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NHL DFS Picks Today & Stacks for DraftKings & FanDuel Lineups | Tampa Bay Lightning & Roman Josi 3/19/22

Michael Clifford

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NHL DFS picks today for DraftKings and FanDuel fantasy hockey lineups Wednesday 3/2/22

This is a special weekend in the NHL with the NHL trade deadline coming in hot on Monday. That means there will be regular players sitting, as teams protect their health in anticipation of trades. Expect many players to be sat or inactive, which can allow us to mix it up with our NHL DFS picks today seeing as there are only five games on this fantasy hockey slate. Subscribers should check in on our Discord for updates later in the day. To help out non-subscribers, we have our NHL DFS Top Stacks tool free on the site for everyone to check for this slate on Saturday March 19, 2022.

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NHL DFS Picks Today, Top Stacks & Lineup Optimizer Plays

Center

Josh Norris (OTT at MTL): DraftKings – $5,900 | FanDuel – $6,900

Ottawa played last night and teams on a back-to-back are traditionally at a disadvantage. They will also be sitting out some players because of the impending trade deadline, which leaves them a bit thinner than usual in the lineup. That could be an issue, but Montreal is running into the same problem. They’ve already traded Ben Chiarot and have a couple other guys on the roster that could be on the move, and thus possible to sit on Saturday night. That doesn’t apply to Josh Norris, who will be in the lineup and a threat to play 20 minutes.

Montreal has seen a turnaround over the last several weeks under its new coach. Those turnarounds have largely come on offense, though. The team defense, as expressed by expected goals against at 5-on-5, is 25th in the league, and worse than Ottawa’s. That problem persists on the penalty kill, as the Canadiens are near the bottom of the league in the same defensive statistic. All that is to say that Montreal is very leaky defensively, and that helps Norris.

In tournaments, Norris is fine by himself because he is a shooter and goal scorer. His linemates should be considered for a stack, though.

Yanni Gourde (SEA vs. DET): DraftKings – $3,200 | FanDuel – $5,400

It isn’t often we see Seattle Kraken skaters in this column, and it’s because they’re a very bad offensive team. Nothing has really changed in this regard, but the opponent coming to town does matter. In the section above, we talked about how bad Montreal’s team defense has been both at 5-on-5 and on the penalty kill. Those who read this column regularly may know what’s coming next: Detroit has been worse than Montreal in that same time frame. In fact, it is allowing the most goals of any team per minute over the last six weeks. Bad team defense plus bad goaltending does not equal a happy time for the Red Wings. It is a reason why Yanni Gourde leads all our DraftKings NHL center projections for pivots priced under $4,000.

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Gourde isn’t a particularly talented offensive player, but he is skating over 18 minutes a night spanning his last 10 games, averaging two shots on goal per night. His price means he doesn’t really have to do a lot to be a successful NHL DFS pick tonight, either. His line has been close to break-even by scoring chance differential, which is a miracle for a Kraken trio. They don’t have to all be played in tournaments tonight, but Gourde is a one-off candidate for anyone needing a cheap pivot on DraftKings. Over on FanDuel, assuming he lines up as the second-line center, Pius Suter (DET – $4,400) makes some sense at his price.

Winger

Chris Kreider (NYR at TBL): DraftKings – $7,100 | FanDuel – $8,000

It has been an unbelievable season for Chris Kreider, who has already hit the 40-goal mark, having never had a 30-goal season before. The 20% shooting will help, but it has also been a huge jump in shot rate, landing 3.3 on net per contest. He had never cracked 2.6 in a season for his career until now. He gets to the net, where most goals are scored, and shoots a lot. There are reasons beyond the 20% shooting why he’s already sitting with 40 goals.

Going into Tampa Bay is a difficult matchup, there’s no doubt about that. But we only have five games on this fantasy hockey slate tonight and looking for small edges is the name of the game. The edge here is Tampa Bay’s penalty kill, which is bottom-5 by expected goals against over the last six weeks. Its actual goals against is closer to the middle of the league, which is what great goaltending will do, but it is also among the most penalized teams in the league, too. New York, and Kreider, live and die by goaltending and the power play, both of which are excellent. The steep price will keep Kreider’s ownership low, making him a one-off target for tournaments. He is also fine in some sort of power-play stack.

Tyler Bertuzzi (DET at SEA): DraftKings – $5,400 | FanDuel – $7,700

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Tyler Bertuzzi had missed the last few games for the Red Wings but is expected to return tonight against Seattle. The team badly needs him, too, as they’re not deep, and he’s second on the roster in points per minute, and first in expected goals generated. He is very good both in transition and setting up the offense, which makes him particularly valuable on this thin roster.

Going into Seattle means missing that Gourde shutdown line that we talked about earlier. That is pretty important here because all of Seattle’s defensive numbers get worse with them off the ice, meaning Bertuzzi gets easier matchups. Which line, exactly, doesn’t matter as much as just not facing the top line. It isn’t a particularly great power-play matchup, but we should note that Detroit is among the 10 most-penalized teams in the league since the All-Star Game.

