NHL DFS Picks & Stacks for DraftKings & FanDuel Lineups Tonight | Minnesota Wild & Nathan MacKinnon 10/26/21

It is a reasonable seven-game slate tonight from which to make NHL DFS picks, so let’s not waste any time getting to them. The Awesemo NHL DFS projections and fantasy projections are two of the best tools in the industry and will be the guide for picking fantasy hockey plays today.

NHL DFS Picks, Tops Stacks & Lineup Optimizer Plays

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Nathan MacKinnon (COL vs. VGK): DraftKings – $8,100 | FanDuel – $8,900

One of the dirty secrets in the NHL for quite a while now is that the Golden Knights are a bad defensive team. It might seem surreal given they have been great defensively most of their existence, but they are bottom five in expected goals against at five-on-five over the last 35 games spanning back to last season. Their actual goals against rank in the middle of the league, largely thanks to Marc-André Fleury’s elite seasons, but it is on par with Ottawa. Take away “Vegas” and replace it with replace with “Ottawa,” and see how much more appealing this matchup is.

MacKinnon has had some COVID problems early in the season, but his line had been dynamite since his return, with three goals in 30 minutes of ice time. They are handling the expected goal share and look as they always have. Without a slew of high-end options, MacKinnon will carry a lot of ownership, but he is worth it tonight.

Mikael Granlund (NSH vs. SJ): DraftKings – $4,500 | FanDuel – $4,400

There are three big reasons to use Granlund tonight. One is he is the only Nashville forward getting over 20 minutes of ice time. The second reason is his top power-play role. He is on the top unit with the top line and Roman Josi, making him the only forward not on the top line to earn a meaningful power-play role. The top line should garner much more ownership than him, though.

The other reason is the Sharks themselves. While off to a great start, it is largely a shooting bender. The team’s second, third, and fourth lines are all below a 40% expected goal share, and that is abysmal for any five-game stretch. Granlund should see the depth tonight, and with his price and ice time, is a target in most any format. The concern for cash games is he has a low floor since he is not a shooter, even with all his ice time. For those one-offing him, maybe sticking to tournaments is a better idea.

Winger

Kevin Fiala (MIN vs. VAN): DraftKings – $6,400 | FanDuel – $6,300

When a player is not playing with the stars, ice time is generally a concern. However, like Granlund above, Fiala is one of four Minnesota forwards earning big minutes (over 18 a night). Fiala does this because he is on the top power-play unit, and he gets moved around for extra shifts from time to time. It is why he is a third-liner but plays first-line minutes. In fact, his 19:21 per game is by far a career high (he was under 17 minutes a game last year).

With Fiala’s shot volume and ice time, he is a shot-bonus threat on DraftKings every night. What is better is Fiala has been missing the net at an unusual rate, so his actual shots on goal should only climb from here on out. He is truly one of the more gifted volume shooters in the NHL. Fiala makes the perfect one-off tonight because he is not on the top line, which means he will carry lower ownership than Kirill Kaprizov, etc. He also should get depth matchups from a team that has been fringe bottom 10 defensively after being abysmal defensively last year.

Brock Boeser (VAN vs. MIN): DraftKings – $5,200 | FanDuel – $6,800

On the other side of the Minnesota game is a player who sees a wild pricing discrepancy between the two major sites. On DraftKings Boeser is the 25th-most expensive winger. On FanDuel that jumps up to tie for 12th, and there are a handful of injured players ahead of him, so it is more like top 10. On one site he is a top-10 winger, the other he is top 20. That is where the pricing discrepancy matters.

Boeser should be lining up with J.T. Miller and Elias Pettersson. That line has been great over the last two years, posting north of four goals per 60 minutes at five-one-five and a 53% expected goal share.

The reason to see Boeser here is not only the price discrepancy, but the shift in role. He should be on second power play now, and that probably pushes some ownership off him. It is a tough matchup, but he very reasonably priced on DraftKings for this matchup. For those reasons, Boeser probably is not best suited for a cash game. It is a tough matchup with Minnesota in town, and Boeser’s second power play role really hurts his overall value. But where he is priced down so much on DraftKings, he has to be considered.

Jaden Schwartz (SEA vs. MTL): DraftKings – $3,100 | FanDuel – $4,400

While priced down more on DraftKings, Schwartz is reasonable on both sites. He averaged 24 goals per 82 games from 2013 to 2020 and then had a bad year last year. Remember that St. Louis, his old team, was ravaged by injuries last year, himself included.

Schwartz has just 1 point in six games this year. There is still a lot of upshot, though, as he is averaging nearly 20 minutes a night, is in the top six and will skate on the top power-play unit. His team has gone through a tough stretch, but keep in mind Seattle opened the season with five road games in eight days across three time zones. That is a brutal schedule to open a season.

Schwartz is not a shooter, and that makes him precarious even at his price. All the same, it is hard to go wrong with a 20-minute forward for $3,100 on DraftKings, regardless of format.

Defensemen

Jared Spurgeon (MIN vs. VAN): DraftKings – $5,100 | FanDuel – $4,900

Spurgeon can bring value in three areas: Goal scoring, power-play production and shot blocks. The reasons for liking Fiala are the same for liking Spurgeon. Just beware of that lack of shooting, as it can make him tough to one-off in most formats, even though his price is much more reasonable than Matt Dumba’s on DraftKings.

Sam Girard (COL vs. VGK): DraftKings – $3,800 | FanDuel – $4,600

Beware of injuries here. Girard has a great price, but it appears he is a game-time decision. Jacob MacDonald was called up from the AHL as a security blanket in case. If Girard is out, that should mean a lot more minutes for Bowen Byram, including some second power-play time. Keep an eye on news as it comes out.

Goalie

Thatcher Demko (MIN vs. VAN): DraftKings – $7,700 | FanDuel – $7,300

On the very young season, Minnesota is a top-five team by five-one-five shot rate, while the Canucks are mid-pack by shots allowed. That is a perfect recipe for a good goalie like Demko, and Awesemo projects him for the most saves.

NHL DFS Top Stacks

MIN1

With the pricing reasonable and the matchup great, a perfectly correlated top line is always on the top of the list. They do not have to worry about any in-game matchups, and this saves $3,000 on the Colorado top stack, not including defensemen.

SEA1 (Schwartz – Gourde – Jarnkrok)

With Seattle at home, they should get lots of ice time, as outlined above for Schwartz. Their price is so cheap that it mixes in easily with teams like Minnesota or Colorado, which should make them one of the higher-owned filler stacks on the night. Mixing in a defenseman or leaving off a forward is probably a good idea to avoid being duped.

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Michael has been writing about fantasy hockey for over a decade, and has been playing Daily Fantasy for just as long. He has contributed to both the Chicago Tribune and the Boston Herald, has worked for Rogers Sportsnet in Canada and is now in his fifth season with Stokastic. He lives in Fredericton, New Brunswick, Canada, and can be reached on Twitter @SlimCliffy.

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