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NHL Line Changes, line scoring chances – February 9th (FREE)

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For more analysis on the slate, check out Jake Hari’s Projections page as well as Awesemo’s NHL Player and Stack Rankings. And you can subscribe to the Awesemo.com YouTube Channel to get notifications when “Hit The Ice” (4ET Weekdays) goes live!

We’ve got Jake Hari’s Spotlight Stacks, and don’t forget to check out Chris Wassel’s Power Plays and his Pick Three article.

As well, Jake Hari has a new Cheatsheets article out for Premium members, featuring some of his top owned plays in each price range.

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Just a reminder that Saturdays are always a little weird to predict. Double check those pre-game line rushes if you’re around your lineups a half hour before game time.

The news:

  • Stamkos and Kucherov have been reunited for tonight’s game, skating alongside Ondrej Palat. Point centres Johnson and Gourde. TB1 has full PP correlation.
  • Nick Bjugstad is off PIT1, replaced by Bryan Rust. He centres PIT2 with Pearson and Kessel. Malkin is still out.
  • Derick Brassard is up on FLA1 with Barkov and Dadonov. Vatrano moves down to FLA2 and Sheahan centres Sceviour and Hoffman on FLA3.
  • Karlsson-Smith-Marchessault were reunited last game and it looks like they’ll stick together tonight. Zykov is down on VGS3 with Eakin and Lindberg.
  • Andrew Shaw returns from IR tonight and will replace Matthew Peca on MTL2. Peca is out.

Advice:

  • TB1 gets rare full PP correlation tonight.
  • Florida has been kinda meh lately and these changes weaken the top line a bit, but matchups don’t get any better than at Washington, who are allowing the most scoring chances against in the NHL over their last 10 games.
  • VGS1 is way too cheap. They’re an excellent value play tonight. Vegas on the whole due for some positive regression. They rank first in the NHL in HDCF over the past 10 games, but 25th in HDGF.

The little news

  • Anton Stralman is out for the Lightning tonight. Cernak and Sergachev are in.
  • Matt Benning is out for the Oilers tonight. Kevin Gravel draws in.
  • Colby Cave is out for EDM, Kyle Brodziak in. Try not to get too excited.

High recent 5v5 ice-time

SJS2: 31%

EDM1: 33%

TB3: 29%

VGS2: 30%

Low recent 5v5 ice-time

TOR3: 16%

No Vancouver line above 12%

PP notes:

MTL PP1/2 is a 50/50 split

Last 10 games, chances for stats P/60 (Best lines bolded):

CGY1: 20 SCF, 8.2 HDCF

CGY2: 28 SCF, 13.4 HDCF

TB1: 42 SCF, 16.31 HDCF

PIT1: 41.2 SCF, 17.8 HDCF

WAS1: 36.17 SCF, 14.47 HDCF

WAS2: 26.9 SCF, 9.96 HDCF

SJS1: 31.28 SCF, 15.1 HDCF

SJS2: 29.82 SCF, 10.14 HDCF

SJS3: 16.6 SCF, 10.26 HDCF

EDM1 (full season): 26.3 SCF, 8.11 HDCF

FLA2 (full season): 32 SCF, 8.28 HDCF

CBJ1: 33.46 SCF, 14.26 HDCF

CBJ2 full season): 25 SCF, 10 HDCF

CBJ3 (full season: 27 SCF, 14.73 HDCF

VGS1 (15 games): 37 SCF, 14.71 HDCF

VGS2: 37 SCF, 18.93 HDCF

TOR3: 49.7 DCF, 7.27 HDCF

TOR2: 34 SCF, 7 HDCF

TOR1: 38 SCF, 12 HDCF

MTL1: 26 SCF, 11.79 HDCF

MTL2 no Andrew Shaw: 33 SCF, 15 HDCF

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