NHL DFS: Power Plays for DraftKings, FanDuel – 2/20 (FREE)

Today is a healthy eight-game NHL DFS slate, which gives us lots of opportunities to select our players. The general theme of this article, particularly among the forwards, will be pricing discrepancies between DraftKings and FanDuel. Let’s get to it.


Not a member of Awesemo? No worries, sign up HERE to gain access to the world’s best DFS player’s projections, rankings, tools, and premium live blog. Use promo code NHLSTRATEGY for half off your first week!


Centers

Anze Kopitar (LA vs. FLA): DraftKings – $5,400; FanDuel – $7,400

It’s been a bad year for the Kings, but Kopitar is still doing just fine; as of today, he’s on pace for 73 points. His big issue is that he doesn’t shoot much. In fact, he’s under two shots per game on the season. As far as a floor for DFS, it’s low because of this fact. That makes him a concern for cash games.

In tournaments, though, this is a good matchup for Kopitar and his line mates. Florida’s top line has replaced Evgenii Dadonov for Noel Acciari over their last few games, and that’s a bad swap for that line. Assuming relative consistency, Acciari and Dadonov have similar impacts defensively, but Dadonov is considerably better than Acciari offensively. That should lead to the Panthers spending more time in their zone, meaning a good spot for Kopitar.

One of the big reasons for using Kopitar is his price on DraftKings; he’s $2,000 cheaper than on FanDuel. On the former, he’s the 12th-most expensive center, while he’s the fifth-most expensive on the latter. He’s a tournament one-off target, though he can be used as part of a stack with his line mates (not much exposure should be necessary to be overweight on the field).

Nick Suzuki (MTL at WSH): DraftKings – $4,500; FanDuel – $5,400

Suzuki had a goal and an assist for us earlier this week so let’s hope lightning strikes twice. (No, we’re not using him just because he was recommended on Tuesday, just wanted to make that clear.)

The Capitals should get Evgeny Kuznetsov back tonight from injury, and that’s great news for Montreal’s second line. Well, it makes the Capitals more dangerous offensively, but it also makes that second line considerably worse defensively. With Kuznetsov back on that line, Washington’s second line jumps by an entire expected goal (and doubles in actual goals) per 60 minutes. It’s a deplorable line defensively, and that’s good news for Suzuki and company.

One issue is that Suzuki’s ice time is very fluid. In recent games, he’s been as low as 14:33 and as high as 18:23. That kind of inconsistency makes Suzuki unreliable for cash game use, though he is fairly cheap on DraftKings. All the same, he’s likely a better one-off target for tournaments, given the lack of power play correlation with his wingers.

Wingers

Nikolaj Ehlers (WPG at OTT): DraftKings – $5,800; FanDuel – $5,100

Because of the talent up front for the Jets, it’s easy for Ehlers to get lost in the shuffle. However, we can’t overlook him just because he’s not on the top power play unit. He’s on pace for 28 goals, 65 points and 238 shots. Those are excellent numbers for a scoring winger and are even more impressive when considering his lack of power play exposure. (This lack of power play exposure is also limiting his upside in general, but the purpose is to show that he can be good in DFS without it.)

Unsurprisingly, the numbers for Ehlers with Mark Scheifele have been good since being assembled, posting 2.6 expected goals and 4.9 actual goals per 60 minutes. That second number is being supported by an unsustainable shooting percentage, but Scheifele has been able to prove that he can drive high percentages in the past. Not this high – over 14 percent – but high, nonetheless.

Depending on the matchup going into Ottawa, it’ll be average-to-good for Ehlers and Scheifele, but Ehlers is getting more ice time as he’s moved up the lineup (a little under a minute per game) and that’s good for his shot rates. He’s too cheap on FanDuel for people to just him pass. Because of his expected lower ownership than some of his Jets brethren, he’s fine as a one-off for tournaments.

Blake Coleman (TB at VGK): DraftKings – $2,500; FanDuel – $4,500

This is clearly a gross mispricing from DraftKings due to the trade of Coleman from New Jersey to Tampa Bay. There’s no reason why he should be min-priced on DraftKings; compared to Florida’s Mike Hoffman, Coleman has been slightly better on a per-game basis, and Hoffman is $3,700 more expensive. DraftKings dropped the ball here.

The problem is that he’s undoubtedly going to be incredibly popular. Anyone using a spreadsheet will figure out this gross mispricing. So it’s a matter of how many shares of Coleman people want to use. I couldn’t even guess at ownership.

I want to mention his price is fine on FanDuel as well, it’s just not the stone min like it is on DraftKings. The issue is likely that Coleman is lining up on the third line for Tampa Bay, and he had been playing 18-20 minutes a night of late with New Jersey. He won’t get those minutes with the Lightning. Just beware of a shot volume drop due to ice time loss. That would especially be true going into Vegas, one of the toughest matchups for a team, defensively speaking.


Check us out on TWITTER, where we talk sports, share articles and have lots of giveaways. Just click HERE


Defensemen

Thomas Chabot (OTT vs. WPG): DraftKings – $5,700; FanDuel – $5,300

We should be expecting more ice time from Chabot tonight. Blue line mate Dylan DeMelo was traded earlier this week and in the first game without him, Chabot surpassed 28 minutes in ice time. Chabot generally gets a lot of minutes anyway, but a regular being removed should only guarantee that level of elite time one ice.

