For Wednesday night, there is a six-game slate featuring some of the biggest stars in the game in Connor McDavid and Auston Matthews. This Power Play article will use Awesemo’s Premium NHL Tools to help dole out the NHL DFS advice to help with building lineups on DraftKings and FanDuel tonight. The Awesemo NHL projections and ownership projections are two of the best tools to utilize when constructing stacks and making the optimal NHL DFS picks. Let’s go position by position and pinpoint some of the top plays and stacks for Wednesday, Dec. 1.
NHL DFS Picks, Tops Stacks & Lineup Optimizer Plays
Center
Dylan Larkin (DET vs. SEA): DraftKings – $6,200 | FanDuel – $6,900
While he is skating 18:11 a game this season, that number is a bit misleading: Dylan Larkin was given a 10-minute misconduct in his first game of the season, and there was a game about two weeks ago where he was yanked off the ice half-way through because of an inconclusive COVID test that returned late. Those games of 11 and 12 minutes skew his ice time a lot, and removing those games, it is nearly 19 minutes a night. Regardless, he is over three shots per game on the year and has 19 points in 18 games. The top line with Lucas Raymond and Tyler Bertuzzi has been great and they are at home tonight.
Seattle visits, and it should be noted they are a good defensive team, ranking top-10 for the month of November by shot attempts and expected goals against. The goaltending has let them down, and that is good for Detroit. Even better is that Larkin should match against the Yanni Gourde line, which has not been that good in a small sample, breaking even by possession. With all the high-priced players across this slate, Detroit looks to carry low ownership tonight, making Larkin and his line mates a good stack in tournaments. He is also fine by himself as a one-off, differentiating again from the high-priced centers tonight.
Kevin Hayes (PHI at NYR): DraftKings – $2,900 | FanDuel – $4,100
Heading into New York tonight, the real test is facing Igor Shesterkin. He has looked every bit the heir apparent to Henrik Lundqvist as the scouts said. The matchup concern is not facing the Rangers’ depth: the third line is averaging over 130 shot attempts for and against (combined) per 60 minutes at five-on-five, a very high pace. Hayes has been priced down to next to nothing due to injuries this year and is skating with a scoring winger in Travis Konecny.
Hayes and Konecny’s numbers together are not great – 49% shot share and two goals for per 60 minutes the last three seasons – but this is all about Hayes’s price. He is $2,900 on DraftKings and he is averaged 23 goals and 200 shots per 82 games his last three seasons. The fact that Konecny plays a separate power play from Hayes makes him an even more appealing one-off in all tournaments; he can have a big night without his line mates also having big nights.
The last note here is that Scott Laughton is still listed as a center, so it makes stacking the line even more difficult. That is even more reason to use him as a one-off.
Winger
Max Pacioretty (VGK at ANA): DraftKings – $7,000 | FanDuel – $8,000
The concerns about Max Pacioretty’s health returning last week, having played just two games all year, were quelled as he racked two assists and nine shots in two contests. He is averaging over five shots a game in his four games, a brief glimpse into his shot rate of the last two years, which is over four per night. He is one of the shot-happiest players in the league, ranking behind only Alex Ovechkin since the start of the 2019 season in shot rate per minute. He is priced reasonably for the very real DraftKings upside of the shot bonus, and his line mates are fully healthy for the first stretch of games this season.
His line being healthy is a big deal. Over the last three seasons, they generate 5.3 goals per 60 minutes, and that is in a sample in excess of 700 minutes together at five-on-five. Quite frankly, that is a low-grade power play every time they step on the ice at even strength. They are truly among the elite lines, and Pacioretty is a big reason.
Anaheim is an improved team, but they are not of much matchup concern, especially playing their second game in as many nights. Pacioretty is fine by himself in any format, or part of a stack in tournaments. Just watch for ownership, as Awesemo has him as the highest-owned winger outside of Edmonton tonight.
Pacioretty was popping up all over the Awesemo NHL lineup optimizer today as well. Check out all of our free DFS picks in our DraftKings NHL cheat sheet and FanDuel NHL cheat sheet.
Brock Boeser (VAN at OTT): DraftKings – $5,000 | FanDuel – $6,100
It has been a tough year for Brock Boeser, with just four goals in 20 games. He is shooting as much as he was last year, though, when he scored 23 goals in 56 games, so the career-low shooting percentage is a big reason. He has been put on a line with J.T. Miller and Nils Hoglander, though, and they have been good together in a small 42-minute sample, with 61 shot attempts for per 60 minutes. The Canucks as a whole have been struggling but generating that many shot attempts is about as good as it can get for a trio on this roster.
