There is a nine-game slate tonight with no shortage of options. The Bruins and the Flyers are both playing on the hind end of a back-to-back, so keep an eye on the news. This Power Play article will use Awesemo’s Premium NHL Tools to help dole out the NHL DFS advice to help with building lineups on DraftKings and FanDuel tonight. The Awesemo NHL projections and ownership projections are two of the best tools to utilize when constructing stacks and making the optimal NHL DFS picks. Let’s go position by position and pinpoint some of the top plays and stacks for Thursday, Oct. 28.
NHL DFS Picks, Tops Stacks & Lineup Optimizer Plays
Center
Nathan MacKinnon (COL at STL): DraftKings – $8,600 | FanDuel – $8,900
MacKinnon has Awesemo’s highest point projection on the night for forwards, and rightly so. Ryan O’Reilly entered the COVID protocol and will not be playing tonight. That is a big hit for the Blues, but it is a great game to target both sides. St Louis has the second-worst expected goals against at five-on-five, and they are giving up the most high-danger chances in the league and allowing the third-most shots against per 60. Losing O’Reilly is only going to hurt them more defensively. A cheap secondary filler stack should get great leverage on the Avalanche top line tonight.
Brayden Point (TB vs. ARI): DraftKings – $6,200 | FanDuel – $7,600
Point has lit the lamp in three of his last four games, and his shot volume has been steady at just about three per game. With Nikita Kucherov going down, the Lightning need guys to step up. They get a great matchup tonight against the Coyotes, who have the 25th-ranked Corsi (47.78%). The Coyotes have been a middling team in limiting shots at five-on-five, but their penalty kill has been awful. They carry the league’s worst penalty kill rate, just 35.7%, and they have the league’s worst expected goals against while short-handed. Point correlates with Alex Killorn on the top power play, while Anthony Cirelli will get second power-play duties.
Tampa Bay’s top line as a stack comes in cheap, which means they could be a somewhat popular filler stack tonight, so keep an eye out for Awesemo’s top stack ownership.
Value Centers: Yanni Gourde, Trevor Zegras
Wingers
Vladimir Tarasenko (STL vs. COL): DraftKings – $5,700 | FanDuel – $7,500
Tarasenko’s price on DraftKings is simply too cheap. Although he is playing on the third line, he is a top-line talent. He has 6 points in five games, and he is averaging over five shots per game. Tarasenko is leading all forwards in individual Corsi-for per 60, at 28.88 per 60. Colorado is a good team, but they will give up plenty of chances. The pace of this game should be higher than normal for the Blues, leading to more opportunities for Tarasenko. Colorado has been a good team, but they are also 26th in shots against per 60 at even strength. Both sides of this game have some solid targets for tonight’s NHL DFS slate.
Claude Giroux (PHI at VAN): DraftKings – $7,000 | FanDuel – $6,100
Targeting teams on the back ends of back-to-backs can be a dangerous play, but in tournaments it makes for a solid contrarian approach. This is another game where both sides have some great options. Philadelphia looked good in their 5-3 victory against Edmonton last night, and they will get a chance to show their effort against the Canucks tonight. Vancouver has been a porous defensive team going back to last year, and they are continuing to have defensive breakdowns this year. At five-on-five the Canucks rank 23rd in expected goals against, 23rd in shots against and 30th in high-danger scoring chances against. Vancouver’s penalty kill has also been in the bottom third of the league. They are giving up the second-most shots against on the kill, and they sport the seventh-worst expected goals against short-handed. The Flyers top line fully correlates on the top power play, and Giroux has become the trigger man. He has been making the best of every opportunity, riding a five-game point streak into tonight, with a point in every game this season.
Timo Meier (SJ vs. MTL): DraftKings – $6,600 | FanDuel – $6,400
Meier has been a shot volume sniper and has not backed off that this year either. He is averaging 4.5 shots per game, and he has lit the lamp in three straight. Montreal has been a completely different team than last year, giving up a ton of chances. Their metrics are still good, but they are having issues meshing lines. Opening the year the Canadiens are giving up 3.57 goals per game, which is the sixth worst in the league. The Sharks top line has been good offensively, with 3.66 expected goals per 60 and 55% Corsi-for. Meier should target the shot-on-goal bonus tonight.
Defensemen
Oliver Ekman-Larsson (VAN vs. PHI): DraftKings – $5,600 | FanDuel – $4,500
Ekman-Larsson apparently has found the fountain of youth lately. He is averaging over 24 minutes of ice time, and his shot volume has been phenomenal. In eight games this year he is averaging just over four shots per game, and he is also quarterbacking the second power play. The Flyers rank 30th in Corsi and 30th in shots against at five-on-five. They are also playing the second of a back-to-back, which means there could be some fatigue, leading to penalties. Although the Flyers have been good on the penalty kill, they have been spending a good amount of time in the box. The Canucks lines are a mixed bag when it comes to power-play correlation, but Ekman-Larsson can be used as a one-off tonight.
Matt Roy (LA vs. WPG): DraftKings – $3,600 | FanDuel – $3,500
The Kings have dealt with two big blows to their blueline, with Drew Doughty and Sean Walker both sidelined. That means extra opportunities for Roy. Last game Roy logged 28 minutes and played on the top power play. In six games this year Roy is averaging over four shots/blocks per game. At $3,600, he makes for a strong value play tonight against the Jets, who have bled scoring chances and opened the season with a weaker penalty kill.
Top NHL DFS Stacks
TB 1 – Point – Killorn – Cirelli
Top 2 Stack Percentage: 7.1% | Ownership Share: 16% | Leverage: -8.90%
The Coyotes have been a turnstile defensively, and it seems the Lightning top line is going to be popular. Adding in a power-play defenseman like Victor Hedman can lower the ownership a lot with his salary and recent performance. The Coyotes have been awful on the penalty kill, with just a 35% kill rate. Tampa has been hit or miss to open the season, but the top line has played well. Point has 3 points in four games, and Killorn has 4 points in three games. Ownership for the Lightning top line is higher because of their salary as well. They allow for high-priced stacks, so remember to get different in other ways.
PHI 1: Couturier – Giroux – Konecny
Top 2 Stack Percentage: 9.9% | Ownership Share: 4.8% | Leverage: 5.1%
Paying up for the Flyers top line is a great contrarian play. They are playing on the second of a back-to-back, and their salary is just under $20,000. People tend to stay away from targeting teams on back-to-backs, and Awesemo also thinks the Flyers have strong leverage. The Flyers top line has been one of the best possession lines in hockey. They carry a 64% Corsi-for while creating over 37 shots for per 60. They also fully correlate on the top power play and are in a great spot against the 10th-worst penalty kill in the league. Vancouver has been a team to target against for a while, and this season it is no different. The Canucks rank 23rd in expected goals against per 60, 29th in scoring chances against and 30th in high-danger chances against. Going to the Flyers on the back end of a back-to-back could pay dividends tonight.
*Additional Data from Natural Stat Trick
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