Bertuzzi isn’t a volume shooter, so he’s not really a cash game option for us tonight. In tournaments, though, he’s easily the most skilled player on his line, and that makes him a one-off target. He is also just fine to use in a full-line stack given their prices and the quality of the opponent tonight.

Alex Killorn (TBL vs. NYR): DraftKings – $3,700 | FanDuel – $5,800

As always, the fear of facing the New York Rangers is facing goalie Igor Shesterkin. He has had a couple rough games in the last couple weeks, but he’s still far and away the top goalie in the league this year. Of course, Tampa Bay is also one of the top offensive teams, and on a short slate, the Lightning require our attention, even against Shesterkin.

Alex Killorn has been skating on a line with Steven Stamkos and Nikita Kucherov of late. Presumably, they’ll be used against the second and third lines from the Rangers, and avoid the best line New York has to offer. Killorn hasn’t played a lot with Kucherov, but in their limited sample of nearly 50 minutes, they are generating well above average in terms of scoring chances (they are also in the same boat defensively, so they need to work on that end of the ice). A high-octane offensive line against any team warrants attention. Killorn is clearly a third wheel, but he’s also priced as such.

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The fear of facing New York’s goalie is alleviated by Killorn’s price here. His linemates are very expensive, but he’s not, so they don’t need to do a lot for him to have value tonight. He is fine as a one-off or in line stacks.


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Defensemen

Roman Josi (NSH vs. TOR): DraftKings – $8,400

There are reasons not to play Roman Josi tonight, and those would be the matchup and his price. Toronto gets their top-line center back from suspension tonight, and rookie Erik Kallgren has stabilized things (temporarily) in net. We don’t know how good the young netminder really is, but it’s hard to be worse than the starting goalies the Leafs had been using for the last few months.

On the flipside, Josi has managed at least five shots on goal in 27% of his games this year and at least three blocks in over 30% of his contests. His peripheral floor is very high, and that brings bonuses in play for DraftKings NHL lineups. He is also an elite point producer with 72 in 59 games this year. There is a reason he’s in a tier of his own of defensemen.

Whether or not to play Josi will also likely mean whether or not to play the top forward options tonight, so NHL DFS players have choices to make. With all that said, Josi can do things no other blue-liner can and that makes him a target every night.

Erik Brannstrom (OTT at MTL): DraftKings – $2,500 | FanDuel – $3,700

In two games without Thomas Chabot in the lineup, Erik Brannstrom has played over 50 minutes combined. He played last night, skating nearly 23 minutes, and running the top power-play unit. Those are the big reasons why he leads our projections for punt defensemen tonight. As mentioned in the section on Norris, the Montreal penalty kill has been poor, even under a new coaching regime. The price here is what’s really driving us, because his peripherals have generally not been good, ranking somewhere near the middle of the league in shot rate per minute for defensemen. But at a very cheap price, he doesn’t need much to succeed, so he’s a target for us in this game.

Goalie

Thatcher Demko (VAN vs. CGY): DraftKings – $7,400 | FanDuel – $7,500

Calgary is in town and even with the Flames on a back-to-back, it presents a tough matchup for Thatcher Demko. The Flames have the fourth-highest shot rate and the eighth-highest goals rate in the league since the All-Star break. That shot rate, though, is what makes Demko appealing. A high volume of shots faced can make for a great tournament goalie, and the matchup means the Canucks goalie isn’t among the top-tier options by pricing. He is fine in any tournament format tonight.

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TB1: Killorn-Stamkos-Kucherov

As discussed in the section on Killorn, facing the top New York netminder isn’t a particularly appealing proposition. However, not only are the Rangers no better than a middle-of-the-road team defensively at 5-on-5, they are allowing the most scoring chances while short-handed over the last six weeks as well. This team is being held together by Shesterkin’s goaltending and he just needs to not be super-elite for things to fall apart quickly. Tampa Bay’s top stars warrant our consideration tonight on a short slate such as this given they lead our Top Stacks tool by top-2 stack percentage.

CGY2: Toffoli-Jarnkrok-Mangiapane

Calgary played last night and had a huge letdown, being shutout at home. A back-to-back is a tough situation, but as mentioned in the Demko section, the Flames have maintained themselves as a top offensive team over the last several weeks. As the team starts to spread out ice time, it secures this ice time for this line at roughly the 15-minute range. Not big TOI numbers, but that is reflected in their price as well. There are cheap fillers across this slate tonight, which hopefully keeps others away from this line. They don’t have a sample together, but Tyler Toffoli and Andrew Mangiapane generate 31 scoring chances (against 22 allowed) every 60 minutes in their ice time together. They should be able to have a good night against the Vancouver depth and our early ownership runs have them coming in very low-owned.

*Additional Stats from Natural Stat Trick


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The DFS hockey rankings for fantasy points and value are derived directly from Alex's own best DFS NHL projections. Find more DFS NHL news and NHL DFS picks FanDuel as well as the best NHL DFS predictions. The most accurate NHL DFS projections model was created and is maintained by Alex Baker and Jake Hari. Initial DFS hockey ownership projections for main slates will be posted daily by 4 p.m.

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