It’s no secret the Jets are a bad defensive team. Their all-situations expected goals against sit at 2.9 per 60 minutes, 26th in the league. Very good goaltending from Connor Hellebuyck – he’s ninth in goals saved above average per 60 minutes – has saved them. Picking on a team relying on goaltending can be a double-edged sword for obvious reasons, but that’s no reason to avoid the matchup.

Winnipeg doesn’t take a ton of penalties but they do have a very bad penalty kill, ranking 29th in shot attempts allowed per 60 minutes at 4-on-5, which has led to ranking 28th in goals against per 60 minutes. Ottawa will have good chances to convert if they can get to the power play, now run by Chabot. He’s fine to use as a one-off in any format, and he’s reasonably priced on both sites.

Markus Nutivaara (CBJ vs. PHI): DraftKings – $2,900; FanDuel – $3,600

In the five games since Seth Jones’ injury, Nutivaara’s ice time has exploded from 14:04 per game to 20:38 per game. In that span, he has a pair of assists, 11 shots on goal and four blocks. Those are not bad numbers for a guy priced so cheap around the industry, and finding cheap NHL DFS guys to use can be very important on slates loaded with talent like tonight.

This isn’t much more than a punt option for tonight’s slate. With Blake Coleman, it’s likely not necessary to double punt unless DFS players are going with super expensive picks everywhere, but it’s also an alternative for those who want to get away from the likely sky-high ownership of Coleman (No, Nutivaara doesn’t have the same upside, or the same likelihood of upside, as Coleman. This isn’t a direct swap, it’s just a different player to use at nearly the same price point).

Stacks

Washington power play stack of Ovechkin-Backstrom-Carlson

Typically, when I write these Power Play articles, I don’t like to use incredibly obvious stacks, and this would certainly qualify. With Brendan Gallagher missing from the Montreal top line, though, Washington’s top line gets a reprieve; Montreal’s top line, since the Tatar trade a couple years ago, has been about 10 percent worse defensively without Gallagher there. For Washington, going from a bad matchup to an average one is a huge boost for a threat like Alex Ovechkin. Feel free to get creative with the stacks, like adding in T.J. Oshie to make a four-man stack or removing Nicklas Backstrom to differentiate.

St. Louis top line of Schenn-O’Reilly-Schwartz

We don’t have much of a sample of this line playing together since Ryan O’Reilly got to the Blues, but Brayden Schenn and Jaden Schwartz have excellent offensive numbers together, so adding a true top-line center like O’Reilly is unlikely to hurt much. They should be tasked with shutting down Arizona’s top line, which is itself a good matchup (the Arizona top line has an expected goals against about a full standard deviation below average). At their reasonable prices across the industry, they’re not prohibitive for fitting in another medium-priced stack or an upper-tier defenseman.


Looking for more NHL DFS picks content? We’ve got loads of articles, data, cheatsheets and more on the Awesemo NHL home page, just click HERE

Michael has been writing about fantasy hockey for over a decade, and has been playing Daily Fantasy for just as long. He has contributed to both the Chicago Tribune and the Boston Herald, has worked for Rogers Sportsnet in Canada and is now in his fifth season with Stokastic. He lives in Fredericton, New Brunswick, Canada, and can be reached on Twitter @SlimCliffy.

Stokastic +

Premium Data and Tools
PREMIUM TOOLS
Lineup Generator
Stokastic Sims MLB
PREMIUM DATA
Projections
Top Stack %s
MLB Data Central
FREE DATA
SoRare MLB Rankings
DraftKings Night Owl
FANTASY CRUNCHER (ADD-ON)
MLB Lineup Study
COMMUNITY
MLB Discord Server
PREMIUM DATA
Projections
Ownership Projections
PREMIUM TOOLS
Fantasy Cruncher (ADD-ON)
NHL Lineup Study
COMMUNITY
NHL Discord Server
PREMIUM TOOLS
Lineup Generator
Stokastic Sims PGA
PREMIUM DATA
Ownership Projections
Top Golfers Tool
PGA Tournament Models
FANTASY CRUNCHER (ADD-ON)
PGA Lineup Study
COMMUNITY
PGA Discord Server
Ownership Projections
Top Drivers Tool
NASCAR Discord Server
NASCAR Fantasy Cruncher
USFL Projections
USFL Discord Server
Ownership Projections
Top Fighters Tool
MMA Discord Server
MMA Fantasy Cruncher
NFL Betting Tools
Stokastic Discord Server
Best Ball
Best Ball Rankings
Best Ball Stat Projections
Stokastic Discord Server
Season Long Fantasy (Coming Soon)

Premium Data

DFS Winners from the Stokastic Community

Subscribe to the Stokastic newsletter

DFS advice, exciting promos, and the best bets straight to your inbox

Stokastic.com - Daily Fantasy Sports and Sports Betting Data, Tools, & Analytics

Please play responsibly. Only customers 21 and over are permitted to play. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-GAMBLER.