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Forward
Auston Matthews
Matthews rates out really well in Jake Hari’s model tonight as the number one overall projected player. Toronto’s second line has been generating 16 HDCF this season together, and Matthews should avoid a matchup against Alexander Barkov, for the most part. The Panthers lines are a jumble and we don’t know what to expect tonight, but both Trocheck and Borsgstrom are allowing around 25 SCF P/60 and 12 HDCA P/60 to opposing teams this season. Matthews is also back on the Leafs PP1.
Cheap options
- Another day, another mis-priced Florida Panther. We won’t have quite the debate this time around, with Vincent Trocheck, who’s the bare min on both sites. He’ll get PP2 time and will skate on a cheap, probably chalky FLA2 with Huberdeau and Bjugstad if he goes.
- Moving down a spot, if you want to pivot off the Trocheck chalk, FLA3 is also reasonably priced. Henrik Borgstrom is an up-and-comer, flanked by sniper Mike Hoffman and another cheap winger in Denis Malgin.
- Andrei Svenchnikov has cooled of late, but he returns to a line with Jordan Martinook and Lucas Wallmark tonight – a line that has averaged 21.35 HDCF P/60 in 220 minutes together this season. He’s cheap and both he and Wallmark are on the PP2. The Senators top-two lines average 13 HDCA P/60 and it’s possibly that Guy Boucher tries to match OTT3 against CAR1 whenever he can get that matchup. OTT3 allowed zero HDCA to COL1 at home last time out. Wallmark has the 4th most HDCF in the NHL this season.
Defence
Mark Giordano:
All the Giordano tonight. All of it. Giordano get a plus matchup against the Red Wings, at home, where he’ll likely see another 22-27 minutes and his usual share of PP1 time. The Red Wings have given up the 4th most HDCA on the PP when on the road this season, and have the 22nd worst PK in the NHL, overall. There are other high priced defencemen in decent spots tonight, but Giordano has the highest floor. Feel free to stack him up with the CGY PP1, but if you do, differentiate elsewhere, because that’s going to be a popular move tonight. Giordano has the third highest projection on the slate in Jake Hari’s model.
Cheap options
- Ben Hutton has jettisoned dead-weight D-partner Erik Gudbranson recently (league worst -233… or maybe it just feels that way. Without him, Hutton will be deployed in a more offensive capacity. His splits are much better, too. Without Gudbranson: 12.11 HDCF, 29 SCF P/60, without: 8.7 HDCF, 20.48 SCF/60. His D partner Troy Stetcher is also viable, near the bare min.
- Dimitri Orlov is priced down, near the bare min on both sites. He’s usually more expensive than that. If I need a guy in that range, I’ll take the player with PP2 time and 20 minutes a game. He has a 2-11-13 line in 46 games this year.
- Despite the return of Mike Green and Danny DeKeyser, Dennis Cholowski is on the DET PP1. He doesn’t get a lot of minutes, but at $3100 on DK and $3700 on FD, the offensive upside is there if you need cheap flier.
- He’s not cheap, butprice is down to $4800 on DK. That’s a bargain for a guy getting 23 minutes a game and PP1 time.
Goaltender
Unfortunately, most of the goalies in great spots tonight are also facing teams in the bottom third in shots for per game. That limits their upside. As such, I’d suggest just correlating your goalie with one of your stacks tonight, banking on the win points, because the save points discrepancy is likely to be less of a decider than it usually is. Either that, or go contrarian with low-owned goalie who might face a barrage (see below).
Cheap FanDuel goalie:
Thatcher Demko makes his season debut for the Canucks tonight. Demko is one of the better goalie prospects out there, though he’s struggled a bit with injuries this year. Still a .922 sv% in the AHL last season is evidence of his pedigree and the Sabres have a 2.8 implied total tonight. He’s only $7100 on FD, but is too pricey on DK.
Contrarian:
Anders Nilsson gets the dream matchup against the Hurricanes and their league leading shots for per game tonight in Carolina. Though the Hurricanes are implied for a slate high four goal total, Nilsson makes a great pivot play in GPPs because he’s not going to be owned, and the guy is capable of standing on his head from time to time. If you’re heaving on Carolina tonight, make sure to get a couple Nilsson stacks with OTT1 or OTT2 just to hedge your bets.
