We have a four-game NHL DFS slate ahead of us today, but first, a brief intro on my NHL DFS picks columns.
It has been five months since my last Power Plays article, but here is roughly how I look to arrange my NHL DFS picks. There’ll be two players from each of the skater positions – C/W/D – as well as some stacks to target at the bottom. The names included in my articles, however, aren’t usually the household ones. Even a cursory glance at projections and ownership will get players familiar with the top-end options on any slate. DFS players don’t need me to tell them Nathan MacKinnon or Nikita Kucherov is a good option. Rather, it’s who to play with the studs, and that’s where this article comes in handy.
Check out the NHL DFS Strategy Show today at 12:30 ET with Michael Clifford and Jake Hari
As always, be sure to check our premium Slack for crucial lineup information in the 20-30 minutes leading up to every game’s lock. These NHL playoffs have been rife with significant line changes at the last minute, and with team media/PR sometimes not posting lines in a timely manner, we’re left holding the bag. It’s hard to do 3-4 times per day, just try as often as possible.
With all that out of the way, let’s get to today’s options.
NHL DFS Picks: Center
Nazem Kadri (COL at ARI): DraftKings – $5,400; FanDuel – $5,700
There haven’t been a lot of constants when talking about lineups these playoffs, but Kadri has been stapled to the second line, along with top power-play minutes, for Colorado. Those top PP minutes are crucial on a team with this many good-to-great scorers.
So far this round – meaning just against Arizona – Kadri is leading Colorado forwards in 5-on-5 shot attempts per minute at 5-on-5 (22.5). That’s a great sign for the Avs because Kadri’s shot attempt rate in the regular season with the Avs was a six-year low (15.26). Maybe his shot rate is a little high, but it’s not far off from his previous norms, and that’s good news for DFSers. We like guys who shoot, and Kadri has been shooting a lot. Ice time is a concern – he’s only averaged 16 minutes a night – but if there’s any team where his 16 minutes are more valuable than others, it’s in Colorado.
Kadri is fine to use in cash games, as a one-off for tournaments, or as part of some Colorado stack.
Ryan O’Reilly (STL at VAN): DraftKings – $4,900; FanDuel – $6,500
With the latest injury to Vladimir Tarasenko, the burden for the Blues is largely on the top line of O’Reilly, Schwartz, and Perron. In their game on Sunday night, Ryan O’Reilly played 26 out of 75 minutes in an overtime game, and that was without much power-play time. A couple more power plays and he’s well over 30 minutes. Long story short, he’s going to get lots of ice time.
O’Reilly’s problem is he generally doesn’t shoot a lot. He’s never averaged three shots per game in any season of his career, he averaged an eight-year low in shots/game this past regular season, and he has 11 shots in six games these playoffs. That makes him risky for contests where a reasonable floor is necessary, but more of a target for large-field tournaments, as a one-off or as part of a stack.
NHL DFS Picks: Winger
Emil Bemstrom (CBJ vs. TB): DraftKings – $2,500; FanDuel – $3,100
This is probably the most tenuous of all the DFS picks in this column. First, a little background.
As a 20-year-old in the Swedish Elite League last year, Bemstrom led the league in scoring with 23 goals in 47 games. That was done with a very high shooting percentage, but he did manage 10 tallies in 56 games this year with Columbus, playing what amounts to fourth-line minutes. We can add in six points in five games at the 2019 World Juniors, and all these pieces of production from across the world paint more or less the same picture: he’s a talented scorer.
Now, Bemstrom isn’t a sure-fire top-line scoring winger in the future, nor is he really a top-6 winger right now when considering where he is in his career. He did, however, skate the entire third period of the team’s last game with Pierre-Luc Dubois. It’s no guarantee that he’ll stay on the top line, especially when considering the button-pushing coach that is John Tortorella, but he looks to have the inside track. He’s also very cheap and takes part in the first game of the slate. If he’s not on the top line, we’ll be able to swap off. Of course, those who are not around for lock may not want to roster him.
