It’s a nice seven-game slate on DraftKings and FanDuel today, meaning lots of NHL DFS picks to choose from. Awesemo members should stay tuned to our Slack channel for updates.
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Center
Nick Suzuki (MTL at DET): DraftKings – $5,000; FanDuel – $5,300
Going into Detroit should make the Montreal Canadiens fairly popular options, given how bad the Red Wings have been this year. The hope is that more people gravitate towards the top line and that leaves Suzuki with much less ownership.
It’s worth noting Suzuki’s rise in ice time. Up until the All-Star Game, he averaged 15:36 per contest. Since the All-Star Game, a span of 11 games, Suzuki is playing 17:36 per contest and has broken the 20-minute mark twice. He has also played at least 16 minutes in 10 of those 11 games, posting 11 points and 25 shots in that span. Now, it’s worth noting that he’s been considerably better defensively than offensively this year, but a matchup with Detroit’s porous second line is what helps tips the scales here.
Suzuki isn’t a volume shooter, which means we’re likely relying on point production rather than peripherals for value here tonight. That means he’s not really a target for cash games, even if the matchup is great. All the same, he and his line mates are in a great spot at a reasonable price. His top power play slotting means he can be used as a tournament one-off.
Brayden Schenn (STL vs. NJD): DraftKings – $5,300; FanDuel – $5,800
Tonight, the Blues host the lowly Devils, who just traded their captain and best two-way winger. The Ryan O’Reilly line from St. Louis will take New Jersey’s top line in matchups, leaving Schenn and company to take the new second line, one without Blake Coleman. It’s a small sample, but New Jersey’s second line without Coleman this year has been absolutely throttled to the tune of an expected goals against rate over 4.00 and less than 40 percent of the shot share. It’s hard to express how bad that is.
It’s also hard to overstate Coleman’s impact to that line. He’s the best defensive forward New Jersey had, and the next-best defensive winger (about 40 percent less effective) is on the top line. This second line is exposed right now and that makes for a great matchup for Schenn.
The issue for St. Louis is that they’re likely to be very popular tonight, as they’re the largest favorites on the slate, at home with an over/under of six. All the same, the matchup makes it hard to ignore, and Schenn is fine as a one-off for both tournaments and cash games.
(NOTE:Â As this story was published, we got word that St. Louis has a new top line, and it’s Schwartz-O’Reilly-Schenn. That almost certainly means they’re going to match against New Jersey’s top line, which is a worse matchup for Schenn, but the upgrade of Steen to O’Reilly is huge. Schenn is still firmly in play tonight.)
Winger
Andrei Svechnikov (CAR at NSH): DraftKings – $6,200; FanDuel – $6,600
Fantasy players have been waiting for a Carolina top line of Svechnikov-Aho-Teravainen, as we’ve seen glimpses before but never for a very long run. Well, they’re starting to get some run, and the numbers are absurd (in over 188 minutes): over 71 shot attempts and three expected goals per 60 minutes at five-on-five. It’s certainly worked out for Svechnikov, who has seven points and 16 shots in his last five games on this top line.
As for the matchup, they should see the Ryan Johansen line, and while they don’t have a big sample as a trio, the duo of Johansen/Arvidsson hasn’t been good defensively this year. Their third wheel – Mikael Granlund – should help in this regard, but the top line for Carolina is so good that Granlund’s impact is somewhat muted.
Nashville is one of the most penalized teams in the NHL, coming in at 10th-most times short-handed per game, so hopefully that perfectly correlated top line can do some damage with the man advantage. Svechnikov is a volume shooter so he’s fine to use as a one-off in any format, and can be used as part of a line stack as well.
Dustin Brown (LAK at WPG): DraftKings – $4,000; FanDuel – $4,500
The trade of Tyler Toffoli has opened up the top-line right-wing spot again, and though we don’t have confirmation right now, the assumption is that Brown will go back to the top line to play with Anze Kopitar and Alex Iafallo.
I get it. Dustin Brown isn’t very good anymore. He’s probably playing to a replacement-level player right now. All the same, playing with Kopitar and Iafallo means a big ice time boost, and that line has at least been near average offensively by goal output this year.
The reason why it’s important to point out that Brown should be back on the top line for this game is that they’re facing Winnipeg. The Jets changed up their lines last game but eventually went back to their usual top line of Connor-Scheifele-Laine. That top line is horrific defensively, posting 3.1 expected goals against and 3.3 actual goals against per 60 minutes at five-on-five. Brown is cheap exposure to a top line in a great matchup. It’s understandable for people to be hesitant to use him because it’s true he’s not very good anymore, it’s just about lineup slotting and matchup, nothing more.
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Defensemen
Marcus Pettersson (PIT vs. TOR): DraftKings – $2,700; FanDuel – $3,800
Marcus Pettersson is quietly a good defenseman. He’s likely only a bit above average in offensive/defensive impacts, but he’s also just 23 years old and happens to play for a current Stanley Cup contender.
The ice time jump his last handful of games has been real. Penguins defenseman John Marino was injured on Feb. 6, and since (and including) that game, Pettersson’s time on ice per game has gone from 19:23 to 21:51 a night. That is a significant jump in ice time.
That ice time jump is important for a guy priced where he is. Finding a defenseman who can play 21-22 minutes for near-min price is uncommon; most guys in that price range are under, or well below, 20 minutes a night, and fewer of them have even average offensive impacts. He’s a target for salary savings.
Rasmus Ristolainen (BUF at OTT): DraftKings – $4,800; FanDuel – $4,400
The reason for Ristolainen’s inclusion on these pages is two-fold. First, he’s part of the top power play unit for Buffalo, and going into Ottawa means facing a team that is tied for the fifth-most penalized team in the NHL.
The second reason is that FanDuel has priced Ristolainen a fair bit lower than he is on DraftKings. Now, they’re both relatively in the same range when compared to across all defensemen, but I just thought it was worth pointing out the pricing discrepancy. When considering the two Buffalo PP defensemen tonight, they’re the same price on DraftKings but Ristolainen is $1,400 cheaper on FanDuel.
Stacks
Ottawa Top Line of Tkachuk-Pageau-Duclair
The top line numbers in Ottawa are still a small sample (about 80 minutes) but their numbers are extremely good: over 4.2 expected goals, nearly 3.0 actual goals and over 65 shot attempts generated per 60 minutes at five-on-five. When breaking down the top line into pairs – there has been a lot of movement among the lines this year – all the offensive numbers hold up. They’ll face a Buffalo top line that is below average defensively. It’s a good spot for the new Ottawa top trio.
St. Louis Second Line of Schenn-Schwartz-Pietrangelo
The reason for leaving Alex Steen off the line is I’m not convinced he’s a lasting change. Maybe it is, but there have been a couple changes over their last handful of games, so it’s not certain he lasts all 60 minutes on the top line. It’s just too good of a matchup against New Jersey’s second line to overlook, and the addition of Pietrangelo is for more top power play exposure.
(NOTE:Â as mentioned in the section on Schenn, there are new St. Louis lines. Just three-man stacking the top line is fine for tonight.)
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