NHL DFS Picks, Projections & Top Stacks for DraftKings & FanDuel

Thursday brings a nine-game slate with plenty of big-name players on the ice tonight. As always, the Power Plays article is designed to spotlight some of the best NHL DFS picks for DraftKings and FanDuel daily fantasy hockey lineups based on the Awesemo expert fantasy point projections and Top Stacks Tool. Let’s see who the tools and data are pointing to as the best plays for tonight’s slate.

This column uses some of Awesemo’s tools like top stacks, ownership and projections to help make these picks. As always, be sure to check the Premium Slack chat for updates throughout the day.

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DraftKings & FanDuel NHL DFS Picks | April 15

NHL DFS Picks: Center

Sebastian Aho (CAR vs. NSH)

DraftKings – $6,800

FanDuel – $7,500

The big concern with Aho is his shot rate. His last couple seasons averaged a smidge under three shots per game, and he sits at 2.6 this year. For that reason, at his price it’s a bit hard to use him in cash games.

In tournaments, though, Aho and his linemates have a lot of interest for us. The Hurricanes have been sending out the Jordan Staal line against the opponents’ top competition lately, and that is great news for Aho and company. With Nashville’s top line off the ice over the last month, the Predators have basically a 50% expected goal share. That is a great matchup for Aho and Andrei Svechnikov, a duo that has put up three expected goals per 60 minutes at five-on-five the last month, with an expected goal share over 63%.

John Tavares (TOR vs. WPG)

DraftKings – $6,300

FanDuel – $6,600

It took him a while, but Tavares is starting to cook, with 8 points in his last six games with nearly three shots per game. To outline how long it took him to get going: Through the team’s first 30 games, Tavares managed just 0.69 individual expected goals per 60 minutes at five-on-five. For reference on how bad that is, he was slightly ahead of Ilya Mikheyev (0.67), and that mark would have been the worst for his career.

But he has turned his season around, and over the last four weeks his expected goals have shot up to 1.21, leading the team, coming in the top five among all forwards. He leads all forwards in high-danger shot attempts per 60 minutes as well. There is a reason he has been on a tear for the last couple weeks.

Tavares probably gets the tougher matchup tonight, taking the second line, but this is back-to-back and third in four nights, all on the road. Though Tavares’ spot would be better with William Nylander on his line, with his scoring outburst, it’s clear he doesn’t need Nylander to produce. Among Awesemo’s center projections, Tavares comes in third for expected production despite being 10th by salary. That is good leverage.

*Note: Tavares skated on the top line at morning skate as Auston Matthews left the ice. This could be a big development, so keep an eye for updates.

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NHL DFS Picks: Winger

Jake Guentzel (PIT vs PHI)

DraftKings – $7,600

FanDuel – $7,700

Like Tavares, it may have taken some time for Guentzel to get going, but he had a hat trick his last time out and has 10 points in his last five games. Suffice it to say, he’s streaking right now.

Again, the matchup tonight is what leads to Guentzel. It has already been admitted that Sean Couturier is playing with a hip injury, and that is the matchup Guentzel gets tonight. Couturier’s line has been just throttled over the last month to the tune of 2.7 expected goals against per 60 minutes at five-on-five, a 38.1% expected goal share and a whopping 6.1 actual goals against per 60. In short, this is a phenomenal matchup for Guentzel, Sidney Crosby, and Bryan Rust.

Guentzel’s shot rate is down this year from prior seasons, and that is what would probably keep him out of reach for cash games. But he does have hat-trick upside, and he is in a fantastic spot. He should be in strong consideration as a tournament one-off.

Anthony Mantha (WSH vs. BUF)

DraftKings – $5,300

FanDuel – $4,800

Though Buffalo has been managing some wins since hiring a new coach, it is still near the bottom of the league by expected goals against per 60 at five-on-five and near the middle of the league in actual goals allowed. While that would tell us that the Sabres have goaltending to worry about, starter Linus Ullmark is injured. With Carter Hutton also injured and Jonas Johansson traded, it’s likely Dustin Tokarski, a 31-year-old with 40 career NHL games, will get the start. This is a great matchup for Washington, obviously.

Mantha impressed in his first game with his new team, posting a goal and an assist. While he was having a tough year in Detroit, over the last three seasons he has scored at a similar rate to guys like Jack Eichel and Evgeni Malkin while landing just shy of three shots per game. He is getting very good linemates in Nicklas Backstrom and T.J. Oshie, and he will get some secondary minutes. His price will likely keep climbing, so it’s good to get in on the ground floor in a great matchup, particularly with that price on FanDuel.

