We have a nine-game slate on Tuesday night that features a lot of late matchups. Be sure to stick around in our premium SlackChat for the latest news and information regarding goalies, lineups, injuries, and more. Let’s get into some NHL DFS Picks for you DraftKings, FanDuel daily fantasy hockey lineups.
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NHL DFS Picks: Center
Evgeni Malkin (PIT at NYR)
Sidney Crosby is not on the trip for the Penguins which effectively makes Malkin the first line centre for Pittsburgh as they head into New York. He gets a bit of an upgrade in wingers as he adds Jake Guentzel to his left, and it’ll undoubtedly be a big boost in ice time. On top of that, they’re facing a team that is last in shot attempts and 26 in goals allowed, all per 60 minutes at five on five. It’s a great matchup, is what I’m saying.
That it’s a good matchup is obvious but it’s the matchups within the matchups that make this even better for Malkin.
There is a good argument that Chris Kreider, without Mika Zibanejad in the lineup, is the best defensive forward in the lineup. And yet, the Rangers are using Ryan Strome and Artemi Panarin in the shutdown role, which would mean against the Malkin lineup tonight. This matchup clearly favours Malkin and his line mates, making him a one-off target in tournaments.
Carl Soderberg (ARI at STL)
Being the defending Stanley Cup champions will give you a lot of leeway, and will get some people to overlook your issues. The fact of the matter is that the Blues haven’t been very good defensively, as their expected goals against per 60 minutes at five on five this year is the same as Florida’s, and only slightly better than San Jose’s. That’s bad company to be keeping.
When digging deeper into the lineup, it’s really the depth from the Blues that is dragging down the team. The bottom-6 in particular has struggled, and the Blues just keep making themselves worse with recent trades and signings. Soderberg isn’t anything special – he’s about average by offensive play-driving and shot rates – but matching up against St. Louis’s third and fourth lines is a great matchup for Soderberg and his line mates. This is just a cheap one-off for tournaments who will have next to no ownership, nothing more.
NHL DFS Picks: Winger
Chris Kreider (NYR vs PIT)
As mentioned earlier, Kreider, and likely his line, are probably the best defensive matchup for Pittsburgh’s top line but they likely won’t be used in that manner. Without both Sidney Crosby and Kris Letang in the lineup, perhaps the best two-way options at either position, the Penguins don’t look as threatening as they normally would; without Letang and Crosby on the ice this year, shot attempts against the Penguins increases by over 14 percent. Â
Kreider’s new line, with Filip Chytil and Pavel Buchnevich, has been stellar offensively, generating nearly 62 shot attempts and 2.73 expected goals per 60 minutes. There’s also security in ice time as Kreider has played at least 16 minutes in every game for the last month, averaging over 18 minutes a night in that span. (Kreider, by the way, is leading the Rangers in shot attempts per 60 minutes at five on five.)
Kreider and Buchnevich have generally been players who can drive offence in the careers, the former more than the latter. In a matchup like this, Kreider is fine to use as a one-off in any format. Â
Gustav Nyquist (CBJ at MTL)
By shot share, the Montreal Canadiens have been one of the best teams in the NHL this year, coming it at 52.4 percent. The thing with the Habs, though, is that they have a very high pace of play, which means even with their excellent shot share, they’re still 20th in shot attempts allowed, giving up more in return than punching bags like Minnesota and Detroit. It’s just a function of Montreal’s pace of play.
With the duo of Phillip Danault and Brendan Gallagher off the ice, Montreal allows even more shots than mentioned above as they’re traditionally used to shut down opposing top lines. With Gustav Nyquist and Cam Atkinson not skating together at five on five, Nyquist shouldn’t see much of the shutdown line.
Nyquist has some positive regression to go through with his shooting percentage – shooting 6.7 percent right now, but is an 11.6 percent shooter in his first six full seasons – which is partly why he’s so cheap. At this price, for his expected minutes rate, in this matchup, Nyquist is a solid target as a one-off in tournaments.
NHL DFS Picks: Defencemen
Erik Karlsson (S.J. vs EDM)
It’s been a bad year for the Sharks, but the silver lining is that the team is still generating good amounts of offence with Karlsson on the ice; the team is averaging 2.47 expected goals per 60 minutes with him on the ice. No other Sharks defenceman is over 2.3, and Brent Burns is under 2.0. In other words, if we’re looking for a defenceman to really get involved in the offence and not constantly digging themselves out of the defensive zone.Â
Karlsson’s problem is that his shots and blocks are down from where they’ve traditionally been. Not that his shot rate being down is a surprise given how bad San Jose is, but the shot blocking is. (Maybe he’s just trying to stay as healthy as he can). That problem should remove Karlsson from cash game consideration because he does not have a high floor for a guy priced where he is. However, at this price, and given the quality of the individual player, he’s also a tournament target.
Charlie McAvoy (BOS vs. FLA)
Generally speaking, McAvoy is wildly overrated in all fantasy circles. He’s not a guy who shoots and he’s not a guy who gets prime power-play minutes. When you’re a defenceman that doesn’t shoot and doesn’t get prime power-play minutes, you’re basically relying on blocks for value, making Charlie McAvoy not much better an option than Kris Russell or Radko Gudas.
What’s different about this game is that Torey Krug, the guy who normally runs Boston’s top power-play unit, is not expected to play. Last year when Krug missed a couple weeks in March, it was McAvoy who took over the top unit, and his ice time jumped to over 24 minutes a night.
This is simply a guess on my part because there’s a chance it’s Matt Grzelcyk who runs the power play, but based off what happened last year, my bet is on McAvoy running the top PP unit, arguably the best PP unit in the NHL.
Lines to Stack on DraftKings and FanDuel
Colorado Top Line with Cale Makar
Going into Winnipeg means the Colorado top line facing off against Mark Scheifele’s line. With their new alignment, that means likely facing the line of Connor-Scheifele-Laine. All three of those Winnipeg forwards have negative defensive value, meaning below-average. That’s a juicy matchup for Colorado’s top line. Get them in your NHL DFS lineups.
The issue is what kind of stack to use. I’m not a believer in Matt Calvert, so using something like Donskoi-MacKinnon-Makar would make sense to me. Add Calvert as you see fit (he does drop the average price of the line.)
New York Rangers Second Line of Kreider-Chytil-Buchnevich
As mentioned earlier, this line has been very good together and they should get good matchups against the depth for the Penguins. That they’re all reasonably priced on DraftKings leaves a lot of room for expensive options like Edmonton’s top line.
