NHL DFS Picks, Top Stacks & Lineup Optimizer

Saturday brings a monster 10-game slate, which will allow for vast differentiation in NHL DFS picks tonight. This Power Play article will use Awesemo’s Premium NHL Tools to help dole out the NHL DFS advice to help with building lineups on DraftKings and FanDuel tonight. Below are a few of the top NHL DFS picks that have popped in the lineup optimizer based on Awesemo’s projections for Saturday, Nov. 6.

NHL DFS Picks, Tops Stacks & Lineup Optimizer Plays

Center

Mika Zibanejad (NYR at CGY): DraftKings – $7,900 | FanDuel – $7,500

Sometimes, it’s weird to say a player is off to a tough start. Zibanejad is on pace for 30 goals and 75 points in a full season, which is really good for most players. However, he has been over a point-per-game over the last three years, averaging about 40 goals per 82 games. It is a tough start for him, though it could be a sneaky good night ahead for him.

Calgary likes to use Mikael Backlund as a shutdown matchup at home. The reality is that line hasn’t been great this year: 51.5% shot share and 52.6% expected goal share. Not bad by any means, but this isn’t two or three years ago when top lines went into Calgary and were muted by Backlund & Co. He is getting older, and Tyler Pitlick is on his fifth team in six years for a reason. The Flames are a very good team, but this is one of the weaknesses, and hopefully Zibanejad can exploit it.

This is largely an ownership play in tournaments, and a more reasonable price on FanDuel. As mentioned, overall, it’s a tough matchup, but Zibanejad should get softer in-game matchups and that, with low single-digit ownership, is what’s appealing

Nazem Kadri (COL at CBJ): DraftKings – $4,900 | FanDuel – $5,500

With all of Colorado’s injuries, they are leaning more on Kadri than in year’s gone by. He is sitting with 18:58 a night in TOI, which is a career-high, and has cracked 20 minutes in back-to-back games. The Avalanche have had trouble generating offence, particularly among the depth, and that’s hurt Kadri’s shot rate. At the same time, any forward skating as many minutes as him is a shot bonus threat, especially a guy that averaged over three shots per game last season.

The matchup tonight is what is particularly appealing. Columbus has not been the Columbus of the last few years, as its pace — defined as shot attempts for and allowed per minute — is among the highest in the league. That has put it in the bottom-10 in both shots and expected goals allowed, with great goaltending being what’s keeping this team afloat. He also gets Andre Burakovsky back as a winger as the team starts to get healthy.

Winger

Alex Ovechkin (WSH vs. PHI): DraftKings – $9,000 | FanDuel – $9,500

Having seen his ice time decline for two straight seasons, Ovechkin is averaging a 10-year high in ice time at 21:28 a night. Unsurprisingly, one of the greatest shooters and goal scorers in NHL history is doing well with this additional ice time, averaging a goal per game, and nearly five shots as well (4.8). He is shooting nearly 21% and that will come down, but even 15% shooting would mean a 60-goal season here. He is, quite simply, just throttling the league and as long as he’s playing as much as he is, he’s always in contention.

Whether Nic Dowd or Lars Eller, one of them is likely to take a lot of top-line competition from Philadelphia tonight. That frees up Ovechkin against the depth, and that is great news for this game: with the top line off the ice, the Flyers’ shot share drops from 56% to 46%. Any of the second, third or fourth lines should give Ovechkin a chance to be unleashed.

The question is how to use him tonight. At $9,000, he carries a hefty price tag and him putting him a few shots and nothing else will ruin almost any lineup. All the same, he warrants heavy consideration in any tournament, as a one-off or in a stack, and cash game players should at least keep him on the periphery. He will carry a lot of ownership, too, so keep that in mind.

Brendan Gallagher (MTL vs. VGK): DraftKings – $4,400 | FanDuel – $5,200

Gallagher started the season skating under 15 minutes a night but has been over 16 across his last two games once they’ve returned home. He is now skating on what is the top line with Nick Suzuki, and that should mean keeping his ice time at a reasonable level for his price.

It has been a tough year for Vegas, as they continue to endure a slew of injuries, and all their defensive numbers at 5-on-5 remain near the bottom of the league. The top line for Montreal has looked very good by both goals and shots in a small sample, and Tyler Toffoli has a history of success with Suzuki. Gallagher is just a very good player, so that the trio has figured it out makes sense.

