Friday’s slate brings seven games to pick from, and there are plenty of NHL DFS picks to look over. The end of the regular season is nearing, and has already arrived for some teams, so predictability may be out the window, but expectations can only be based off what is available. As always, I’ll use Awesemo’s industry-leading projections, ownership projections and Top Stacks Tool to help narrow down picks for fantasy hockey lineups on DraftKings and FanDuel.
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NHL Power Plays: DraftKings + FanDuel DFS Picks | May 7
NHL DFS Picks: Center
Nathan MacKinnon (COL vs. LA)
DraftKings – $9,200
FanDuel – $8,800
This is one of the few games that involves two teams still jockeying for playoff spots. The Avalanche have secured a playoff spot but still have plenty of work to do to gain the No. 1 seed and hold off the Wild. It is not often prudent to go to a narrative-based play, but when they are as dependable as MacKinnon it’s good to have extra motivation. After a somewhat slow start to the year, MacKinnon has tallied 14 multi-point games since March 12. On a per-60 basis, MacKinnon is still leading the league in assists at 2.23 while also adding in 20 goals.
The Kings have been amongst the league’s worst defensive teams all year, allowing the third- and second-most scoring chances and high-danger chances. There is nothing the Avalanche do better than possessing the puck and getting scoring chances, as they are No. 1 nearly across the board in all. MacKinnon is still a very good value, with a projection well over double his price, and he has the upside to trump anyone on the slate.
Others: Tyler Seguin, Christian Dvorak, Logan Couture
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NHL DFS Picks: Winger
Conor Garland (ARI vs. SJ)
DraftKings – $5,600
FanDuel – $5,200
It is tough to find a better point-per-dollar play than Garland, even on a slate loaded with value. He carries the second-best projection at his position at a generous tag and ownership to match (under 15% on each site). In addition to those standout points, he also draws a fantastic matchup with Sharks, who rank in the bottom third in all defensive metrics at even strength.
Garland has not had the year everyone expected given his previous year’s output and progression, but his overall shot totals are up to nearly five per game. Having a career-worst year in shooting percentage at just 7.9% (well below league average), he should still find positive regression with his lofty projection.
NHL DFS Picks: Defensemen
Seth Jones (CBJ vs DET)
DraftKings – $6,500
FanDuel – $4,700
This is another tale of two sites, as Jones is severely over-priced on DraftKings considering his point production this year, but that should help keep his ownership down. That said, even with his great price on FanDuel, his projected ownership is just 11.8%. Getting a power-play quarterback facing the Red Wings deserves more attention than that. For the year, Jones is still putting up very respectable NHL DFS numbers, with over 11 fantasy points per games on FanDuel. The floor is always there with his 25 minutes per game, and with such low ownership, he’s the top leverage spot on the slate.
Cam Talbot (MIN vs ANA)
DraftKings – $7,000
FanDuel – $7,000
With projected ownership under 1% across the industry, it is impossible to ignore Talbot at home, especially on FanDuel. On DraftKings he is priced up accordingly, but with ownership to be considered, he’s very much in play on a slate with plenty of goalies facing better offenses. Per usual, the Wild are fantastic at forcing teams to shoot from the perimeter, facing the second-fewest high-danger chances. This should lead to some easy saves for Talbot (91.8% save percentage), and more importantly on FanDuel, it should get him an easy win.
Top Overall Stack
Col1: Rantanen – MacKinnon – Landeskog
This one isn’t really close on DraftKings. The Avalanche’s top line is uber-expensive, but that price is leading to under 10% projected ownership and six times the leverage of any other stack according to the Top Stacks Tool. Getting to just 15 to 20% COL1 stacks will be plenty and make for simple differentiation. On FanDuel it is quite a different story with the softer pricing, but they are still gaining positive leverage in comparison to their top-two stack percentage in the mid-30s.
Top Value Stack
DAL2: Seguin – Benn – Kiviranta
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Awesemo’s Player and Stack NHL DFS Rankings
NHL DFS Projections | Today’s Slate
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FanDuel Cheat Sheet: NHL DFS Playoff Picks with Mikko Rantanen | 6/8
NHL DFS Top Stacks Tool for DraftKings and FanDuel
NHL DFS Ownership Projections for DraftKings and FanDuel