There is an eight-game slate tonight with almost too many options. We see the return of Sidney Crosby and Jeff Carter tonight for the Penguins, a much needed boost for them at the Center position. There are also a couple of egregious mispricings tonight on DraftKings which the article will address. This Power Play article will use Awesemo’s Premium NHL Tools to help dole out the NHL DFS advice to help with building lineups on DraftKings and FanDuel tonight. The Awesemo NHL Projections and ownership projections are two of the best tools to utilize when constructing stacks and making the optimal NHL DFS picks. Let’s go position by position and lock down some of the top plays and stacks for Saturday, October 30.
NHL DFS Picks, Top Stacks & Lineup Optimizer Plays
Connor McDavid (EDM at VAN): DraftKings – $9000 FanDuel – $9700
McDavid has Awesemo highest point projection on the night, and it really comes with no surprise. The Canucks are an average at best defensive team and that may be generous. Even with getting last change at home the Canucks will most likely deploy the Bo Horvat line against McDavid and that line has not been very good this season. In an eighty minute season sample the Horvat line has a 47% CF and has a 2.55 xGA while allowing 12 high danger chances against per 60. McDavid is essentially matchup proof but going against a line with these numbers McDavid is easily the best play on the night in all formats.
Sidney Crosby (NJ at PIT): DraftKings – $5500 FanDuel – $7900
While appropriately priced on FanDuel tonight, Sidney Crosby is $5500 on DraftKings tonight which is a crazy misprice. He is the 15th most expensive center on DraftKings tonight making him easily one of the best values on the board tonight according to the Awesemo NHL Projections. Crosby will be getting a matchup with the Devils who are without top line center, Jack Hughes. Crosby is returning from an injury but he will slot right back in on the top line and power play and he should see his normal minutes.
William Nylander (DET at TOR): DraftKings – $6500 FanDuel – $6900
The third highest projected winger tonight according to the projections, William Nylander will be taking on the Detroit Red Wings who are playing their second game in as many nights. The Wings are a middle of the pack team at best this season and while playing in Canada they will be without Tyler Bertuzzi due to vaccination protocols. In a fairly small sample size this year since moving up to the top line with Auston Matthews that line has an incredible 67% CF and 35 scoring chances for. They have been a bit unlucky scoring the puck but that will change and when it does you will want to have a part of the Leafs making Nylander one of the best wing plays tonight.
Andre Burakovsky (MIN at COL) DraftKings – $3900 FanDuel – $4800
Burakovsky is still on the top line for Colorado while Mikko Rantanen is out with an injury making him very cheap and very good value across the industry tonight. According to the Awesemo NHL projections of players playing on the top line and top powerplay Burakovsky comes in at the top value. He will be taking on the Minnesota Wild who have a couple of injuries and a couple of players in Covid protocols. Regardless, on a line with Nathan MacKinnon makes him an obvious value target and the Wild while banged up are a one line team. Burakovski should see upwards of 17-18 minutes tonight making him a great value option in all formats.
Darnell Nurse (EDM at VAN) DraftKings – $5900 FanDuel – $5700
At under $6000 across the industry not only does Darnell Nurse project well but it makes him a value play as well. Nurse has averaged a whopping 27 minutes a game so far this season and there is no reason to think that will change tonight. His only knock is that he does not see top powerplay time but he is a peripheral machine. He has not hit the scoresheet in the past three games, however, the matchup with the Vancouver Canucks is just what the doctor ordered. This is a mismatch offensively heavily in the favor of the Oilers and it would not be a surprise to see Nurse involved in the scoring tonight.
Value Defensemen Plays:
Bowen Byram, Filip Hronek, Calvin De Haan
Petr Mrazek (DET @ TOR) DraftKings – $6500 FanDuel – $8200
Mrazek is another one of the big misprices tonight on DraftKings where he comes in at the minimum price against a Detroit Red Wings team that is back to back on the road without top line winger Tyler Bertuzzi. Even at $8200 on FanDuel he should be in consideration in GPPs but at minimum price on DraftKings there is not a more obvious play on tonight’s slate. The Leafs are massive -310 favorites tonight so Mrazek in any format is the play. A couple of cheaper alternatives on FanDuel would be Jordan Binnington ($7600) and Jacob Markstrom ($7400).
Top NHL DFS Stacks
TOR 1: Matthews-Nylander-Bunting
Top 2 Stack Percentage: 20.5% Ownership Share: 20.3% Leverage: 0.2%
It may seem like an obvious play tonight but in the first few runs of ownership tonight the Leafs top line still is clinging to some positive leverage which is a bit surprising in a good way. The Leafs have burned many DFS players recently with their mediocre play but it is truly more of an unlucky streak than anything. The Leafs as a team are one of the top team in the league in expected goals but on the flip side has one of the lowest shooting percentages so far this season. Eventually those stats will regress to the mean and the Leafs will explode for a big night, and we are banking that it is tonight. Matthews-Nylander-Bunting have an incredible 67% CF and that should continue against the Wings top line without Tyler Bertuzzi. It would be wise to pay attention to the Awesemo Ownership Projections to see where the Leafs ownership goes during the day but at an ownership share of 20.3% on an eight game slate is not too bad. One thing to do to keep the stack a tad lower in ownership is to include Michael Bunting. A lot of people may one off Matthews or two man him with Nylander so including Bunting will ultimately lower the ownership on all three.
*Additional Data from Natural Stat Trick
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FanDuel Cheat Sheet: NHL DFS Picks Today | Mikko Rantanen 11/26/21
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