost 22 minutes of ice time to go along with four shots/blocks per game. The most intriguing aspect of playing Dumba tonight is that he is the trigger man on the second power play unit. Stacking him up with the likes of Fiala gets my attention tonight. The Rangers have allowed the second-most shots against per game and their penalty kill is in the bottom 10. Give me an offensive defenseman against the Rangers any day.
Justin Holl (TOR vs. DAL) – DraftKings, $2,700; FanDuel, $3,600
We need some value from this slate to jam in our studs and Holl makes for a decent dart. He’s playing in the top defensive pairing with Jake Muzzin and he gets you exposure to the Leafs elite forwards. Over the last 10 games, Holl has averaged over 21 minutes of ice time to go along with four shots/blocks per game. His offensive upside is pretty capped, but at $2,700 on DraftKings, he doesn’t have to do a ton to pay that tag off for NHL DFS.
NHL DFS PICKS: STACKS
COL1: Rantanen – MacKinnon – Burakovsky
WSH1: Ovechkin – Backstrom – Wilson
MIN1: Parise – Staal – Fiala
Since dealing Jason Zucker to the Penguins, Bruce Boudreau rearranged the Wild Lines, and they have played great together. In the 70 minute sample, this trio has a 53 Corsi for percentage (CF%), while creating 39 shots and just under 11 high-danger chances per 60. They should match up with the Artemi Panarin line which has been pretty good defensively, but the power play correlation overcomes the matchup for me. The Rangers penalty kill is pretty atrocious. They have the 21st-ranked penalty kill at 78.6%, but they are also allowing the second-most shots against per 60 and they have the second-worst expected goals against per 60 on the penalty kill.
CBJ1: Foligno – Dubois – Bjorkstrand
Columbus was dealt a heavy blow when Seth Jones and Cam Atkinson both went down to injury. The Blue Jackets will need to step their games up to another level, and that starts with the top line. The trio has a 54 CF%, while creating 34 shots and 12 high-danger chances per 60. As I mentioned with the Wild matchup, the Jackets top line fully correlates on the extra man advantage and the Sabres have been pretty bad. Buffalo has the 28th-ranked penalty kill and they are right next to the Rangers in the advanced metrics department. If your looking for secondary or mid-level complement stacks, the Jackets and the Wild top lines look like decent plays.
CGY2: Mangiapane – Backlund – Tkachuk
The Flames second line could be a contrarian play tonight, since they played last night. They looked pretty good and I’ll be going back to the well again tonight against the Ducks. Anaheim should use the Adam Henrique line against the Gaudreau line, leaving the Ryan Getzlaf line to matchup with the Backlund line. The Getzlaf line has a 46 CF% while allowing 35 shots and 2.5 expected goals per 60. The Flames second line doesn’t have any power play correlation, but Backlund and Tkachuk both get time on the extra man advantage. Swapping out Mangiapane for a blue liner like Noah Hanifin could help with salary savings and get you more power play exposure to attack the Ducks’ weaker penalty kill.
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