NHL Line Changes and Team Scoring Chances – February 20th (FREE)

For more analysis on the slate, check out Jake Hari’s Projections page as well as Awesemo’s NHL Player and Stack Rankings. And you can subscribe to the Awesemo.com YouTube Channel to get notifications when “Hit The Ice” (4ET Weekdays) goes live!

We’ve got Jake Hari’s Spotlight Stacks, and Jeff Votts’ Power Plays.

And you can follow me on Twitter, @Nolan__Kelly

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First off, big thanks to all you NBAers who stepped up and gave us some amazing NHL contests these past few days. We’ve had some crazy nights recently, with a chalk-filled 8-7 game stack winning the day two nights ago, and a rando night of injuries, late swaps and chalk-busts yesterday.

If you found a new love for NHL DFS, welcome aboard, if not, we’ll see you all, same time, next year.

Don’t forget to catch Jake Hari and I at 2:30 PST, 5:30 EST as we break down tonight’s slate on the Awesemo YouTube channel.

The BIG news

  • Matthew Tkachuk has been moved up to struggling CGY1, Eliias Lindholm moves down to CGY2. That line has full PP1 correlation.
  • Gustav Nyquist returns after missing last game. He won’t take his usual spot on DET1 though and instead will skate on DET2 with Nielsen and Vanek. Only Vanek is on the PP1 on that line. Darren Helm moves down to DET3 with Glendening and Athanasiou
  • Filip Hronek has been moved on to the DET PP1, in place of Niklas Kronwall.
  • Colorado has split up the big three again. New lines: Kerfoot-Mackinnon-Andrighetto, Nieto-Soderberg-Rantanen, Landeskog-Jost-Calvert.
  • Colorado stuck with the split PP last game, with MacKinnon on the second unit. COL PP1: 58% share, COL PP2: 48% share.
  • Dustin Byfuglien is DTD for the Jets and won’t suit up tonight. Jacob Trouba was on the PP1 last game.

Advice:

  • Tkachuk is cheap, along with the rest of that top-line. They’re going through some expected regression right now, and this isn’t a great bounce back spot, but CGY is still one of the best options on the night.
  • Hronek is probably the best value D play tonight. He has 23 points in 28 games in the AHL this season.
  • The Colorado split weakens all the lines tonight.
  • All the DET1 tonight. We could have another 8-7 game on our hands tonight. Again, the cahones moves is a Chicago fade, but man that’s scary.
  • On DK, Trouba is priced up to the point that he’s not a bargain. A fine play, but not cheap.

The little news

  • Brent Seabrook will miss tonight’s game for the Blackhawks. Forsling will continue to take his spot on the PP2.
  • TJ Brodie returns to the Flames tonight in his usual spot on the top pairing. Rasmus Andersson returns to the third pairing.
  • Colin Miller may be a healthy scratch tonight for Vegas. Nick Holden, who is on the DL, may return. No word yet on who would replace him on the PP2.
  • James Neal will miss another one tonight for the Flames
  • Peter Cehlarik will miss another one for the Bruins.

Advice:

  • Forsling is another solid value play tonight.

Recent 5v5 high ice-time

DET1: 28%

CHI1: 32%

WPG3: 27%

CGY4: 21%

NYI4: 20%

BOS3, formerly 4 (Acciari line): 30%

Recent 5v5 low ice-time

VGS2: 12%. Brandon Pirri was take off VGS2 last game and replaced with Pacioretty. Pirri was back with the top unit this morning though.

PP notes:

NYI PP1 and 2 have an even split over their past three games.

Team stats, past 10 games:

High Danger Chances Against, all strengths:

31st) Chicago Blackhawks: 159 (31st scoring chances against)

23rd) Detroit Red Wings: 123 (17th in scoring chances against)

22nd) Calgary Flames: 122 (24th in scoring chances against)

20th) Winnipeg Jets: 120 (21st in scoring chances against)

14th) Vegas Golden Knights (20th in scoring chances against)

12th) Boston Bruins (11th in scoring chances against)

9th) Colorado Avalanche (16th in scoring chances against)

7th) New York Islanders (8th in scoring chances against)

High Danger Chances For, all strengths:

1st) Vegas Golden Knights: 151 (5th in scoring chances for)

3rd) Calgary Flames: 137 (3rd in scoring chances for)

11th) Detroit Red Wings: 120 (9th in scoring chances for)

11th) Chicago Blackhawks: 120 (10th in scoring chances for)

14th) Colorado Avalanche: 115 (17th in scoring chances for)

15th) New York Islanders: 114 (13th in scoring chances for)

20th) Boston Bruins: 110 (28th in scoring chances for)

28th) Winnipeg Jets: 93 (27th in scoring chances for)

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