It’s a small six-game slate for this Monday night that features a few elite NHL DFS picks like Alex Ovechkin, Steven Stamkos and Nikita Kucherov. Let’s figure out where else to spend our money to help fit in these top-tier picks.
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NHL DFS Picks: Center
Pierre-Luc Dubois (CBJ vs. TB): DraftKings – $5,200; FanDuel – $5,900
Even with the exodus of talent the team saw over the summer, Columbus’ Pierre-Luc Dubois has posted a nearly identical points/game mark as last year. For good measure, he’s increased his blocks and shots per game as well. He’s really starting to see a much larger role with the team, playing over 19 minutes a night since the All-Star Game, compared to 17:41 per game prior.
As far as the matchup is concerned, Dubois should face off against Tampa’s top line, and though they’ve been good defensively on the road this year, they’re closer to league average than people might suspect. It is not an insurmountable matchup.
Putting Dubois with Oliver Bjorkstrand has paid off huge dividends, as when that duo is on the ice, the team generates over 2.5 expected goals per 60 minutes, more than a standard deviation above average. Dubois isn’t a threat for many bonuses, meaning he has a low floor, so this is more of a tournament one-off option.
Kevin Hayes (PHI vs. FLA): DraftKings – $4,500; FanDuel – $5,500
The Flyers have changed their lines around a bit of late, and that’s moved Kevin Hayes to the second-line center spot with Travis Konecny and Scott Laughton on his wings.
One big reason for using Hayes tonight is the matchup. With Florida coming to town, the Sean Couturier line should cover the top line from the Panthers, leaving Hayes to match against Florida’s second line. That second line of Trocheck-Connolly-Acciari has been awful defensively, posting an expected goals against rate of 2.78 per 60 minutes (about 2.22 is league average). This is a great matchup for Hayes and company.
Playing with Konecny should help Hayes offensively by a fair amount. Over the last three years, Konecny rates very well in driving goals, expected goals, and shot attempts, the hallmark of an offensive play-driver. That’s good for Hayes, whose role often leaves him focusing more on the defensive side.
Ice time has been an issue for Hayes of late, dipping down to 16 minutes at times in recent contests, but he played just under 18 minutes in their dismantling of Washington on Saturday with this new lineup configuration. Let’s hope deployment remains the same.
For more NHL DFS picks, be sure to check out today’s DFS strategy show with myself and Jake Hari! It will air at 4 p.m. EST and the links can be found on our Twitter account as the showtime approaches.
NHL DFS Picks: Winger
Anthony Beauvillier (NYI at WSH): DraftKings – $3,700; FanDuel – $5,200
This is more specifically for DraftKings, due to pricing. Very quietly, Anthony Beauvillier is putting up a very nice fantasy season, on pace for 23 goals and 53 points. In fact, he’s been better on a per-game basis fantasy-wise than teammate Jordan Eberle, and Eberle is nearly $1,000 more expensive on DrafKings.
Beauvillier’s line doesn’t have good offensive numbers together (below average by expected goals), but they do have a great matchup against Washington’s second line of Vrana-Kuznetsov-Oshie. That line has been reunited for this game, and that’s good for us because they’ve been throttled defensively this year, allowing nearly three expected goals per 60 minutes (and 3.28 actual goals). This is a fantastic matchup for New York’s second line.
When a guy is priced where Beauvillier is, there are normally issues, and his issues are a lack of shooting (under two per game) and inconsistent ice time (he has as many games under 14 minutes as he does over 17 minutes in his last five contests). That’s what pushes him to one-off status, and with a lack of power play correlation, it doesn’t make his line appealing for tournaments.
Viktor Arvidsson (NSH at VAN): DraftKings – $4,500; FanDuel – $6,400
This is another DraftKings-specific play due to pricing. Nashville’s lines have undergone a makeover lately, and Viktor Arvidsson has found himself on the third line with Nick Bonino and Rocco Grimaldi. That might seem like a bad thing – and it’s not ideal – but it should also get a lot of ownership off of him on a small-ish slate in a very good matchup. That’s great news for us.
Being on the third line also affords Arvidsson and his line mates matchups against the depth from Vancouver, and the depth from Vancouver is bad. In fact, their third line has an expected goals against rate of 2.62 per 60 minutes, considerably worse than even one standard deviation below average. While Arvidsson doesn’t have much time on the third line this year (as presently constructed), the duo of Bonino-Grimaldi has been great, and adding a great goal scorer like Arvidsson should only help.
