NHL DFS Picks & Fantasy Hockey Lineup Optimizer

COVID protocol has been making a strong onset through the NHL in the past week or so. Keeping an eye on what’s new is imperative to succeeding at NHL DFS. Following these Twitter beat writer lists are a huge advantage for getting last-minute news and scratches. This Power Play article will use Awesemo’s Premium NHL Tools to help dole out the NHL DFS advice to help with building lineups on DraftKings and FanDuel tonight. The Awesemo NHL projections and ownership projections are two of the best tools to utilize when constructing stacks and making the optimal NHL DFS picks. Let us go position by position and pinpoint some of the top plays and stacks for Tuesday, Jan. 25.

NHL DFS Picks, Top Stacks & Lineup Optimizer Plays

Center

Leon Draisaitl (EDM at VAN): DraftKings – $7,800 FanDuel – $10,200

Despite the team’s struggles, Leon Draisaitl has been able to maintain good production with 13 points in his last 10 games. His shot rate has come down in that stretch which is one reason why he has seen a price drop; he has gone from over 3.4 shots per game to about 2.6. That is significant, but he is still one of the top producers in hockey and he is priced down on DraftKings. That is worth noting, especially where we have his value similar to Connor McDavid‘s at a cheaper price.

It is also worth noting all the injuries that Vancouver is enduring. Both Bo Horvat and J.T. Miller are out of the lineup, and a non-playoff team missing their top two centers is a very big deal. It should make things a bit easier for Edmonton tonight. What makes Draisaitl valuable beyond just better 5-on-5 matchups is Vancouver’s abysmal penalty kill, ranking in the bottom-10 (or bottom-5) in most categories since Christmas.

Ownership could be an issue on DraftKings because of his price but less so on FanDuel. With the power-play matchup being part of the appeal here, it allows more flexibility with our stacks and takes away any minor concerns about duplications. Draisaitl is fine in tournaments as part of a stack at even strength or the power play.

Tage Thompson (BUF at OTT): DraftKings – $5,900 FanDuel – $5,800

Sometimes, it’s worth pointing out some pricing differences. Scoring systems differ but as long as players have similar relative values, they are generally fine plays on any site. This is a case where Tage Thompson and his top-line opposition tonight in Josh Norris have similar prices on DraftKings but wildly different prices on FanDuel. In fact, Thompson is cheaper on the latter, and it is a reason why he is found here.

Both top lines have a lot of upside here tonight but the Buffalo top line looks to be coming in with less ownership for us. Buffalo’s top line, centered by Thompson, is carrying 52% of the shot attempts and scoring chances when they play. And he is a primary shooter, too, averaging over 3.1 shots per game on the season. That combination going up against a fellow basement-dwelling team is good for him tonight.

There is also the question of Ottawa’s discipline. They have the seventh-highest penalty rate which could give Buffalo a good opportunity with the man advantage tonight. Regardless, Thompson is in play for us in tournaments. Because he is a center with a high shot rate, he can be used by himself but is viable in a line stack as well.

Winger

Kyle Connor (WPG vs. FLA): DraftKings – $7,900 FanDuel – $9,500

There is a playoff push that has started for Winnipeg. They are three points out with a lot of games to make up, which has meant more ice time for their superstars of late. One of the biggest beneficiaries is Kyle Connor, as he is playing over 23 minutes a night going back six weeks. He is averaging 4.6 shots per game in that span as a result of that ice time jump, though his shot rate was elite long before that. All this ice time is great news for a player that is home to a team that plays at a very high pace every night. There are good reasons why he leads all winger projections tonight.

Connor has been skating on the second line with rookie Cole Perfetti and having to play with a rookie can often be negative. It does not appear to be the case here, as this line is controlling 67% of the scoring chances and 68% of the scoring chances in their time together this year. It has only been a half-dozen games or so, but they have been great.

With Connor’s shot rate, he is fine to use by himself in all formats. He can be used with line mates as Pierre-Luc Dubois’ price has come down a bit of late.

Yegor Sharangovich (NJD vs. DAL): DraftKings – $4,200 FanDuel – $4,300

The Dallas Stars are playing a back-to-back on the road and that gives the New Jersey Devils an advantage out of the gate. This also makes five games in eight nights for the Stars, with the most recent four being on the road. It could be a tired Stars team skating in to face the Devils this evening.

Yegor Sharangovich and his linemates will not be matched up against Dallas’s top line here and that is important. Dallas has one of the more effective top lines in the league but the depth is much worse defensively. That could provide another advantage here on top of the rest factor.

It is important that Sharangovich is skating with Jack Hughes and Jesper Bratt here. That trio is controlling over 60% of the shots and scoring chances when they are on the ice. We will see some pullback as the sample grows, but Hughes and Bratt have generally been great together, so this chemistry makes sense.

