DraftKings and FanDuel NHL DFS: It’s a six-game slate on this Monday night, the first night of action following the All-Star Game. Alex Ovechkin is off the slate due to suspension, but there is still loads of elite talent including Auston Matthews, Nikita Kucherov and many more.
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Be sure to join myself and Jake Hari for our ‘Power Plays’ show where we break down each game on the slate, our favourite stacks, and goalies we’re targeting.
NHL DFS Picks – Center
Matt Duchene (NSH vs. TOR): DraftKings – $5,100; FanDuel – $6,200
It’s worth noting that while Duchene has likely been a disappointment in general this year, he’s still on an 82-game pace of nearly 60 points and 190 shots. In a disappointing year, that’s still not bad.
Regardless, for this slate, he’s lining up with Filip Forsberg and Mikael Granlund on his flanks, and that trio has been great for Nashville this year; in 178 minutes together, that line is responsible for generating 2.9 expected goals and 15.6 high-danger chances per 60 minutes, both very good offensive numbers. They’re on the ice for nearly 70 shot attempts per 60 minutes, which means they’re creating both volume and quality, a dangerous and hopefully profitable mix.
Duchene’s line is not used in a checking role, which means they should get fairly good deployment against a Toronto team that has been average defensively over the last month. That’s a good matchup for him on this slate. The issue is that Duchene doesn’t play huge minutes but he’s priced appropriately. In this home matchup with these line mates, he’s a target in any format.
Jack Hughes (NJD at OTT): DraftKings – $3,900; FanDuel – $4,200
Since the trade of Taylor Hall, Jack Hughes leads all New Jersey forwards in ice time with the man advantage per game at 3:19. It’s a distant first place as well, as no teammate of his is over 2:50 in that span. New Jersey’s power play has been the worst in the league in that span, but we can chalk that up to shooting under five percent, something that cannot persist long-term. The reality is they’re sixth in the league in shots generated on the power play in that span, they’re jut not finding the back of the net. They’re lacking shooting talent, sure, but that doesn’t fully explain shooting under five percent. They’re getting unlucky right now.
This is all good news for Hughes, as they go into Ottawa tonight to face a Senators team that is the fifth-most penalized in the NHL. That should give Hughes lots of ice time with the man advantage.
For anyone looking for a cheap one-off at low ownership tonight, Hughes is a guy to target. He should have ample opportunities on the power play and this isn’t even a bad five-on-five matchup for the Devils, as bad as they are themselves.
NHL DFS Picks – Winger
Timo Meier (SJ vs. ANA): DraftKings – $4,800; FanDuel – $5,700
It’s obvious that the 2019-20 iteration of the San Jose Sharks is not nearly as proficient offensively as teams in recent memory. That doesn’t mean there isn’t value to be found at times, particularly at home to a bad team on a six-game slate. Let’s get to that bad team for a minute.
Over the last quarter of the season – back to mid-December – the Anaheim Ducks have the fifth-worst expected goals against per 60 minutes at five-on-five, worse than teams like Chicago and Detroit. Meier looks to be skating on the top line with Tomas Hertl and Evander Kane, and that likely means matching with Ryan Getzlaf’s line at five-on-five. That’s actually good news for Meier and company as it’s the line of Adam Henrique that is the one to avoid defensively; matching against Getzlaf in 2020 isn’t the same as matching against Getzlaf in 2016.
Like Duchene, an issue here is ice time, as Meier has been stuck around 15-16 minutes, but that’s also why he’s priced where he is. But that also included several games on the third line, so hopefully there’s a minutes boost tonight. He’s fine as a one-off in any format.
Jakub Vrana (WSH at MTL): DraftKings – $5,700; FanDuel – $5,600
I’ll be up front and say this is a bit of guesswork on my part. Alex Ovechkin won’t be playing tonight as he’s serving a one-game suspension for skipping the All-Star Game. Typically, Washington going into Montreal would mean Ovechkin sees the Phillip Danault shutdown line, with Jakub Vrana seeing the second line. With Ovechkin out of the lineup (Richard Panik is slated to take his spot on the top line) does the Danault line shift their responsibility to Vrana’s line? I’m wagering they don’t. I could very well be wrong here, it’s just an educated guess.
The reason that’s important is the Danault line is great defensively, even with Ilya Kovalchuk there. We’re talking under 1.7 expected goals per 60 minutes with the league average being over 2.2. That’s how good they’ve been, and why we want to avoid that matchup.
By all available metrics, Montreal has a bottom-10 penalty kill, and Vrana is still on the top unit. It’s a bit of a gamble to use him tonight, but he’s talented enough that it’s worth the risk, especially on FanDuel where he’s a bit cheaper, comparatively.
NHL DFS Picks – Defense
Jake Muzzin (TOR at NSH): DraftKings – $3,300; FanDuel – $3,800
Muzzin should return for the Toronto Maple Leafs tonight, missing a month with a broken foot. Since his injury, Morgan Rielly himself was injured, and that means Muzzin is now the de facto top left-shot defenseman on Toronto’s roster. He’s expected to go right to the top pair, and even with Rielly in the lineup, Muzzin was regularly playing 20-21 minutes. He should play more than that tonight with Rielly gone from the lineup.
Nashville has been without Ryan Ellis all month. In that span, they’ve posted 2.25 expected goals against per 60 minutes, about league average. That’s a considerable drop from the first three months of the season when the team was top-five in this regard at 2.05. He is a big part of their team and is arguably their best defensive defenseman. It’s no surprise they’re much worse off without him, but that’s good news for Muzzin and the Leafs tonight.
At his price, playing on this team, considering the minutes he might get, Muzzin is firmly on the radar in all formats tonight. He probably won’t get power-play minutes, but if he’s still on the top pair and his ownership will be depressed because of a lack of power play time.
Jeff Petry (MTL vs. WSH): DraftKings – $4,600; FanDuel – $4,500
This seems to go underreported, but Washington is the second-most penalized team in the NHL behind only the Rangers. Now, they have a good penalty kill, and that’s why they have the third-lowest goals against per 60 minutes while short-handed. But they take so many penalties, their actual goals against total is only 13th-best, near the middle of the league. So while the Caps have a great penalty kill, they also take a lot of penalties, and it’s probably best to view them as a league-average penalty kill. Petry is on what should be called the team’s first power play unit, but they basically split minutes between the two anyway.
Beyond the special team matchup, Washington isn’t great defensively. At the least, they’re mid-pack since American Thanksgiving by expected goals against at five-on-five. When combined with the rate of penalties they take, and it’s obvious this is a decent matchup for Petry and the Canadiens. He’s fine to use as a one-off in any format, particularly on FanDuel because of his price.
Stacks
Ottawa top line of Tkachuk-Pageau-Duclair
This particular iteration of the top line has a sky-high expected goal rate when compared to its actual shot generation. The reason for this is Brady Tkachuk is particularly adept at getting to the front of the net for his shot attempts, meaning he’s very good at generating quality shots (he’s second in the NHL by individual expected goals). That’s good news for tonight, as they host New Jersey and their top line is below average by shot attempts allowed. All three Ottawa forwards should skate together on the power play and New Jersey is the fourth-most penalized team in the NHL.
Quick note: Anthony Duclair is poor defensively, so his inclusion on that line makes them considerably worse defensively overall. That would put New Jersey’s top line in play as well.
Nashville second line of Forsberg-Duchene-Granlund
For all the reasons mentioned in the section for using Duchene, the entire line makes a solid target tonight. We should add that the price is only $15,500 on DraftKings (they’re relatively cheaper there than on FanDuel) and that’s a big factor here.
