We have a loaded 12-game slate tonight, so let’s not waste time getting to some key NHL DFS picks. This Power Play article will use Awesemo’s Premium NHL Tools to help dole out the NHL DFS advice to help with building lineups on DraftKings and FanDuel tonight. The Awesemo NHL projections and ownership projections are two of the best tools to utilize when constructing stacks and making the optimal NHL DFS picks. Let’s go position by position and pinpoint some of the top plays and stacks for Saturday, Nov 13.
NHL DFS Picks, Tops Stacks & Lineup Optimizer Plays
Center
Sam Bennett (FLA at TBL): DraftKings – $4,600 | FanDuel – $6,300
We were worried about some pullback from Sam Bennett’s strong finish to the season last year after the trade to Florida. Though he has missed a few games due to injury this year, he has five goals and eight points in 10 games and is averaging nearly 3.5 shots per game. The funny thing is he has just one DraftKings shot bonus this year, but has multiple shots in every contest. Bennett has been incredibly consistent.
While his line isn’t as elite offensively as it was last season, it is still controlling 57% of the shot attempts and its actual goal rate is nearly five per 60 minutes. Conversely, they’ll see a lot of the Steven Stamkos–Mathieu Joseph matchup from the Tampa side, and they’re controlling just 45% of their shot attempts. Florida’s second line should get its chances tonight against a line that isn’t territorially dominant, and Bennett is a volume shooter. That is a good mix, even if its facing on of the top goalies in hockey.
The ownership is well in check here and this line is very productive, with Bennett still earning those valuable top power-play minutes. He is reasonably priced on DraftKings, which makes him a target for tournaments whether as a one-off or in a stack. On FanDuel, it’s a more open question. Regardless, we have him at low single-digit ownership, and that is very appealing to us.
Boone Jenner (CBJ vs. NYR): DraftKings – $4,500 | FanDuel – $4,300 (but listed as a winger for some reason)
It is a weird career arc for Boone Jenner. He scored 16 goals as a rookie playing third-line minutes, and a couple seasons later had a 30-goal campaign. He looked to be a two-way center on the verge of stardom, but that turned one-way, never cracking 40 points since 2015-16. That has changed a bit this year, with 6 goals and 7 points in 10 games. It should be noted he’s not a Cy Young-type of player, which means scoring goals but not assisting. Since his 30-goal season, he has 13 more assists than goals. It is just unfortunate for him that he hasn’t gotten in on any goals yet. Clearly, that will turn around moving forward.
The ice time and matchup is what is appealing here. He has skated roughly 20:30 a game on average this year and hasn’t skated less than 17:30 on any occasion. While his shot rate per minute isn’t anything special, the amount of ice time means he’s a shot bonus threat on DraftKings. He has one already this year, and at least three shots in over half his games. These are all part of the reasons why he’s third in raw projections among centers priced $5,000 or under on DraftKings tonight.
As for the matchup, the Rangers’ top line has been a mess all season. With the combination of Mika Zibanejad and Chris Kreider on the ice, New York is controlling just 45.5% of the shot attempts and 46.9% of the goals. This is a good Columbus line, and Jenner is getting a lot of ice time. As with Bennett, he is worthy of consideration in all tournament formats.
Winger
Nikolaj Ehlers (WPG vs. LAK): DraftKings – $5,800 | FanDuel – $6,700
Fun fact: Nikolaj Ehlers is second in the league in shot rate, trailing only Timo Meier, who has played five fewer games. He has hit the DraftKings shot bonus in four contests with the latest coming just earlier this week. The concern with Ehlers has always been his ice time, as the coaching staff has skated him as a second liner for years. Even with the team getting healthy, he’s still regularly skating in the 18- to 19-minute range, which is unheard of for him in his career. All this ice time and all those shots are a fantasy player’s dream.
What hasn’t happened yet are the points; just 3 goals and 6 assists in 13 games. He is just getting flat unlucky. Individual Points Percentage, or IPP, is the rate at which a player garners a point when their team scores. Since Ehlers’ rookie year, he has five straight seasons between 70-90%. This season, it sits at 56%. He is also shooting just 6.25%, having never shot lower than 12% in those five seasons. He is still producing a lot of fantasy points and he’s getting wildly unlucky. Imagine if he doesn’t.
Los Angeles is in town and Ehlers should see a fair bit of the second line, a high-paced line at both ends now that Andreas Athanasiou is there. That favors Ehlers again, and makes him a target in almost any format, cash or tournament. Stacking with someone like Andrew Copp is fine as well. Just watch for lines, as he did skate a few shifts with Mark Scheifele in their last game.
According to our NHL DFS lineup optimizer, Ehlers is showing up often as one of the best plays tonight. Check out all of our free daily fantasy hockey picks with our NHL DraftKings cheat sheet and FanDuel NHL cheat sheet.
Lucas Raymond (DET vs. MTL): DraftKings – $5,100 | FanDuel – $5,600
With Detroit’s top line healthy and assembled, it’s a line to watch tonight. On the year, they’re generating 4.3 expected goals per 60 minutes, which is a huge total. We should be wary of that just a month into the season but at the same time, Tyler Bertuzzi and Dylan Larkin have a long history of success together. Lucas Raymond, meanwhile, is averaging 2.7 shots per game as a rookie. He is highly touted, so this isn’t much of a surprise. He is earning the trust of the coaching staff, too, as he’s added a minute of TOI per night to his repertoire over his last five games.
