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*** FINAL WEEK OF 24 DAYS OF CHRISTMAS***
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*****24 DAYS*****
If you missed it, I’m starting a new column analyzing various DFS pros and how they succeed. The first one was published this morning, taking a closer look at Testosterown’s 150 NHL lineups last night – both construction and ownership. Have a look if you get a sec!
NHL Power Plays:
Forwards:
- Dennis Gurianov will get a shot with Seguin and Benn tonight for the Stars. He makes that line more viable, priced near the bare min on both sites. However, Benn might be off the PP1, so stack carefully.
- Bo Horvat is super cheap and has a triple A grade from Awesemo. His linemates aren’t great – with Eriksson and Roussel up top, but if you need a solo play, with his ice-time, he’s got a decent floor.
- I like LAK1 (see below) as a contrarian GPP play tonight, but LA2 with Carter and Toffoli back together is also an intriguing play. Toffoli always generates loads of shots and they’re both priced under $4k on DraftKings.
- Wayne Simmonds (B,B,B) gets a bump off the third line to play with Sean Couturier and Jakub Voracek on the Flyers second line. He’s also on the PP1. Downgrade JVR, who moves down to PHI3. I always like Simmonds as a solo play, if you’re going that route – he just seems to score multiple goals out of nowhere.
- All of TOR3 is too cheap tonight. All have A or B grades from Awesemo. Toronto shuffled in the third period last game, but generally they’ve been seeing a 20% 5v5 clip together.
Defence:
- Neal Pionk (C,B,C) is insanely cheap tonight, at just $4000 on DraftKings and $4500 on FanDuel. He’ll get 22+ minutes and PP1 time against the Ducks who are on back-to-backs and may be starting Chad Johnson instead of John Gibson.
- Darnell Nurse still hasn’t been bumped up on FanDuel. Lock. Him. In.
- Colton Parayko (B,B,A) has finally been promoted to the STL PP1. He’s gotten up to 28 minutes at times, in the absence of Pieterangelo.
- I’ve noticed a lot of pros using Erik Gustafsson (B,A.A) recently – and that was without him on the PP1. He’s super cheap on both sites and makes for a great plug and play option if you need a low priced defencemen. Fustafsson has the 15h most HDCF in the NHL this season at even strength.
- Alex Edler will be >5% owned in most tournaments. A 25 min a game, PP1 defencemen who’s probably going to block a lot of shots seems reasonable at just $4700 on DK and $4500 on FD. He’s got a solid floor in cash.
- Dennis Cholowski gets to QB the top PP unit in Detroit against one of the worst PK units in the league. He’s cheap too, at under $4500 on both sites.
- Matt Dumba is out for the Wild, so bump up Jaren Spurgeon, who’ll see more ice time and PP1 time.
Goalie options
Carter Hutton: Grade B, Values: B, A
- Another slate, another bunch of not great goalie options. Anytime we get a slate like this I just mix and match and try to correlate as much as possible. Hutton is probably my favorite play of the night, with the Panthers generating a slate high 35.4 shots per game and the Sabres allowing the fifth most shots in the NHL. The Sabres are slight favorites
Chalk
- My guess is that Carter Hart on the Flyers and Alex Georgiev will be two of the chalkier goalies on the slate, especially at their price. In a vaccum they’re both strong plays, correlated with either one of the top two lines from each team (who are great values). The Ducks don’t generate a lot of shots, but the Rangers do allow the fifth most in the league, so Georgiev should see decent volume. Finally, the Ducks are implied for the lowest total on the slate at just 2.6 goals.
Contrarian option:
I like a stack of LAK1 and Jonathan Quick in GPPs. It’s obviously a tough matchup, but that’s why it’ll be low owned. Quick is one of the cheapest goalies on the night, he gets the Jets on the road, who are travelling to the West Coast and LAK1 is an amazing value, getting tonnes of 5v5 ice time together at a cheap price. They are the lowest price B grade in Awesemo’s rankings tonight.
