It’s a monster 13-game slate today, which means a plethora of NHL DFS picks to sift through. We’re also just a day removed from the trade deadline, which means new line combinations and injuries will slowly trickle out all day long. It will be imperative for Awesemo subscribers to keep it locked to our live blog as we add updates throughout the day.
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NHL DFS Picks: Center
Christian Dvorak (ARI vs. FLA): DraftKings – $4,400; FanDuel – $5,200
Since Taylor Hall got to Arizona and Dvorak started playing with him, the center has 10 goals in 30 games. That’s an average of 27 goals every 82 games. Now, it might not seem like a lot, but Dvorak had never scored more than 15 goals in a season before this year (he has 18 now), and that binge has him shooting just 14.1 percent, not much higher than his first three years in the league (12.1 percent). He’s just getting more ice time with an elite winger, which means more shots.
Dvorak’s line has been excellent offensively for Arizona to the tune of 3.1 expected goals and 3.4 actual goals per 60 minutes. They face a Florida team whose defensive metrics aren’t far off from Detroit’s this year. Dvorak is fine as a one-off in any format, or as part of a line stack for tournaments.
Brayden Point (T.B vs. TOR): DraftKings – $5,800; FanDuel – $7,500
On DraftKings, Point is the 16th-most expensive center on the slate. Over on FanDuel, he’s tied for the sixth-most expensive center. That pricing gap is what makes Point particularly appealing tonight over on DraftKings.
With Toronto in town, the line of Point-Stamkos-Kucherov should deploy often against the Auston Matthews line for the Leafs. That line has been great for Toronto, but they’re not very good defensively with an expected goals against rate just under 2.5 per 60 minutes. That’s about a standard deviation worse than league average. Their actual goals against sit at 3.3 per 60 minutes, which is very bad, though mostly indicative of bad goaltending. That is not to discount that there may be some defensive issues not captured by advanced metrics, we just don’t know for sure right now.
Toronto doesn’t take a lot of penalties which makes me kind of leery to spend over $7,000 for either Steven Stamkos or Nikita Kucherov. Point has been playing more lately, about 19:30 per game over his last five games, which is an added bonus here. His price, more than anything, is the reason to use him as a one-off on DraftKings for either cash games or tournaments.
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NHL DFS Picks: Winger
Paul Byron (MTL vs. VAN): DraftKings – $2,500; FanDuel – $3,300
The trade of Ilya Kovalchuk solidifies Byron’s spot on the third line, a guy who just recently returned from injury. He had put up three pretty good years in a row for Montreal — over the three previous seasons, he had as many five-on-five goals as Sebastian Aho, Chris Kreider and T.J. Oshie — before injuries hit him at times last year and then into this year. All the same, he’s a very good five-on-five performer.
There are two main reasons for using Byron tonight. First is that he’ll slide in on the third line tonight with Max Domi. The duo of Domi/Byron has been excellent for the Canadiens over the last few years, as the team generates nearly three expected goals per 60 minutes with them on the ice, and nearly 3.0 actual goals, meaning their production is in line with their play.
The second reason is that they should match up frequently against the third line for Vancouver, and they’ve been poor defensively this year with an expected goals against rate of 2.6 per 60 minutes. This is a good offensive matchup for Byron and his line mates, making him fine as salary relief in all formats tonight.
Jakub Vrana (WSH vs. WPG): DraftKings – $5,100; FanDuel – $5,300
Even with Evgeny Kuznetsov healthy and Kovalchuk acquired via trade, Vrana remains on the top power play unit for the Capitals. That he’s done so with those external forces applying lineup pressure is very impressive. The coaching staff clearly thinks a lot of him, and rightfully so, given his performance over the last two years.
Over his last five games, some of which include Kuznetsov, Vrana has been playing 16:56 a night, compared to his season average of 14:59, meaning he’s seeing a lot more ice time of late, which includes that top power play slotting. It’s a good thing tonight too, as he should see the Connor-Copp-Laine line from Winnipeg. They should be atrocious defensively, as Connor and Laine are both in the bottom 12 percent of the league by defensive impacts over the last two years. Vrana’s line, meanwhile, has been excellent over the last two seasons, posting an expected goals rate of 2.6 per 60 minutes and an actual goal rate of 3.6 per 60 minutes. To boot, Winnipeg has one of the worst penalty kills in the league. Vrana is fine in any format as a one-off.
NHL DFS Picks: Defense
Roman Josi (NSH vs. OTT): DraftKings – $7,300; FanDuel – $6,400
It’s been a superlative year for Josi, if not for the Predators as a whole. He’s two goals and five points away from career highs, and is also enjoying the highest shot rate of his life (3.67 per game). In every manner, Josi has truly been one of the greatest defensemen this year, which is why he’s priced where he is.
Ottawa is coming to town with a roster that just traded its top-line center, a second-pair defenseman and middle-six winger. And they were a potential lottery team before all that. All three of those guys were part of the penalty kill squadron, which could be a big problem for a team that gives up the fifth-most power plays and is a bottom-10 penalty kill by almost every relevant metric. Nashville’s power play isn’t fearsome, but even they should be able to take advantage of this tonight. Josi is fine as part of a stack with other Predator forwards, but he really should be targeted as a one-off tonight.
Ottawa coming to town tonight should make Nashville and Josi popular, even on a 13-game slate, so be aware of that.
Ethan Bear (EDM at ANA): DraftKings – $3,700; FanDuel – $3,800
It has been three games for Edmonton without Oscar Klefbom, and the team did not address the blue line at the trade deadline aside from Mike Green, and he shouldn’t see a significant role. In the three games without Klefbom, Bear averaged 24:08 and played at least 25 minutes in two of them. Maybe Green will cut into that a bit, but we should still see Bear play more than the 21 or so minutes he has been playing most of the year.
This is about finding a cheap defenseman from a team with a 3.3 implied goal total who should see little ownership. Bear is a good puck mover at a cheap price in a solid offensive matchup.
Stacks
Washington Second Line of Vrana-Backstrom-Oshie
All three guys are on the top power play unit, which gives them additional value as NHL DFS picks here. As mentioned in the section on Vrana, they should see favorable deployment against the defensively porous second line from Winnipeg. That they’re all on the same power play unit means one of them can be left off in favor of John Carlson or Alex Ovechkin (or just add them to the stack). Regardless, this is a line that isn’t expensive, meaning we can fit in other good lines or defensemen, and they’re in a great matchup.
St. Louis Top Line of Schenn-O’Reilly-Schwartz
We still don’t have much of a sample for this line, but we do have a large sample for the line they’ll be facing: JonathanToews’ top line from Chicago. That line from the Blackhawks has been an absolute blackhole of defensive ability, posting 3.6 expected goals against per 60 minutes and 5.0 actual goals against. It honestly doesn’t get much worse than that (just anecdotally, I don’t ever remember seeing a line with numbers like that after 130 minutes together). The St. Louis top line should be able to skate all over Chicago tonight.
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