Vancouver is one of the most penalized teams in the NHL and have, at best, an average penalty kill. Arvidsson being on the top power play unit adds more value in this very good matchup. This is a guy who should find his way into lineups as a one-off, be it for tournaments or cash games.
NOTE:Â Arvidsson has been moved up to the second line, which gives him a worse matchup, but he now gets to play with Filip Forsberg again, and he’s still far too cheap on DraftKings.
NHL DFS Picks: Defense
Jakob Chychrun (ARI at MTL): DraftKings – $5,000; FanDuel – $3,700
For a change of pace, here’s a FanDuel-specific play (though he’s still fine on DraftKings, he’s just grossly underpriced on FanDuel). The injury to Oliver Ekman-Larsson has forced different roles upon various Arizona defensemen, with Jordan Oesterle taking top power play duties and Jakob Chychrun getting more ice time. In the four games without Ekman-Larsson, Chychrun has averaged 23:46 per contest against 22:21. He has 15 shots, six blocks and three points in those four games (note that there’s a chance Ekman-Larsson will return tonight, but it would still leave Chychrun as a great option on FanDuel. It would be a much bigger knock to Oesterle’s fantasy value).
It’s been a good year for Chychrun, who has already set a career high in points and shots, and his health is a big reason why. His underlying impacts show that he’s been well above average in driving offense this year, and that’s one reason he’s a target.
Montreal will be without Shea Weber for this game, and he’s likely been Montreal’s best defensive defenseman on the season. With him out of the lineup, the defense is very exploitable, and a puck-mover like Chychrun should help in this regard.
Because he’s not on the top power play unit, Chychrun shouldn’t see much ownership tonight, with or without Ekman-Larsson in the lineup. Don’t let his non-top-power-play status fool, however, because he’s still a valuable fantasy player, as has been demonstrated all year.
David Savard (CBJ vs. TB): DraftKings – $3,400; FanDuel – $3,500
David Savard normally wouldn’t have been on my radar for this slate but the injury to Seth Jones changes things on the Columbus blue line. With Jones out, they need to replace 25 minutes a night, and Savard is the next right-handed defenseman up. Now, I don’t expect him to play 25 minutes, but he should play more than the 20 minutes he has on the season. Markus Nutivaara is starting on the top pair, but it’s hard to see coach Tortorella taking Nutivaara from 14 minutes a night on the year, and 10 minutes in his last game, to 20 minutes in this one.
Savard is having a weird year as his shots per game have declined to a six-year low (contributing to him having zero goals on the season), but he’s also on pace for 191 blocked shots, which would blow his previous career high of 143 out of the water. In fact, he has the third-highest shot blocking rate per 60 minutes among all blue liners this year, and additional ice time makes him a serious threat for the shot-block bonus on DraftKings.
This is for people looking for a cheap defenseman who should see more minutes and is a threat for the block bonus. This isn’t a guy to roster hoping he can pull a Mark Pysyk hat trick out of nowhere. He won’t start the game on the top pair, but the wager is he ends up with the most minutes of any of their right-handed defensemen.
NHL DFS Picks: Stacks
Nashville top line of Duchene-Johansen-Granlund
I understand if people want to leave Granlund off and add Roman Josi to get more exposure to the top power play unit. With that said, Granlund has been seeing monster minutes of late (over 20 minutes a game spanning his last six games), so maybe keep him there for a couple lineups.
Nashville’s top line should see the top line from Vancouver, and the duo of Pearson-Horvat has been below-average defensively this year. Adding Brandon Sutter to the line should help Vancouver defensively a bit, but he’s such a drag offensively that Nashville should still get the run of play. They’re also cheap enough (the forwards are anyway) that players can afford an expensive stack with them.
San Jose second line of Labanc-Thornton-Meier
It’s still a very small sample – about four games’ worth – so I don’t want to get too hyped about this trio, but their offensive numbers in this small sample have been huge. We know Meier is a good offensive play-driver and though Thornton isn’t the guy of five years ago, his shot assist rate (the rate at which his passes turn into shots for his line mates) was the best in the league last year (we don’t have a big sample for this year yet). That combination should hopefully play well, and they have perfect power play correlation together, an area where Labanc shines.
