Ryan O’Reilly & NHL DFS Picks: It’s just a small four-game slate for DraftKings and FanDuel on this Monday evening but there are a lot of excellent teams skating and there may be some big lineup changes. What is most notable is that the Philadelphia Flyers called up Mikhail Vorobyev and Joel Farabee, the latter being arguably their most coveted prospect. This will change Philadelphia’s lineup so be sure to check in with our premium Slack chat for updated information.
There are two pretty obvious spots here tonight in Toronto and Dallas so we’re going to try to avoid just naming a bunch of players from those two games.
For more analysis on the slate, check out Nolan Kelly’s Line Change article before lock, as well as Awesemo’s NHL Projections and Rankings. You can also subscribe to the Awesemo.com YouTube Channel to get notifications when “Hit The Ice” (4ET Weekdays) goes live!
NHL DFS Picks
Center
Sean Couturier
DraftKings – $5800
FanDuel – $7000
By pricing alone, Couturier is a much better play on DraftKings than he is on FanDuel. When factoring in the matchup, it’s really hard to pay that much for him on FanDuel in cash games.
There are a lot of reasons to believe that the Flyers are simply a bit unlucky right now. For starters, they’re shooting five percent as a team at five on five, nearly a full percent lower than the next-worst team (NYI at 5.98 percent). That extends to Couturier, who is shooting four percent lower (9.5 percent) than his three-year average (13.7 percent). His ice time has declined significantly from last year but he’s still over 19:30 per game, which is still a very high level.
This is a good Flyers team that is snakebit at the moment, and their star center along with them. I will be betting on them to get on the right track tonight.
Boone Jenner
DraftKings – $3500
FanDuel – $4100
There’s no doubt that going into Toronto is a good matchup offensively for Columbus: the Leafs are allowing the ninth-most shot attempts per 60 minutes at five-on-five and are mid-pack on shots allowed while short-handed. They are also missing John Tavares, the guy often used to shut down opposing top lines. Not that Jenner is a top-line player, but the Tavares injury pushes everyone up in the pecking order, allowing for even better matchups for Columbus.
Among Jackets forwards this year, Jenner is second by individual shot attempts per 60 minutes. It’s nothing new for Jenner, who has long been a good shot volume guy, but that he’s still putting up volume and facing a team that allows a lot of volume is a good matchup for him.
We need to be honest about Jenner: he’s not a great goal scorer despite his shot volume. But he should get a lot of shooting opportunities against the depth of the Leafs and that makes him an appealing, cheap one-off target in tournaments.
Winger
Joe Pavelski
DraftKings – $4100
FanDuel – $5900
Pavelski is wildly over-priced on FanDuel when considering his performance so far this season. Just be aware of that.
Every year, I try to rely on preseason projections until about Halloween, and then look to start incorporating year-to-date stats. We’re only about 10 percent of the way through the year, not enough for a reliable sample. All the same, let’s be clear: the Stars have looked terrible and played terribly this year, Pavelski along with them. Whether they turn it around, we’ll see.
The two reasons for recommending Pavelski here are matchup and price. With Ottawa in town, the Stars get one of, if not the, best possible home matchup as the Sens are last or near-last in every major defensive metric. Pavelski is still on the top power-play unit too, for what that’s worth. For those looking to fade the Stars’ big guns in tournaments, this is the one-off to use, even if he starts on the third line.
James van Riemsdyk
DraftKings – $5000
FanDuel – $5700
When discussing the Flyers being snake-bit, the list really does have to start with James van Riemsdyk. He is, quite literally, averaging over five shots on goal per game this season. Not shot attempts, shots on goal. That is an insane pace that obviously won’t keep up, but it shows how high his volume is. The kicker here is that he has zero goals on the year. If he had been shooting his three-year average (14.1 percent), he’d have four or five goals by now. Instead, he has zero. That’s the only reason he’s priced where he is on either site.
Vegas had a very good penalty kill last year but there were areas–according to shot maps from Hockey Viz–that could be exploited. They are the tops of the circles, the right face-off dot, and right around the crease. van Riemsdyk makes a living on the power play around the crease and that’s why he’s a target here tonight.
In general, the matchup with Vegas isn’t a good one but there are only four games on this slate and it’s pretty easy to see where the ownership will go. People who want to avoid the tough matchup with Vegas but still want a piece of the Flyers would do well to roster van Riemsdyk. The time to roster him is before the floodgates open, not after.
Defense
Sam Girard
DraftKings – $3600
FanDuel – $4200
There was a change to the Colorado power play over the weekend, and the change saw Girard take over the top PP duties from rookie Cale Makar. The power play itself hasn’t been that bad, but the change has been made and that’s huge for fantasy purposes because Colorado led the NHL last year in PP opportunities and are averaging nearly four power plays per game this year. That’s a lot of opportunities for Girard to rack up points skating with elite players.
Girard may not be a household name but he’s one fantasy players should get to know. According to tracking data, here are Girard’s ranks in different offensive metrics over the previous two seasons: 98th percentile for shot assists (passes that lead to shots), 93rd percentile for zone entry possession (gaining the offensive blue line with possession of the puck, which doubles shot generation when compared to dumping it in), and 98th percentile for zone exit percentage. In other words, he’s great in transition but hasn’t broken out offensively yet. This is a good opportunity for Girard to show the hockey world what he can do.
Jake Muzzin
DraftKings – $3900
FanDuel – $4300
Some people scratching their heads at Leafs defenseman Cody Ceci being used in a shutdown role, present company included. What people may not be paying attention to is that it’s Muzzin, and not Rielly, or Barrie, or Ceci, who leads the Leafs blue line in ice time at five on five per game. In fact, Muzzin has seen his ice time steadily increase through the early portions of this season from just under 23 minutes through the first four games to over 24 minutes over his last five.
It’s not often a defenseman playing over 24 minutes a night for an elite offensive team is priced under $4000 on DraftKings. Yes, the Leafs are missing John Tavares, but there is still more than enough scoring here to make up the difference. For those not wanting to pay up on the blue line for cash games, Muzzin should be a target.
NHL DFS Stacks to Target for DraftKings and FanDuel
St. Louis Second Line of Robby Fabbri – Ryan O’Reilly – David Perron
This will depend on the morning skate for St. Louis because Fabbri joining O’Reilly-Perron was a lineup change late in their game on Saturday. Whether he stays there is uncertain, but if he does, it’s exciting for fantasy purposes.
Fabbri has taken years to get back to the NHL after suffering some serious injuries and spending time in the AHL. He’s still just 23 years old but this is his fifth pro season and fourth season in the NHL. He’s a first round pick from 2014 and earlier in his NHL career, performed similarly offensively to Jaden Schwartz, and superior to again-teammate Perron. It’s been a long slog, but he may be back on the second line again, and with two players who can help him make the most of his wealth of offensive talent. They’re a cheap line who can help fit in the more expensive targets tonight.
Philadelphia Top Line of Claude Giroux – Sean Couturier – Travis Konecny
Again, we’re going to have to see what morning skate gives us. As mentioned earlier, the Flyers have some callups coming so it’s not a guarantee the top line stays together.
Since the start of last year, this trio has skated over 330 minutes together at five on five. In those minutes, the Flyers have generated over 75 shot attempts per 60 minutes, which is an absolutely monster number. For reference, the Islanders generated over 79 shot attempts per 60 minutes last year while on five-on-four power plays. When this top line is on the ice at five on five, the Flyers are effectively generating shots at a rate commensurate with a bad power play. That the team is running cold to start the year is keeping their price depressed. Even in a tough matchup, this line warrants serious consideration on a short slate.
