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NHL Power Plays – November 13th

Nolan Kelly

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As always, we have Jake Hari’s projections and line stacks for tonight’s action, and my Lineup Changes article will get you up to date on everything you need to know ahead of the 4pm EST lock.

Below, I’ve selected a few of the best plays from Awesemo’s player projections article (premium members only).

The Plays

Forward

Leon Draisaitl: Grade: A, DK Value: A, FD value: B

Draisaitl skates alongside Connor McDavid tonight on the Oilers top line and top powerplay unit. The Oilers have a respectable implied total of 3.1 goals, at home against a Montreal team that has given up over four goals a game in their last seven contests. I’d advise taking an overweight position on EDM1 tonight, even though they’ll likely be 20%+ owned. Draisaitl has been playing with plugs for most of the season, but he’s still 3rd on the team in Individual High Chances For (iHDCF). Stack him up with McDavid and Klefbom.

Contrarian options: The Sharks have a 3.0 implied total tonight, but DFSers might be turned off by the Nashville Predators RED 1st and 2nd fantasy points allowed column on DraftKings. Evander Kane (B,C,C) is on SJS1 and has a decent floor with his high shot totals. If you’re around for the late switch, keep an eye on the SJS line rushes and Logan Couture’s status. There might be some unique forward stacks available. The Sharks are averaging the second most High Danger Chances For, but are converting at 44% clip — good enough for 27th in the league. Positive regression is coming.

Defence:

Ryan Pulock: Grade: A, DK Value: A, FD Value: A

Pulock is the best value defenceman on the slate at just $4100 on FD and $4200 on DK. He finally gets his chance to quarterback the PP1 tonight, in place of Mathew Barzal. Pulock leads the Islanders this season in TOI (eighth in the NHL!) and is second on the team in Individual Chances For. His price is about $1500 too cheap on both sites. With the Islanders high implied total and the opportunity here, I’d get him into as many of your lineups as possible tonight.

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Super cheap options: Pulock’s D-partner Nick Leddy (C,A,A) is also on the PP1 and is less than $4000 on both sites. Mike Reilly is just $3000 on DK, averging 21 mins a game with PP1 time for the Habs.

Goaltenders

Jimmy Howard: Grade: A, DK Value: A, FD Value: A

Detroit is a slight home-dog to the Coyotes, but the visitors have a low implied total and are averaging a surprising 33 shots per game this season, which is good enough for eighth in the NHL. Combine that with Detroit’s propensity for giving up shots (35.8 per game, 29th in the NHL) and Arizona’s inability to convert on high dangers chances (worst in the NHL) and you’ve got a nice bargain option with a lot of upside tonight.

Contrarian goalies

Two immediately pop out: Devan Dubnyk gets a start at home against the Capitals and Phoenix Copley. The Wild are -140 favorites and the Caps are only implied for 2.8 goals. Not many DFSers like to take goaltenders against the Capitals. As well, Martin Jones gets the Arvidsson-less Predators on back-to-backs with a slate-low 2.5 implied total.

I've been obsessed with fantasy sports since as long as I can remember. Back in 1993, while seated in the last row of Mr. MacMillan's math class, I'm fairly certain a few buddies of mine and I invented daily fantasy sports -- popping down our fivers and using nothing more than a newspaper box score, we'd make our NHL player picks for the night's action. Twenty years later I started out playing DFS on DraftStreet, when three-max tourneys with 490 people were a big deal, and I've been hooked ever since. More than anything, I'm interested in using my technical writing skills to articulate and clarify our content in order to help you become a better fantasy sports players player. Armed with Awesemo's grades and the projections from our experts, we're here to help you take the next step. You can contact me by emailing [email protected].

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