That Vegas doesn’t take a lot of penalties doesn’t really hurt Gallagher. He has honestly been more productive at 5-on-5 since 2018 than he has at 5-on-4, on a per-minute basis. We want him and his talented line mates to skate as much as they can against a team missing no fewer than four players out of their top nine. Just beware of ownership because Gallagher’s price and historical shot rate will attract a lot of attention.

Rudolfs Balcers (SJS vs. NJD): DraftKings – $2,500 | FanDuel – $3,300

Timo Meier is still on the COVID list and William Eklund was sent back to Sweden. With Evander Kane’s suspension ongoing, this team’s top-6 winger depth has been depleted. Good news for Balcers, who has moved up to the second line in recent games and could even find himself on the top line for this one. Either way, he should get top-6 minutes, as he’s been skating over 16 minutes a night in four games since the team returned from their long road trip. That shouldn’t go down with all the injuries. This also likely pushes him onto the second PP unit as Eklund’s spot on the top unit opens up.

Balcers is not a bad player, despite his price. Last year, he was about average league-wide in terms of shot rate and shot assists (passes leading to shots). While “league average” isn’t a ringing endorsement, we don’t often get league-average players skating 16-plus minutes a night at home against a team on a back-to-back for the minimum price.

He probably won’t hit the shot bonus as that’s not his game, but any player at his price in his role is worthy of one-off consideration in tournaments. He can easily be used in a stack with his line mates as well and their prices will be reasonable. On a dollars-per-point basis, Balcers leads all wingers in our early projections.

Defensemen

Shea Theodore (VGK at MTL): DraftKings – $6,000 | FanDuel – $6,100

Another player off to a tough start is Theodore, with just four points in 10 games. The upside here is he’s averaging 2.8 shots per game and has posted multiple shots in every game since the season opener. While Vegas is struggling to create offence, Theodore remains one of the top puck-movers from the blue line, and that makes him a threat across all categories. He does have one shot and one block bonus through those 10 games. He doesn’t just need points for value.

Montreal has taken a step back from last year and are going through some injury issues of their own. Theodore makes a perfect one-off target for tonight as he can create offence for himself without teammates having huge nights.

Brandon Carlo (BOS at TOR): DraftKings – $2,500 | FanDuel – $3,500

Boston is a very good defensive team but they’re still rolling into Toronto tonight, the team that leads the league in shot rate this year. Carlo is far from an offensive standout — 23 points in his last 102 games — but he is blocking nearly two shots per game this year, on the back of his ice time climbing over 1:15 a game from last year. At a minimum price, even if all he gives us on DraftKings is a block bonus, we won’t be upset. This is a slate with a lot of top options and we need to look for spots where we can save money. A min-price defenseman that is a very real threat for the block bonus is a good place to start.

Latest NHL DFS Content

Goalie

Igor Shesterkin (NYR at CGY): DraftKings – $7,300 | FanDuel – $7,900

There are a lot of reasons to play Shesterkin tonight. First, his price at $7,300 on DK is palatable. Second, Calgary is averaging 35 shots every 60 minutes. That is enough volume, on average, to get us to a shot bonus every night. Lastly, there’s a reasonable chance he’s the best goalie in hockey, as his high-danger save percentage leads all goalies over the last three years, and it’s not even close. A potentially elite goalie seeing volume at a cheap price? That is what we like to see.

Top NHL DFS Stacks

Seattle1 – Schwartz-Wennberg-Donskoi

This line remains cheap across all sites and though their sample remains small, it is growing, and their shot share stays very good at 60%. Arizona remains bottom-10 in the league by both shot attempts and goals allowed at 5-on-5 per minute, with a very weak penalty kill. We also get perfect correlation on the power play here. Seattle should be in consideration as a filler stack tonight.

Montreal1 – Toffoli-Suzuki-Gallagher

As mentioned earlier, the line appears to be rounding into form and this matchup at home against Vegas is a good one. Both Toffoli and Gallagher are top-end even-strength goal scorers and at this price, we can’t ignore them. Stacking them allows reasonable second stacks and defensemen, and they’re coming in reasonably owned by our Top Stacks tool.

*Additional stats from Natural Stat Trick

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Author

Michael Clifford

Michael has been writing about fantasy hockey for over a decade, and has been playing Daily Fantasy for just as long. He has contributed to both the Chicago Tribune and the Boston Herald, has worked for Rogers Sportsnet in Canada and is now in his fifth season with Stokastic. He lives in Fredericton, New Brunswick, Canada, and can be reached on Twitter @SlimCliffy.