Today’s NHL DFS slate is one quite unlike many we’ve seen so far this year, with no Connor McDavid or Auston Matthews to dominate ownership and five of the 14 teams on the slate on a back-to-back. Everything feels a bit crazy here, but with all of the rescheduling and COVID protocols, this was bound to happen at some point. This should make for a fun slate overall and possibly create some easy cross-offs as well, so let’s find some FanDuel and DraftKings NHL DFS picks for Tuesday, March 16.
In this Power Plays article, the goal is to highlight several NHL DFS picks for DraftKings and FanDuel daily fantasy hockey tournaments. Using Awesemo’s premium proprietary player projections and the top stacks tool, we will highlight several players and situations that will help your team rocket up the leaderboard.
As always, be sure to check our premium Slack for crucial fantasy hockey lineup information in the 20 to 30 minutes leading up to every game’s lock. With the COVID-19 pandemic still looming, teams have taxi squads and are ready to fill positions daily as teams scratch players. Our Slack chat is hands down one of the best places to get fantasy hockey news and line change notifications.
NHL Power Plays: DraftKings + FanDuel Picks | March 16
NHL DFS Picks: Centers
Jordan Staal — Carolina Hurricanes vs. Detroit Red Wings
FanDuel — $5,100
DraftKings — $5,700
Averaging exactly 18 minutes per game and manning the slot for the top power play unit in all the land is hard to ignore. Staal is having a banner year, already putting up 22 points in 25 games, which nearly matches his entire output in each of the last two seasons. Much of his success can be accredited to his efficiency and work near the net. With 18 high-danger chances, Staal is leading the Hurricanes and ranks ninth overall in the NHL. This speaks to his ridiculous (and likely unsustainable) shooting percentage of 21.7%. Fortunately, I don’t think regression is something we’ll be concerned with here, facing the hapless Red Wings and their 29th-ranked penalty kill (71.1%).
The Hurricanes’ ability to possess the puck and the Red Wings’ inability to do so will lead to power-play opportunities for Staal to tally some easy points. At this price he can still easily make value and makes for a very good play in all formats.
Joel Eriksson Ek — Minnesota Wild vs. Arizona Coyotes
FanDuel — $5,000
DraftKings — $4,900
Eriksson Ek has upped his size, role and production in each of the last five years. He has moved into the top line as a shutdown center on a surprisingly good Wild team, and he’s become a solid fantasy producer. With 11 goals in 26 games, Eriksson Ek has already surpassed last year’s total, doing so with a willingness to hang in the slot and by the net. He has eliminated weak shots from outside the slots, which has benefited his shooting percentage, which is now up to 18.3%. If we look a bit deeper, the quality of chances he’s creating per game are among the league’s best, as he is tied for 10th in high-danger chances with one fewer game than anyone else in the top 25.
The Coyotes have been poor defensively at all strengths, but especially on the penalty kill, with a league-worst expected goals allowed. The Wild have struggled mightily on the power play all year but did show some life last game putting one home. We can count on five-on-five time for Eriksson Ek (17:48 per game), so if the Wild can cash in some opportunities, the ceiling is there at a great price tag.
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NHL DFS Picks: Wingers
Sam Reinhart — Buffalo Sabres vs. New Jersey Devils
FanDuel — $5,400
DraftKings — $4,800
The Sabres power play has been surprisingly decent all season despite some extreme struggles and injuries throughout the roster. Reinhart has been healthy for the majority of the year and has helped the Sabres rank in the top 10 in expected goals per 60, expected goal percentage and goals per 60 while on the power play. And lucky for us, the Devils penalty kill has struggled for most of the year, ranking in the bottom third of the league in most metrics. With so many pieces missing, it’s hard to expect hefty production from anyone on the Sabres. But as the team leader in goals (11) and points (19), there is upside to this matchup and leverage on the field, with Reinhart’s ownership under 5% industrywide. With lots of mid-tier options and the team’s struggles, this spot actually sets up very well for Reinhart.
Andre Burakovsky — Colorado Avalanche vs. Anaheim Ducks
FanDuel — $4,900
DraftKings — $4,700
Over his last 10 games, Burakovsky has been one of the best fantasy point producers per dollar, averaging 3.1 shots per game and marking up the scoresheet 9 times (3 goals, 6 assists). If we extrapolate his numbers to a larger picture, he is putting up the best Corsi numbers of his career, with an individual Corsi-for of 58.6%. That puts him in territory with the likes of Aleksander Barkov and Tyler Toffoli. Burakovsky has obviously not reached these player’s status in the league, but his pricing in comparison to those players hasn’t adjusted either. On top of what is already a good individual play, the Avalanche get a plus matchup at home with Anaheim. The Ducks rank in the bottom third of the league defensively across the board, and maybe most importantly, they struggle to maintain control of the puck, with just a 49.18% Corsi. On a line that is deployed heavily in the opponent’s zone (58.7% offensive-zone face0ffs), there will be easy chances created.
