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The BIG news
- TJ Oshie is expected to return tonight for the Caps. He skated on a line with Backstrom and Ovie this morning, but is still listed on the DL on both sites. Tom Wilson is still out.
- Jaden Schwartz returns for the Blues and will pair up with Perron and Schenn on a cheap STL2 stack. Alex Steen is on the top line. Sanford is out. Third liners Bozak and Maroon are on the PP1. Sanford is scratched.
- FLA1 has a new winger. Mike Hoffman has been moved down to FLA2 with Brouwer and McCann. Dadonov moves up to FLA1 1 with Huberdeau and Barkov. They lined up like this last game as well.
- MIN1 has been reunited after getting separated last game with the absence of Mikko Koivu. Staal centres Granlund and Zucker, Coyle moves up to centre Niederreiter and Parise.
- Bonino and Tolvanen switch spots on NSH2 and NSH3. It’s Tolvanen-Jarnkrok-Smith, Sissons-Bonino-Watson.
- With Zach Hyman suspended, Connor Brown moves up to TOR1.
Advice:
- STL2 is a great, cheap option for a stack tonight to pair with one of the big lines.
- MIN1 is sneaky with Niemi in net, at home and a 3.4 total. I expect the sharps to be on them.
- NSH lines are cheap and have a high implied total, but they’ll be popular.
- Everyone knows Oshie is going to play, so I doubt his DL status lowers ownership too much,
The little news
- New lines for the Yotes. Galchenyuk moves down to ARI2 with Stepan and Fischer. Lawson Crouse moves up to ARI1 with Keller and Schmaltz. Though Galchenyuk has a minor injury and will be a GTD.
- Artem Anisimov will be out for the Blackhawks. Kampf and Kahun are skating with Kane on CHI2. John Hayden is up on CHI1.
- Koivu is likely out again for the Minnesota Wild.
- Jake DeBrusk is likely out again for the Bruins.
- Both Rasmus’s are on the BUF PP1. Thompson is off.
- Michael Ferland is back for the Canes, but won’t be in his usual spot on the top like. He’s on CAR3 with Bishop and McGinn.
- Daily Faceoff has WPG3 wrong. Mathieu Perreault will be in his usual spot with Lowry and Tanev
Advice
- Meh on all fronts — though I like WPG3 as a contrarian play tonight, with a cheap price and a high team total.
High recent 5v5
BOS1: 34%
LAK1: 27%
COL1: 28%
Low recent 5v5
NSH1: 15%, NSH2: 13$
Negative regression candidates
Elias Pettersson’s 29 SH% isn’t sustainable.
Jeff Skinner’s SH% is 10 points above his career average.
Alex Chaisson will likely see a dropoff from his 32% clip shortly.
Auston Matthews is shooting 29%, roughly twice his career average.
Positive regression candidates
Blake Wheeler is shooting just 6% this year, roughly half his career average.
[table id=1061 /]
