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For line stack info, check out Jake Hari’s article.
As well, I’ve got everything you need to know about tonight’s action in my News and Notes article.
Forwards
Tyler Bertuzzi, Detroit Red Wings (first line) Grade: D, DK value: E, FanDuel value: E
Awesemo isn’t loving this one, but there is some upside here at a cheap price if you need to squeeze a low-priced player who might pop you a goal. Generally, an uninspiring play, Bertuzzi averages around 14 minutes of ice time and one shot per game, but he’s been moved up to the top line to play with Dylan Larkin and that should give him bit of an offensive boost. At $3500 on DK, and $3700 on FanDuel he’ll fit nicely in your expensive COL1 stacks.
Nikolaj Ehlers, Winnipeg Jets (first line). Grade: B, DK value: B, FanDuel value: C
Not sure if DraftKings got ahead of that line switch in Winnipeg, or if it was his first decent performance, but he got a price bump from his last game. Still, $5400 is a bargain for a guy who gets to play 20 minutes with Wheeler and Scheifele tonight. The back-to-back 25 goal scorer is also primed for positive regression (see below).
Defence:
Mike Green, Detroit Red Wings (PP1): Grade: C, DK value: B, FanDuel value: C
Anyone who plays DFS knows the secret to success these days is roster as many Red Wings as possible. The former best offensive defenceman in the league (hop in that way-back machine) makes his season debut tonight against the Jets. He’ll probably see 18+ minutes and some time on the PP1. Any time you can get a PP1 defenceman for just $3700 on DraftKings and, that’s a value play. He’s $4600 on FanDuel, which isn’t bad either.
Shea Theodore, Vegas Golden Knights (PP1): Grade: B, Value A
Probably the best, low-priced option for defencemen tonight, but he’s only available on DraftKings, as FanDuel chose to start their slate at the regular time for GPPs. Theodore gets a bump because he’s taking over the PP1 duties from Brad Hunt. He’ll see his usual 20+ minutes a game. My favorite bargain play of the night.
Goalies:
Contrarian stack-counter Craig Anderson is a strong large GPP play at just $6900 on DK ($7800 is insane on FanDuel… less than Grubauer (A,A,A), who is a -210 favorite. A strong performance and an unexpected win can eliminate a huge chunk of your competition tonight.
On FanDuel, I’d opt to plug in Grubauer and differentiate my lineups elsewhere. A huge chunk of Grubauer lineups will also have COL1 in them, so keep that in mind.
Aaron Dell (B,A,A) is an intriguing option on the road against a Hurricanes team averaging 42 shots per game this season.
Regression to the mean
At this point in the season, we’re starting to get enough of a sample size to figure out which players have been lucky and unlucky.
Positive regression candidates:
The Jets have a tonne of players primed for positive regression, and make for a nice mini-pivot off the chalky COL1 tonight.
Patrick Laine: 71 Individual Corsi For, 11 individual high danger chances (iHDCF), 40 shots, three goals.
Blake Wheeler: 39 shots, 2 goals.
Nikolaj Ehlers: 25 shots, 1 goal.
Gustav Nyquist: 21 shots, 1 goal (10 iHDCF)
Anthony Mantha: 20 shots, 1 goal (12 iHDCF)
Steve Stamkos: 25 shots, 1 goal
Dougie Hamilton: 27 shots, 0 goals, (17 iHDCF !!!!)
Negative regression
COL1: It might not come tonight, but their pace isn’t sustainable. They have 20 goals on 97 shots.
