Skaters and Goalies – October 19

On these short slates, you’re going to have dive a little deeper than you normally might, to take down a GPP. I like trying to find third liners in good spots, who might go overlooked as players try to stuff in as many top-six forwards as possible. Let’s explore some of these bargain, low-owned options today.

The value plays:

Forwards:

James Neal, $4200 (DK ONLY). Grade: B, Value: A

Revenge game! The Flames third line is going to go under owned tonight, but they make for a nice, cheap option to stack with some of the high-priced options at the top at extremely low ownership. Though I prefer just slotting James Neal in as a one-off, at that price. The former 30-goal scorer has been on the ice for a respectable 14 high danger chances this season, with a 57% CF rate. He’ll get 15 minutes of ice-time and a spot on the PP2. Great value.

Roope Hintz: DraftKings: $2700, FanDuel: $3000. Grade: D, Values: A, A

Awesemo hasn’t updated his rankings to reflect Hintz’s likely promotion to the top line. Obviously we don’t have a lot of stats to go on here, given that he’s only been given fourth line minutes so far this season. But Hintz has flashed some offensive upside during his minor league career, scoring 20 goals and averaging a half-point a game in his first AHL season last year. Obviously, he makes a DAL1 stack more cost effective on both sites. Tread carefully if his ownership creeps up. We don’t know if he’ll be on PP1 yet. The Wild allowed the second most scoring chances for last season.

As mentioned in the News and Notes, check line rushes before the game to make sure that Alex Radulov isn’t going to play. He’s doubtful with an LBI.

Defence:

Roman Josi: DraftKings, $5200, FanDuel: $5800. Grade: A, Value: A, A

Josi has been removed from Nashville’s PP1 in favour of PK Subban this season, which has caused his price to plummet $1000-1500 less than it was for most of last year. He’s still getting 20 minutes a game and PP2 time. Josi and Ellis are getting slightly less offensive zone starts than Subban and Ekholm, but are generally facing an easier quality of competition. If last game is any indication, they’ll likely see a fair amount of the Flames top-line tonight – which is a better match-up than facing the defensively stingy second-line. CGY1 is -10% in Unblocked Shot Attempts For, while CGY2 is +13%.

Goalies:

There’s no shortage of goalie options tonight. Brayden Holtby and Ben Bishop are big home favorites going up against offenses near the bottom in scoring chances for this season. They’ll both be popular.

At $7700, Pekka Rinne (B,B) is just too cheap on DraftKings, for last year’s Vezina winner. To date this season, Rinne has a .945 save percentage and a 1.75 GAA. The Flames have the second lowest implied total of the night and are miniscule home favorites.

 Contrarian goalie, FanDuel

The Minnesota Wild are allowing an average of 38 shots per game this season, so Devan Dubnyk (E,C) has a chance to rack up those save points. He’ll likely be the second-lowest owned goalie on the slate, behind James Reimer (also in play as a contrarian option: WAS boasts a league worst 37% HDCF). The Stars offence will be a worse off without Radulov tonight, but they’re still projected for 3.3 GF. A strategy I’ll always love for GPPs is to take the goalie opposing the most owned stack of the night (or second most owned). If said goalie plays well, you’ve not only got yourself a win, but also eliminated a huge chunk of your competition in the process. Sprinkle him in a lineup or two to diversify from your Benn-Seguin stacks.

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