Of course, recommending a struggling player from a struggling team only happens because of the matchup. They are in Ottawa, and the Senators have had a tough year themselves. Up until November 15th, they were last by shot attempts allowed and fourth worst by goals against. Then the team was shut down for several days because of a COVID outbreak. In the four games since returning, the defensive numbers remain unchanged, and the goalies are allowing even more. It is just a very bad start for an average team that is getting worse. Boeser and his line mates have a plus matchup tonight going into Ottawa, making them targets in tournaments at their 4% ownership.
Joel Farabee (PHI at NYR): DraftKings – $3,100 | FanDuel – $4,400
With Philadelphia’s lines in a bit of flux, Joel Farabee has joined the top line with Sean Couturier. This is a big deal for someone at his price, especially where he had been skating over 16 minutes his last couple games. With those two on the ice, in nearly 400 minutes together, the Flyers are scoring a little over 3.4 goals per 60 minutes, controlling 53% of shot attempts. They will face the new-look top line from the Rangers with Kaapo Kakko, but the top line has generally been poor defensively this year, and it will be hard for him to salvage that.
Farabee’s general problem this year is his shot rate has declined, so he is relying more on percentages. Luckily, he will get to skate with one of the league’s best two-way wingers tonight, so high-percentage chances against a weak five-on-five Rangers team are likely.
This is all about his spot. Skating with Couturier is a big bonus, and they are on the same power-play unit. They make a nice duo tonight, or just full-stacking the entire line is perfectly fine as well, as they are perfectly correlated. As for Farabee, Awesemo has him as one of the top 10 cheap wingers by value on DraftKings tonight.
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Defensemen
Adam Fox (NYR vs. PHI): DraftKings – $7,200 | FanDuel – $7,000
On the other side of the Flyers game are the Rangers. Philadelphia is the sixth-most penalized team in hockey, and they have an average-at-best penalty kill that is being papered over by great, and unsustainable, goaltending. Adam Fox runs New York’s top power play, and though the team struggles at five-on-five, the top power play is scoring 11 goals per 60 minutes this year, a very good mark.
Fox can kind of do it all: he has three shot bonuses and six block bonuses on DraftKings this year, a mark of his peripheral prowess. This is a good power-play matchup and with all the high-priced forwards tonight, the high-priced defensemen will likely go under-utilized. He is fine by himself, as Awesemo has him second for in raw points projections tonight among blue liners, or as part of a power-play stack.
Philip Broberg (EDM vs. PIT): DraftKings – $2,700 | FanDuel – $3,500
The simple fact of the matter is Edmonton is running out of defensemen – Oskar Klefbom was out for the year already, Darnell Nurse hit the IR last week, Duncan Keith a few days ago, and now Cody Ceci is in COVID protocols. They are missing no fewer than half their starting blue line, and up to five. All this is to say, Philip Broberg’s increasing ice time since getting called up is unlikely to decline.
He will not get top power-play minutes but will play a lot of even-strength minutes with some of the most talented players in the league. He is in consideration as a one-off in all formats or as part of an Oilers stack in tournaments.
Goalie
Anthony Stolarz (ANA vs. VGK): DraftKings – $7,200 | FanDuel – $7,100
Anaheim faced off against Los Angeles last night with John Gibson in net, so it will be Anthony Stolarz tonight for the Ducks. He is the cheapest home goalie on the slate and Vegas has typically been a high-volume shooting team in recent years, though that has gone down this year with injuries. With those Vegas players healthy, Stolarz should face a healthy volume of shots tonight, and that brings him into play in tournaments.
Top NHL DFS Stacks Today
VGK1: Stone – Stephenson – Pacioretty
As mentioned in the section on Pacioretty, this is one of the best lines in hockey and has been for a few years. The pricing tonight is because there have been injuries all year, as Pacioretty has played just four games and Mark Stone has appeared in nine. Their pricing will also make them a highly owned option tonight, but there are lots of ways to get different with a secondary stack, because all kinds of lines and defensemen can fit here. They should be near the top of anyone’s consideration list.
OTT1: Tkachuk – Norris – Batherson
The Senators have reunited their top line, which is probably a good thing because so far this year, this trio helps generate 62 shot attempts, 2.6 expected goals, and 5.4 goals per 60 minutes. That goal rate will not maintain, but those are very good offensive numbers otherwise, and a weak defensive team in Vancouver is in town tonight. That extends to Vancouver’s penalty kill, which was bottom five in all respects in November. Their ownership is a bit high but in check at 10% by Awesemo’s Top Stacks Tool.
*Additional stats from Natural Stat Trick
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