The NHL’s alternating schedule of heavy days and light days continues with just a five-match slate for Friday night. And like many of these smaller slates, we once again get some mega chalk we have to navigate through with Connor McDavid going up against the Senators for the third time this week. It should be a great night, so let’s dive into the NHL DFS picks for the DraftKings and FanDuel slate for Friday, March 12.
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NHL DFS Picks: Top Stacks for DraftKings & FanDuel | March 12
NHL DFS Picks: Center
Chandler Stephenson – Vegas Golden Knights
FanDuel – $4,700
DraftKings – $4,200
Being put in position to succeed is often all a player needs to be successful, and Stephenson has been given every opportunity to do so in Vegas. Before this season, Stephenson had more appropriately been skating on the Knights third line with the likes of Alex Tuch and company. But now with Cody Glass in the mix, Stephenson was the extreme beneficiary of moving up to the top line with two highly skilled wingers in Mark Stone and Max Pacioretty. To compound his good fortune even more, coach Pete DeBoer has now rewarded the speedster with top power-play duties as well increasing his role and ultimately his minutes (17:14 per game). In relation to that opportunity, he gets a great matchup with a team struggling mightily to stop anyone on the power play. Coming into this contest, the Blues rank no better than 27th in goals allowed per 60, expected goals allowed per 60 and high-danger chances against per 60 while on the penalty kill.
Stephenson has been inconsistent all year with his production with points in just 10 of 23 games this year. But of those 10 point providing efforts half of them were multi-point efforts, so there is payoff to the price. His price has gradually gone up all year as the sites have recognized his role change, but on a fully correlated line with two expensive wingers, he still provides relief in terms of salary of the overall line.
Tomas Hertl – San Jose Sharks
FanDuel – $5,700, DraftKings – $3,900
After going through COVID protocol for the past few weeks Hertl jumps right back into our NHL DFS lives with a great matchup and price, especially on DraftKings. It’s possible they were just unaware of his return or they had forgotten he existed, but we shall not forget. Hertl has had a bit of an off year by his standards, with just 11 points in 17 games on a struggling Sharks team. This may be due as well to his continued recovery from a ripped-up knee around the midpoint of the 2019-20 season. Thankfully those numbers should see a nice boost, as the Sharks will be in Anaheim facing the Ducks for the next few games. The mostly young Ducks have struggled all year to possess the puck and stop the opponents from scoring, with Corsi-For, expected goals allowed per 60 and high-danger chances against all in the bottom third of the league.
Hertl should resume his spot back on the top power play. He makes for a great pivot to Logan Couture if needed or a great one-off since he likely won’t be correlated with either of his wingers.
NHL DFS Picks: Wingers
Mikko Rantanen – Colorado Avalanche
FanDuel – $8,000, DraftKings – $7,600
This play may have as much to do with Leon Draisaitl as it does Rantanen, but getting Rantanen at any kind of discount is always of note in NHL DFS. There is going to be little doubt where the most ownership lies on this slate after the Oilers 7-goal explosion on Wednesday night, so just by deduction we can assume Rantanen isn’t nearly as owned. This creates some automatic leverage on a small slate where it will be necessary to differentiate in large-field GPPS. With projected ownership at least 7% less than Draisaitl, you can comfortably full stack him or one-off him if you so choose. On the year, Rantanen has gotten a bit unlucky in his production total at just 25 points in 24 games. His individual rates in expected goals and assists both come in well over 1 per game, and both rank in the top 40 of the league. Plus, his line’s possession and scoring metrics all point to regression or an imminent explosion.
Tyler Pitlick – Arizona Coyotes
FanDuel – $4,000, DraftKings – $2,900
Getting bumped up to a line with two offensively skilled players has proven dividends for Pitlick. In four games playing alongside Christian Dvorak and Clayton Keller, Pitlick has doubled his season goal total from 3 to 6 and fired off 14 shots on goal in over 18 mins of ice time. The Coyotes have been trying anything to get the offense going with their key producers struggling, and so far he has seized the opportunity. It is unclear which line they’ll be matching up against, but avoiding the Joel Eriksson Ek line would be beneficial, as all the other Wild lines give up ample opportunities to their foes.
On slates this size in NHL DFS, we need to find players and stacks that are being left unowned. With plenty of ice time to be had and exposure to the power play, we could do far worse with these savings.
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NHL DFS Picks: Defensemen
Kevin Shattenkirk – Anaheim Ducks
FanDuel – $4,100, DraftKings – $3,900
If you have hung around in our fantasy NHL Slack channel, you’ll know all too well that I’ve been touting Shattenkirk for a few games now because he is just too cheap. This may be the last slate I can really say that, as his price has gone up steadily in his increased role with key defensemen out and the Ducks actually putting up goals. Even with the slightly elevated price, there are still no comps to his ice time or power-play time on either site in his price range (maybe Alec Martinez on FanDuel). For the year, Shattenkirk has averaged just under 22 minutes per game on the ice and produced 11 points and 45 shots. The Sharks should help his production; they have really struggled defensively, with the second-worst expected goals allowed per 60 over the last 10 games. He’s going to be out there regardless of the situation, and if the Ducks score, it is likely Shattenkirk will get involved one way or another.
Devon Toews – Colorado Avalanche
FanDuel – $4,700, DraftKings – $5,100
Much like Shattenkirk, the price doesn’t match Toews’ opportunity. He has been Colorado’s go-to defenseman in all situations through all of the injuries this year. Averaging 24:16 of ice time per game he comes in 17th among all defensemen while also averaging over 2 shots and over 10 fantasy points per game in any scoring system. As the shutdown pairing regardless of whom he is skating with, Toews will see likely more ice time in this one going up against the Anze Kopitar line at home. Maybe we’ll get lucky and the coaches will send Samuel Girard packing from the top power play given their recent lack of success.
NHL DFS Picks: Goalies
Antti Raanta – Arizona Coyotes
FanDuel – $7,300, DraftKings – $7,400
It seems that the Arizona don’t like playing much defense when Raanta is in net this year. In his eight starts this year, Raanta has stopped 30 pucks six times and scored at least 17 DraftKings points in five of those eight. The Wild rank in the top half of the league in shots on goal and shots attempted per 60 minutes, so the volume should once again be there. Unfortunately, Raanta’s worst start of the year came at the hands of the Wild, but this could also help keep his ownership extremely low. After stopping 60 of 62 shots in Colorado and recording a shutout, I would be willing to take my chances on a goaltender playing very well.
Top Stacks for FanDuel & DraftKings
EDM1 – Leon Draisaitl – Connor McDavid – Kailer Yamamoto
I am not sure much needs to be said here, as we all know what kind of matchup we’re getting. The projected ownership on this line is nearly 40% on FanDuel and still offering up leverage to our NHL DFS lineups. I fully understand fading them if you aren’t playing 150, but in any large-field tournament, I would be sure to match the field, or you could be absolutely sunk if they go nuclear.
VGK1 – Mark Stone – Chandler Stephenson – Max Pacioretty
This play is a lot do with ownership on a slate with McDavid, Draisaitl and Nathan MacKinnon soaking up a lot. Ownership for this full stack is projected for under 12% with positive leverage industrywide. In a very nice spot against a struggling Blues penalty kill, this fully correlated line has a massive ceiling.
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