Rocco Grimaldi (NSH at CAR)

DraftKings – $2,700

FanDuel – $3,900

Carolina sends out Jordan Staal against top competition. Tonight that means Grimaldi, Johansen, and Viktor Arvidsson. While that has normally been a brutal matchup, the Staal line has been trading chances this year more than most. Specifically, the last month has seen them post 2.7 expected goals against per 60 minutes, considerably higher than league average. Stellar goaltending has helped, but the Hurricanes can’t rely on goaltending to constantly win this matchup.

With Grimaldi, he’s had similar shot rates to Nylander and Matthew Tkachuk over the last two seasons and he’s finally getting 15 minutes a night consistently on the top line. Even with their success of late, this line should draw low ownership as they’re on the road and facing a good team. It does appear Grimaldi may get some good offensive minutes here tonight, and he’s worthwhile at his price in any format.

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NHL DFS Picks: Defense

Miro Heiskanen (DAL vs. CBJ)

DraftKings – $5,400

FanDuel – $4,300

Dallas has had their injury troubles this year but Heiskanen has been very reliable for them. He had his own slow start to the year, but he now has six goals and 12 points in his last 25 games, averaging about 2.5 shots per game. In that span he has hit the block bonus four times, including twice in his last three games where he was held without points. A big reason for that is ice time, as he’s averaging 26:10 in those 25 games, having not played under 23 minutes in a game in nearly six weeks.

Columbus traded Nick Foligno, and both Boone Jenner and Zach Werenski are out for the year. This is a depleted team, and though Dallas has their own injuries, the Jackets are a bottom-five team by both expected goals against and actual goals against at five-on-five the last month. Heiskanen gets loads of ice time, is talented enough to create goals on his own and is in a plus matchup. He is in consideration in any format here tonight but is particularly attractive as a one-off in tournaments and on FanDuel.

Jacob Trouba (NYR vs. NJ)

DraftKings – $5,200

FanDuel – $4,300

Though Adam Fox gets the headlines for his play, and rightly so, Trouba has bene a very good DFS asset of late. He has played at least 20 minutes in every game for four weeks, and though he has just four assists in that span, he has 25 shots and 35 blocks. Just a couple games ago, he achieved the vaunted combo meal of the shot-block and shot-on-goal bonuses on the same night. He has hit the block bonus in more games than not in those four weeks.

Truth be told, Trouba’s shot-block value takes a back seat to the offensive value every player has in this matchup tonight. The Devils traded Kyle Palmieri and Travis Zajac, while Pavel Zacha is injured. That is three players out of their top nine, and they weren’t a deep team to begin with. Most of the Rangers roster is in play tonight, but Trouba makes a nice tweener play price-wise between Fox and K’Andre Miller.

Top Goalie

Connor Hellebuyck (WPG at TOR)

DraftKings – $7,300

FanDuel – $7,800

Over the last month, the Leafs have been a juggernaut, carrying over 60 percent of the expected goal share at five-on-five and over 62 percent of the actual goal share. That makes them a popular target tonight up and down their roster, as evidenced by Tavares’ inclusion here.

At the other side of the ice is Hellebuyck, arguably the top goaltender on the planet. At the age of 27, he already has one Vezina Trophy as the league’s top goalie, a top-three finish and is over 10 points above average by all-strengths save percentage. By goals saved above expected – how many he’s saved above his own team’s expected goals mark – he’s among the elite like John Gibson and Ben Bishop. To counter all that Leafs ownership tonight, rostering Hellebuyck makes sense for some leverage at his price. His ownership is nice too, as he’s outside the top half-dozen goalie options by Awesemo’s ownership projections.

Top Stacks

WSH2: Mantha – Backstrom – Oshie

This is a great matchup for Washington, but the addition of Mantha to that line gives Backstrom and Oshie a winger who score, is great at offensive play-driving and has wonderful defensive impacts. This line really should be a menace against the lowly Sabres, and though they don’t all play the same power play, two out of three ain’t bad.

By Awesemo’s top stacks tool, this line is one of the top 10 lines on the night to finish as a top-two line on this slate. That puts them firmly on the radar on a slate this big.

NYI3: Pageau – Wahlstrom – Palmieri

As far as filler lines go, this is one of my personal favorites. While the Bruins are getting healthy and added Taylor Hall, the Islanders’ third line should get the third line from Boston in a matchup. Both Jake DeBrusk and Charlie Coyle are having poor defensive seasons, the former more than the latter. While the Bruins are a good team, so are the Islanders, and this new depth scoring line has upside in the former 30-goal scorer in Palmieri and rookie star Oliver Wahlstrom.

*stats from Natural Stat Trick and Evolving Hockey

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Author

Michael Clifford

Michael has been writing about fantasy hockey for over a decade, and has been playing Daily Fantasy for just as long. He has contributed to both the Chicago Tribune and the Boston Herald, has worked for Rogers Sportsnet in Canada and is now in his fifth season with Stokastic. He lives in Fredericton, New Brunswick, Canada, and can be reached on Twitter @SlimCliffy.