Sharangovich can be used by himself but he is starting to get a bit expensive now on DraftKings, and for his price, stacking him with his linemates is a better idea. For that reason, he is best used in tournaments. He is much more palatable as a one-off on FanDuel.

Marcus Johansson (SEA vs. NSH): DraftKings – $3,100 FanDuel – $3,900

While there could be defensive issues with Marcus Johansson and the new top line in Seattle, the offensive generation has been there: 58 shot attempts and 34 scoring chances per 60 minutes at 5-on-5 in nearly 70 minutes together, which are just fine.

The important note here is that Nashville’s top-6 has struggled of late, and that could mean good matchups for Seattle’s top-6. Since Christmas, the Predators have played 13 games and not a single top-6 forward is at 54% shot share or better with most floating right around 50%. That is not good for any top-6, let alone a team that has playoff aspirations. All this is to say, this might not be as tough a matchup for the Kraken as it may have been 5-6 weeks ago.

Using Johansson specifically here would be a price play. It would be for fantasy players looking for a top-line option skating 16-plus minutes a night but is priced relatively cheap. By that same token, no one on his line is priced very high so stacking any two as a duo or all three as a trio in tournaments is just fine as well.

Latest NHL DFS Content

Defensemen

Evan Bouchard (EDM at VAN): DraftKings – $4,500 FanDuel – $5,600

There aren’t a lot of situations where a player can go from barely playable to extremely valuable with one change of position, but defense for Edmonton is one of those places. Evan Bouchard has jumped to the top power-play unit for Edmonton, where he had been skating third pairing with no meaningful minutes before. He scored two PP goals in his first game with the new role.

While we would like to say that we could not foresee the power play turning around immediately, the fact is Bouchard is the team’s best puck mover, and according to the advanced stats site Evolving Hockey’s expected goals-for impact, it’s nowhere close. At his price, at home with this PP unit, Bouchard is among the best values on the blue line tonight and is a target in all formats.

Brandon Montour (FLA at WPG): DraftKings – $3,900 FanDuel – $4,300

The idea here is to take advantage of some of the cheaper Florida Panthers defensemen while Gustav Forsling is still injured. As mentioned earlier, the Panthers like to push the pace, which can mean good things for Brandon Montour’s peripherals; he has six shots and seven shots in three games since Forsling’s injury, skating well over 22 minutes a night (he was under 17:30 on the season). As long as Forsling remains out of the lineup, Montour should keep seeing a lot more ice time, and it makes him a peripheral threat at both ends. He has production upside due to the team he is skating on as it is.

Goalie

Connor Hellebuyck (WPG vs. FLA): DraftKings – $7,300 FanDuel – $7,300

It is always a precarious situation to use a goalie against a top offensive team in hockey. Florida can roll in here and have Connor Hellebuyck pulled from the game in 10 minutes, which is the balance against the upside here. Florida leads the league in 5-on-5 shot rate over the last month. If they can get 35-40 shots, the upside for one of the best goalies in hockey is obvious. The problem is if they score five goals on those 35-40 shots, but again, that is the balance against a cheap goalie at home. He is absolutely a tournament target for us tonight.

Top NHL DFS Stacks

PIT1: Crosby-Guentzel-Rust

While Pittsburgh’s opponent tonight, Arizona, has gotten a bit better with their discipline, their penalty kill has remained awful this year. Since Christmas, the Coyotes are near the bottom in every penalty kill metric, only being saved by good goaltending. That cannot save them every night, and Pittsburgh’s top line is generating north of 40 scoring chances per 60 minutes at 5-on-5 since Christmas. On the power play, north of 85 scoring chances per 60 minutes. These are all stellar offensive numbers and bring a popular Penguins roster into play for us.

NYI1: Barzal-Lee-Czarnik

Part of the reason here is simply pricing. Both Anders Lee and Mathew Barzal are priced down on both sites from their natural talent level, and that speaks to the team’s struggles this year. They are cheap and are at home against a poor defensive Flyers team on a road back-to-back. If there were ever a night to play the Islanders’ top line, this is one of those nights. Just beware of high ownership because they do fit in easily with other first lines due to their pricing.

*Additional information from Natural Stat Trick

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Author

Michael Clifford

Michael has been writing about fantasy hockey for over a decade, and has been playing Daily Fantasy for just as long. He has contributed to both the Chicago Tribune and the Boston Herald, has worked for Rogers Sportsnet in Canada and is now in his fifth season with Stokastic. He lives in Fredericton, New Brunswick, Canada, and can be reached on Twitter @SlimCliffy.