This is a great special teams matchup for Detroit tonight. Montreal is giving up the sixth-most power plays in the league while Detroit is eighth in drawing power plays. The Montreal penalty kill is bottom-10 in the league by most measures while Raymond is a fixture of the top power-play unit. There could be loads of power-play time on tap for Raymond this evening. That is what makes him a potential target for tournaments as a one-off. He has hat-trick upside because of this power-play matchup. Keep the Red Wings in mind tonight.
Andre Burakovsky (COL vs. SJS): DraftKings – $4,200 | FanDuel – $4,700
Colorado’s blue line is near full health but its top-4 is intact and that is important for the entire lineup. By Evolving Hockey’s expected goals above replacement, a measure of total impact from points to penalties to defense, this team has three defensemen in the top-30 per 60 minutes over the last three seasons. The fourth in that top-4 is Bowen Byram, who looks like a top-pair defenseman in his own right. They are finally all healthy together for the first time, and that means the driving force behind the team’s offence is back.
That is great news for Andre Burakovsky and his line mates. With Nazem Kadri and Valeri Nichushkin, the line has controlled nearly 60% of shot attempts in its 126 minutes together over the years, and generating over 74 shot attempts per 60 minutes, a massive number. This can be a dominant line and finally has the backup it needs on the blue line. San Jose may be getting reinforcements back from the COVID list, but those guys haven’t played in a couple weeks. It is still advantage Colorado here.
He can be used as a one-off here, seeing as he’s the only player on his line getting top PP minutes, and his value is among the top-10 for wingers his price and above on DK. He is also fine to use in a stack for tournaments, given the matchup and their prices.
Defensemen
Roman Josi (NSH vs. ARI): DraftKings – $8,300 | FanDuel – $6,900
Speaking of special teams matchups, Arizona is in town tonight. On the season, Arizona isn’t taking a lot of penalties, coming in the middle of the league. The problem is its penalty kill is absolutely dreadful, allowing the most shot attempts and fourth-most shots per 60 minutes on the year. Unsurprisingly, they’re allowing nearly the most goals per 60 minutes as well, ceding last place to Vancouver. Roman Josi should have a lot of power-play time against a weak penalty kill, and just a lot of ice time against the worst team in hockey generally.
There isn’t much to parse here. Despite the hefty price tag on DraftKings, Josi leads our projections among defensemen in raw points, and is one of the best dollar-per-point values on FanDuel. The question is how to use him because there will be a lot of ownership here and elsewhere on Nashville. He can be used as a one-off, of course, but just beware of hundreds of fellow competitors having the same players.
Justin Faulk (STL at CAR): DraftKings – $4,800 | FanDuel – $4,300
Final note about special teams here: Carolina is giving up, by far, the most power plays in the league to its opponent (4.6 per game). With Torey Krug out of the lineup, Justin Faulk is running the top power-play unit, and that means a lot of power-play time for him tonight. He has just been earning more ice time in general, skating at least 25 minutes in three straight, racking up 16 shots and 7 blocks in that span. Carolina is a high shot-volume team, so he’ll be threatening for the DraftKings block bonus tonight. Add in the special team potential, and Faulk is high on the list of one-off defensemen to use for tonight, especially where he’s carrying almost no ownership.
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Goalie
Igor Shesterkin (NYR at CBJ): DraftKings – $7,900 | FanDuel – $8,100
Sometimes, it’s best not to overthink things in net. Igor Shesterkin leads all NHL goalies in high-danger save percentage, a good metric to evaluate goalie talent, over the last three years. And it’s not particularly close. The Rangers, meanwhile, are allowing more than 33 shots per 60 minutes on the year, and that puts the save bonus in range for us on DraftKings. Columbus did play last night so maybe they’re tired, but it is better to go with the rested elite goalie, even if the volume doesn’t get there.
Top NHL DFS Stacks
Winnipeg 2 – Copp-Ehlers-Pionk
As mentioned in the section on Ehlers, the line of Ehlers-Copp-Harkins is going to match the second line for Los Angeles, and that line is high-event. That giving that line a plethora of opportunities should lead to good things, if we can get some luck on our side. Leaving Jansen Harkins off and just going for a Copp-Ehlers two-man stack given their power-play correlation is fine as well. In 50 minutes without Paul Stastny, Copp-Ehlers are still generating over 72 shot attempts per 60 minutes. They are fine as a duo. As mentioned in the Ehlers section, just beware of line combinations. Our Discord will update the lines throughout the day.
Vegas 1 – Smith-Roy-Marchessault
Vancouver coming in town tonight means a top-line matchup for Vegas1, and the top line for Vancouver has struggled mightily this year: nearly 80 minutes together and 42% expected goal share, resulting in just a 50% goal share. That is nowhere near good enough for this line, and they are better, but as long as they’re struggling, we should take advantage. While this Vegas line has defensive struggles of their own, they are rolling offensively, at 2.7 expected goals and 73 shot attempts per 60 minutes. They will draw double-digit ownership, but it’s a good home matchup.
*Additional stats from Natural Stat Trick
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