Clayton Keller (ARI vs. COL): DraftKings – $4,400; FanDuel – $5,700
On my first video show for Awesemo these playoffs, I talked about the layoff. Basically, that the teams weren’t just on a pause, this was a full offseason for players to train (however they could). This means we should effectively be treating younger players as a year older. Rookies as second-year players, and so forth.
Keller had a wonderful rookie season followed by two bad seasons. Sure, he was stuck on a bad team, but his play-driving numbers were pedestrian, particularly offensively. Just watching him these playoffs, though, and he’s looking like the player he was drafted to be. He’s stickhandling through traffic, making the difficult passes, and generally doing things offensively that we haven’t seen consistently from him basically ever in his NHL career. Of course, these are anecdotal observations, so we can say that he’s skating on the top line with Taylor Hall, and he’s played at least 17 minutes in each game this series (he averaged 16 minutes a night in the regular season). He’s more of a one-off for GPPs or part of a stack than usage in cash games. He’s also a better value on DK than FD.
Tired of the industry consensus and of the hot take machine? How about a data driven approach for a change? The world’s No. 1 daily fantasy player has put his projections talents to work, creating Awesemo’s first ever Fantasy Football Draft Kit. In it, users will receive access to:
- Awesemo’s Fantasy Football Rankings
- The Draft Wingman
- Breakouts, Sleepers and Busts Table
- Awesemo Cheatsheets
- Customizable Strength of Schedule Tool
- Awesemo’s Live Mock Drafts (coming soon)
All this for just $29.95 and that includes a $35 credit for new users at FFPC. Sign up HERE!
NHL DFS Picks: Defense
Ryan McDonagh (TB at CBJ): DraftKings – $3,200; FanDuel – $4,400
What was said for Keller could be somewhat applied to McDonagh. The 2019-20 regular season was probably his worst year since the lockout, and his ice time reflected that as he averaged his lowest ice time per game at 5-on-5 for any season of his career.
There’s been a resurgence of sorts in the postseason as he’s added a full eight minutes per game in 5-on-5 TOI compared to the regular season. Now, they had that marathon overtime game, so that number is hugely skewed, so here is what’s important: McDonagh is averaging the second-most minutes on their blue line, and is more than two minutes ahead of his next-closest teammate. He’s being leaned on, and he’s looked good.
That level of ice time on this team is always noteworthy, especially for someone at his price point. Mikhail Sergachev will take most of the ownership as he runs the top PP unit, and Victor Hedman will always attract some ownership. McDonagh, playing the minutes he is, is a tournament pivot from the other options on this Tampa blue line. He’s another guy that is a better value on DK than FD. He’s generally one of my favourite NHL DFS picks of the day.
Jaccob Slavin (CAR vs. BOS): DraftKings – $4,800; FanDuel – $4,300
Slavin is kind of in the same boat as McDonagh, though much more expensive on DK. There is the top PP option that will take ownership in Dougie Hamilton and a secondary option in Sami Vatanen who could take some as well. Slavin, though, is in the middle where he’s sometimes ignored because of lack of power-play time, while people don’t realize he probably would have been a 40-point defenseman this past regular season without the PP usage. He has also averaged just shy of two shots and 1.6 shot blocks per game. So far in this round, he’s averaging more than three minutes in TOI above Dougie Hamilton at 5-on-5, and about a minute and a half in total TOI. In that time, he’s averaging over three shot blocks per game.
Slavin is another one-off to use on the blue line, or as part of a Carolina stack to differentiate a bit.
Top Stacks
Arizona Top Line Stack: Hall-Stepan-Keller
Tampa Bay Third Line Filler Stack: Gourde-Coleman-McDonagh
Colorado Power Play Stack: MacKinnon-Kadri-Rantanen-Makar
Thanks to Natural Stat Trick and Evolving Hockey for their stats
Follow us on all of our social channels! Check out our Twitter, Facebook, Instagram and YouTube for more great Awesemo content.
