NHL DFS: Power Plays for DraftKings and FanDuel, October 14th (FREE)

Sebastian Aho & Daily Fantasy Hockey: The first thing that needs to be understood about this particular NHL DFS slate is that obtaining the latest information will be crucial. It’s a slate that begins early in the afternoon in the east, and early games means no morning skates for those teams. The lack of morning skates means we won’t get confirmation on lines until possibly a coach availability an hour or so before warmups, or more likely warmups themselves. Sometimes there are practices to glean information, but teams don’t often practice on Sundays, meaning we have to go off of the previous game for line combinations. All line combinations discussed in this article are very much subject to change in the hours leading to puck drop.

Stay tuned to our Slack, be sure to check out Jake’s video in the morning, and for those with Twitter, I have an NHL list of over 160 writers to help you with DraftKings and FanDuel lineups!

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Check out our NHL Strategy Show for today (10ET) where we broke down each of the games on today’s slate!


Center

David Krejci (DraftKings – $3800, FanDuel – $5200)

In all honesty, much of this is about the pricing discrepancy between the two sites. Krejci had been priced several hundred dollars higher on DraftKings recently but has seen his price drop as he’s posted zero goals and one assist in four games.

Though his price is dropping, his ice time is not. In fact, Krejci has seen his ice time increase from the sub-16 minutes he posted on opening night, landing closer to his mark of 17:41 per game last year. The biggest reason for using him today is the matchup.

Last year, the Ducks fired coach Randy Carlyle on Feb. 10. They had been close to the worst team in the league up to that point, but putting literally anyone else behind the bench improved their offensive and defensive metrics. Since that point, the Ducks have been more respectable, but are still allowing nearly 60 shot attempts per 60 minutes when the duo of Ryan Getzlaf and Ondrej Kase are off the ice at five on five, compared to 47.8 per 60 minutes when they’re on the ice. That duo should see a lot of the Patrice Bergeron, allowing Krejci and company to feast on the weaker depth from the Ducks.

Ryan Nugent-Hopkins (DraftKings – $5100)

It’s a new year but it’s the same old Blackhawks. Last season, after firing coach Joel Quenneville in early November, they allowed the 10th-most shot attempts per 60 minutes at five on five. On the penalty kill, they allowed the third most. This year, they’ve slid at five on five to the fourth-most shot attempts allowed, though the penalty kill has improved to sixth fewest. But there’s some evidence–like shot maps at HockeyViz–that a lot of the shots on the penalty kill are coming from the slot, which was the case last year, so that would explain why the penalty kill is allowing so many goals (though, it’s been just three games, so let’s not judge a penalty kill too harshly).

Nugent-Hopkins has played at least 20 minutes in every game but one this year, and that speaks to the issues of the team. Regardless of their issues though, a center that can be expected to play 20 minutes in a matchup against one of the worst defensive teams in the league, and will play on the top power-play unit, should get strong consideration in every format.

It should be noted that the early returns on the second line of Nugent-Hopkins flanked by Tomas Jurco and James Neal have showed well in limited minutes together, to the tune of a pro-rated 67.3 shot attempts per 60 minutes. If that line can maintain that kind of pace against this poor defensive team, Nugent-Hopkins should find the scoresheet.

Wing

Ryan Hartman (DraftKings – $3500, FanDuel – $3400)

Volume is a big issue for DFS and ice time is obviously a heavy contributor to that. Minnesota was a team that practiced on Sunday at Hartman was skating on the second line alongside Kevin Fiala and Eric Staal. Staal is averaging 12:17 per game at five on five this year, which would add a couple of minutes to Hartman’s total ice time. Hartman ranks second on the team in shot attempts taken per minute this year at five on five, so more ice time will lead to a higher volume in shots. As it is, he’s averaging two per game on the year.

Going into Ottawa is probably the best road matchup in the league. This is a team built to tank for a lottery pick and it bears out as they’ve allowed nearly the most shot attempts per 60 minutes at five on five this year. Hartman is unlikely to get to the power play, but that’s also part of why he’s priced where he is.

