We have a healthy 11-game slate for Tuesday, Feb. 11, which gives us a cornucopia of NHL DFS picks to choose from. We have a new line mate for Sidney Crosby, a good matchup for Leon Draisaitl and Auston Matthews at home without potentially his fellow elite center, John Tavares. There is a lot to go through, so let’s dig in.
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NHL DFS Picks: Center
Mika Zibanejad (NYR at WPG): DraftKings – $7,900; FanDuel – $8,000
Here at Awesemo NHL, we have certain matchups that we like to favor, and one of them is top lines going into Winnipeg. Those top lines usually match the top line from Winnipeg, and the Winnipeg top line has an expected goals against per 60 minutes exceeding 3.00 on the year. Their actual goals against is basically in line with that expected goal number, meaning this isn’t some sort of defensive mirage where the numbers don’t tell the story. The numbers, in fact, tell the story pretty well. To boot, though the Jets don’t take a lot of penalties, they do possess one of the worst penalty kills in the league.
Zibanejad’s line hasn’t been as good this year as in prior seasons, but they’re still slightly above average offensively, and that’s more than good enough to take full advantage of a great in-game matchup. Zibanejad also skates on the team’s top power play unit, and that top unit has been very good offensively this year. Zibanejad is fine to use as a one-off in any format, though his price is tough to swallow in a road matchup for cash games.
Christian Dvorak (ARI at TOR): DraftKings – $4,700; FanDuel – $5,100
The addition to Taylor Hall has certainly brought out the best in Dvorak’s offensive game, as Dvorak has eight goals in 21 games since being put alongside Hall back in December. That doesn’t sound significant, but that’s playing to more than a 30-goal pace for a guy who, before this season, had never exceeded 15 goals. The shooting percentage in that span is high, but not as high as his full rookie season (17 percent), and that Hall has made Dvorak more efficient offensively isn’t a big surprise.
Dvorak should be matched up against Tavares’ line, and whether Tavares is in the lineup or not (he’s a game-time decision), it’s a better matchup for Dvorak and company. There’s also the increased ice time, as he’s been playing over 18 minutes a night over the team’s last 10 games, averaging over two shots per game in the meantime (he’s never been a big volume shooter, so that’s a good mark for him).
Whether as part of a stack or as a one-off, this isn’t a bad matchup for the Coyotes, and they should largely be left alone on a slate as large as this. Dvorak is a good way of getting top-line exposure without paying an exorbitant price.
Be sure to check out our live show over on YouTube at 4 p.m. EST! Join Jake Hari and Nolan Kelly as they break down the slate for tonight.
NHL DFS Picks: Winger
Blake Coleman (NJ vs. FLA): DraftKings – $6,000; FanDuel – $4,700
Hockey is a funny game. At the time the Devils stared benching Hall in anticipation of a trade, they were 9-16-5. Since that benching on Dec. 11, the team is 11-8-5. A big reason for that is Coleman, as he has 12 goals in 24 games in that span, a 41-goal pace per 82 games. Here’s the kicker: he’s shooting 11.5 percent over those 24 games, which isn’t far off his shooting percentage in his breakout 2018-19 season (10.3 percent). The reason for the big goal spurt is that he’s averaging over 4.3 shots per game in those 24 contests. He, along with his line mates, have been mostly good for two months now.
The bonus for this game is that Coleman and his line mates will match up against Florida’s top line, and that top line has not been good defensively this year, coming in at 2.6 expected goals against per 60 minutes, well below average. There is some safety in Coleman (as much as there can be in NHL DFS), as he’s played at least 17 minutes in every game since Hall’s departure, averaging 18:37. He’s in a good home matchup and has a high expected shot volume. He’s fine as a one-off in any format, and can be used as part of a line stack for tournaments, but he’s so cheap on FanDuel that he should be heavily targeted on that site.
Dominik Kubalik (CHI at EDM): DraftKings – $4,800; FanDuel – $4,800
Two things of note here: first, Kubalik’s line with Jonathan Toews and Drake Caggiula has been pretty good offensively this year, posting 3.4 expected goals and 3.4 actual goals per 60 minutes at five-on-five. Even without Caggiula there, the Toews/Kubalik combination has been well above average offensively by expected goals. The second thing to note is that they should match up with Connor McDavid, who is admittedly playing through a charley horse, and whose line (particularly with Zack Kassian) has been well below average defensively. This is a good matchup for Kubalik.
If DFS players haven’t caught on to how good Kubalik is, they probably should start getting familiar. At five-on-five, he leads Chicago forwards in goals per 60 minutes, is second in points per 60 (just a shade behind Patrick Kane), second in individual expected goals per 60 minutes and first in shots per 60. His shot rate league-wide is ahead of noted volume shooters like Evander Kane and Filip Forsberg. At his price in this matchup, Kubalik is fine to use either in tournament or cash games, though he is likely better as a one-off than part of a stack.
NHL DFS Picks: Defense
Cale Makar (COL vs. OTT): DraftKings – $6,000; FanDuel – $5,900
With Ottawa in town, Colorado should be fairly popular among DFS players, and for good reason. The idea behind highlighting Makar specifically is Ottawa has given the fifth-most power play opportunities per game in the league this year while Colorado is third for power play opportunities. They should get a good amount of power play chances in this game, and that’s where Makar shines. It’s not to say he can’t produce at five-on-five, but he has over 40 percent of his points coming from the man advantage. Clearly, that’s where he draws his upside for tournaments.
The bright side is that Colorado seemingly has stopped tinkering with their power play. They had been trying different combinations, but went back to a locked top unit, and Makar played 3:24 of a possible 4:27 on the power play in their last game. If he’s getting three-quarters of the power play minutes, then he could be in line for a lot of power play time tonight.
If Makar goes nuclear, there’s a good chance it will be because of the power play, and that means the elite players from Colorado will succeed as well. Keep that in mind when constructing rosters.
Rasmus Dahlin (BUF vs. DET): DraftKings – $4,900; FanDuel – $5,600
It’s been a rough year for Dahlin and the Sabres in general, though Dahlin’s current point pace is 55 points per 82 games for the season, so has it really been that bad? He’s shown signs of a rebounding season, with 10 points in 13 games since the calendar turned to 2020, averaging two shots and one block per contest.
The big reason for using him tonight is the power play. Detroit is in town, and their penalty kill is in the bottom five of the NHL in every objective public measurement we have. The Buffalo power play as presently constructed has been very good by comparison, managing over 100 shot attempts per 60 minutes, generally my benchmark for a good power play/bad penalty kill. Dahlin’s power play impacts have been excellent for his career, which makes him a target tonight despite everything else going on with the team, though I would be more excited to use him in tournaments.
Stacks
Edmonton Second Line of Nugent-Hopkins-Draisaitl-Yamamoto
Since being united when Yamamoto got recalled, the Oilers second line has posted an expected goals for rate exceeding 2.8 per 60 minutes, generating nearly 67 shot attempts per 60 as well. They’re going to see the depth from Chicago, who is abysmal defensively all around. I have no issue leaving off one of the wingers for McDavid (particularly Yamamoto), but it feels like this line is good enough on its own with enough power play exposure to have a good night without his contributions.
New Jersey Second Line of Gusev-Zajac-Coleman
As discussed on our video show on Monday, I have no issues with leaving Zajac off the stack and adding someone like Severson or Subban for additional power play exposure.
As discussed earlier in the article, the second line for the Devils has been very good since Hall’s trade, posting 2.52 expected goals per 60 minutes. They get a good matchup, as mentioned, and will probably go overlooked on such a large slate. They will be firmly in my mix tonight.
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