Dipping down to a second-line player on any size slate is one of the best ways to differentiate in NHL DFS. Doing so in a very good matchup with a player at a value tag is about all you can ask for.
NHL DFS Picks: Defensemen
Miro Heiskanen — Dallas Stars vs. Tampa Bay Lightning
FanDuel — $4,500
DraftKings — $5,100
I’ll preface this by saying it is a much better play on FanDuel considering the matchup, but there is still plenty to like with Heiskanen. The Stars have finally committed to putting him on the top power play, which should continue to benefit his ice time and productions. On the year, Heiskanen is averaging 24:32 on the ice, with just one game under 24 minutes in his last 10 with the increased role. John Klingberg has been relegated to the second power play and more of a shutdown role in his pairing with Esa Lindell. And even though the Lightning are not a great matchup for any team offensively, they have been oddly undisciplined this year, taking the third-most penalties in the league per 60 minutes (4.11). If nothing else, this should make for great floor for a defensemen with some skills.
[osBestBetsSingleGameOdds league=”nhl” date=”03/16/2021″ team=”stars”]
Rasmus Ristolainen — Buffalo Sabres vs. New Jersey Devils
FanDuel — $3,900
DraftKings — $3,900
Skating on the top power play in Buffalo is not exactly thrilling, but it does bode well for the floor and even some upside for Ristolainen. From a fantasy standpoint, he is outperforming all below his price tag on both sites, with the exception of Filip Hronek on FanDuel. For the year, Ristolainen is averaging just below a blocked shot per game, with 18 in 19 contests and getting just under 2 shots on goal per game. As mentioned above, the New Jersey penalty kill has been very bad all year, and it’s the only facet of the game the Sabres have been continuously productive in. It is a bit surprising to see him only averaging 22:34 of playing time per game in comparison to previous years, but the Buffalo coaching staff is not exactly revered for making wise decisions. With ownership basically non-existent — projected 8% DraftKings and 4% FanDuel — Ristolainen is a nice complement to chalkier stacks.
NHL DFS Picks: Goalie
Semyon Varlamov — New York Islanders vs. Washington Capitals
FanDuel — $8,800
DraftKings — $7,400
Because FanDuel prices the position as a team position and only puts emphasis on wins, this play is more focused for DraftKings where volume matters. Varlamov has been spectacular all year, with a 92.9 save percentage and 2.03 goals against per game in a season where we see teams under 90% and allowing over 4 goals per game. At this price he is easily the best real-life and fantasy goalie, with others such as Carter Hutton and Adin Hill priced within a few hundred dollars. Washington is on the back end of a road back-to-back, so volume could be an issue, but quality may be as well. The Islanders have done a great job staying out of the box all year, with the league’s second-fewest penalties taken. This should help keep Alex Ovechkin and the Capitals’ top-10 power play off the ice and help Varlamov secure a good start.
Top Stacks
BOS1
Line: Brad Marchand — Patrice Bergeron — David Pastrnak
Even though the Bruins may be struggling as a team at five-on-five, it is not because of this line. Their years of putting up dominant numbers still have not changed this year, even with some grumblings. For the year this trio has possession and scoring metrics all at or above 60% and an expected goals at a phenomenal 8.41.
On the back end of a back-to-back and going up against the Penguins, this line is going way under-owned, with leverage scores at least double that of the stacks behind them. With Colorado carrying so much ownership, this makes for a fantastic pivot for some of that exposure on a smaller slate.
MIN2
Line: Mats Zuccarello — Victor Rask — Kirill Kaprizov
With very reasonable price tags (under $16,000) on both sites and positive leverage, you could definitely find worse in this range. In comparison to other lines in their price range, there are only a handful of lines with positive leverage, but all are facing much more difficult matchups than the Wild. The Coyotes have had trouble all year stopping teams from scoring when their goaltending hasn’t been stellar, as the Wild have shown with 15 goals in their first four meetings.
Kaprizov has looked fantastic all year, creating opportunities and flying around the ice. Until he gets priced up into the $6,000s, we need to take advantage.
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