Minnesota has struggled to score this year, often changing their lines. If they can’t get going early on the road, the lineup might not last the first period. But if Hartman can at least maintain his role for this game, his shot volume makes him a scoring threat in this matchup.

Defense

Ryan Pulock (DraftKings – $4200, FanDuel – $4000)

On the first Sunday of the season, Pulock was $5900 in a home matchup against Winnipeg. Fast forward a little over a week and he’s all the way down to $4200. Granted, he has zero goals and one assist in five games, but five games shouldn’t really be enough to sway our priors too much, and if Pulock was $4200 eight days ago, how much interest would there be in playing him?

Last seen on the same power-play unit as Mat Barzal, Pulock and Barzal have been on the ice for over seven goals per 60 minutes with the man advantage over the last two years and change. While that’s not a big number in and of itself, that’s a full three goals above the team’s average with those two off the ice, so it shows their efficacy.

It’s still very early but St. Louis has not shown well by most defensive metrics at every strength. Taking a chance on a cheap option like Pulock is the exact type of chance to take as a one-off option.

Nikita Zaitsev (DraftKings – $3600, FanDuel – $3600)

The section on Hartman described Ottawa’s defensive woes so there’s no need to dig deeper there. Though there may be arguments to make about shot quality allowed, the fact remains they’re allowing a lot of shot attempts, which means a lot of opportunities for blocks. 11 blocks in four games shows that. That’s nothing new for him as he blocked 151 last year.

Ottawa’s shot generation is an early storyline to follow. Their shot attempts and expected goals both rank in the top-10 league-wide. While five games isn’t concrete of anything, we may not have to wait long before finding out if this really is just a high-paced team at both ends of the rink. They did have 63 total shots against Tampa Bay and St. Louis. If they are a high-paced team, that’s just more opportunities for Zaitsev to get involved offensively.

Using Zaitsev means understanding his value comes from his shot blocking. He has hit the bonus on DraftKings in three of four games this year, and his role and minutes on this particular team are the reasons. Getting into the offense is just gravy. 

Top NHL DFS Stacks

First New Jersey Line of Hall-Hischier-Palmieri

New Jersey has had its issues this year but when the trio of Hall-Hischier-Palmieri are on the ice, they’ve scored over four goals per 60 minutes at five on five and control 57 percent of the shots. Going back to the start of the 2017 season, in over 600 minutes together at five on five, this trio is responsible for over 34.5 shots and 4.2 goals per 60 minutes, both fantastic marks.

Price is also a factor here. The full trio comes in just under $17 000 on DraftKings and $18 600 on FanDuel, both very reasonable prices. That price, in a home matchup against a Florida team that is near the middle of the league in expected goals against at five on five, makes them a tournament target. 

Second Chicago Line of Shaw-Strome-Kane

At time of writing, the Edmonton-Chicago game is a very small favorite for the over 6.5 goals, with Chicago the home favorite. There are a lot of goals expected in this game, and the second line from the Blackhawks is as good a spot as any to look.

Last year, in Montreal, Andrew Shaw had a career year with 47 points in 63 games alongside Max Domi and Jonathan Drouin. Both of those players are skilled but are not necessarily play-drivers. Well, that’s the exact situation Shaw finds himself in Chicago, though it’s an upgrade with Patrick Kane on the other side. This is another trio in a home matchup where a lot of goals are expected and they are not expensive to stack, coming in a few hundred cheaper than the New Jersey top line. 

Remember, double-check your information sources, or our Slack, for lineup combinations on this afternoon slate. 

Michael has been writing about fantasy hockey for over a decade, and has been playing Daily Fantasy for just as long. He has contributed to both the Chicago Tribune and the Boston Herald, has worked for Rogers Sportsnet in Canada and is now in his fifth season with Stokastic. He lives in Fredericton, New Brunswick, Canada, and can be reached on Twitter @SlimCliffy.

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