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4/1/22 MUST-BET NBA Player Props | Will Barton

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Welcome to the month of April. With it being April Fool’s Day, let’s just say the joke is on you if you aren’t taking advantage of tonight’s massive NBA betting slate! With ten games scheduled for Friday evening, the opportunities for bettors are endless. You can easily enhance your NBA player props handicapping process further by including the redesigned OddsShopper as well as NBA betting tips today. Thanks to this tremendous tool, finding the best NBA player props bets today is as simple as three quick steps: Filter, sort, bet.

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With help from OddsShopper, the following article highlights three must-bet NBA player props for Thursday’s action.

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With OddsShopper, finding the best NBA player props betting odds is fast and simple. All users have to do is filter the prop selections, sort the page and find the best pick to bet. The process is extremely quick and highly effective. Try out the tool for yourself tonight with the three featured prop bets below!

Killian Hayes Under 5.5 Rebounds (-130, Caesars)

It turns out that Killian Hayes may actually have what it takes to be a quality NBA point guard after all. With veteran teammate Cory Joseph ruled out for tonight’s game against the Oklahoma City Thunder, Hayes could garner even more playing time than he has recently. Certainly, no one can argue with the statistical production he has been supplying of late. In addition to scoring in double figures in five of the last six games, Hayes also has totaled four rebounds or more in all but one game over that same stretch.

Thanks to his recent efforts on the glass, the NBA player props total has been elevated up to 5.5 for Hayes in tonight’s contest. While playing time certainly discredits some of his early-season stat lines, it is worth pointing out that this line sits over two full rebounds above the 3.2 he has averaged per game this year. Although he has been regularly going over that production mark, Hayes has still only eclipsed the NBA props total three times in his last eight games played.

Given the statistical discrepancy, it’s no surprise that OddsShopper shows the under carrying significant juice at all sportsbooks across the market. Even though -130 odds are the best value available, OddsShopper is still keen on betting that side of the prop. A projection of 4.77 rebounds comes up well short of the NBA player props total. Along with a 66% win probability, this prediction also yields a 16% expected ROI value.

Jalen Green Under 3.5 Assists (-104, FanDuel)

The upside that Jalen Green possesses as a scorer was well-documented even before he was drafted second overall by the Houston Rockets. Sure enough, he has delivered on that promise in his rookie season. Coming into Friday’s matchup against the Sacramento Kings, Green is averaging 16.8 points per game. Unfortunately for Rockets fans, the pre-draft concerns that Green does not contribute regularly in other phases of the game have also been justified in his maiden NBA campaign. As far as assists, Green has only supplied 2.6 on a per-game basis this season.

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Note that Green’s assists average comes up nearly one full tally shy of tonight’s NBA player props total of 3.5. He would need to exceed his usual production by 1.4 assists in order for this prop to go over. Like the Rockets themselves, the Kings are a favorable matchup for opposing offenses thanks to having the fourth-worst defensive efficiency in the NBA. However, this does not necessarily mean that Green will see a significant uptick in assists. In fact, the two teams just played one another on Wednesday. Green erupted for 32 points in the game but had only two assists. 

The fact that OddsShopper actually shows several sportsbooks slightly juiced to the over, OddsShopper only loves betting this prop under all the more. The projections tab Green for 2.99 assists in tonight’s game. When one makes this wager using optimal -104 odds, the expected ROI value is a massive 28%. Note that this price is up to 26 cents cheaper than other listings across the NBA betting market.


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Will Barton Over 3.5 Assists (-130, PointsBet)

As Nikola Jokic continues to drag the Denver Nuggets to what would be an improbable division title, the recent contributions of Will Barton also deserve some recognition. The veteran wing has been stuffing the stat sheet to the brim. Along with scoring 17+ points in each of the last four games, Barton has also supplied five or more assists in three of those games. The one time in which he failed to hit that mark, he still finished with three dimes. 

Given that the NBA player props total for tonight’s game sits at 3.5 assists, it’s clear that Barton is trending to the over of late. Furthermore, he has averaged 3.9 assists per game on the season overall. Thus Barton would need to fall short of his typical production by nearly one full assist for this NBA props offering to stay under. Taking this into account, it’s no wonder that OddsShopper shows the NBA betting market is juiced to the over across the board.

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The impact of the Nuggets facing the Minnesota Timberwolves as far as this prop is concerned could be twofold. First of all, the Wolves are merely an average defensive team. Second, they also are tied for one of the fastest tempos in the league. More possessions for both sides would theoretically lead to more opportunities for Barton to generate assists. Awesemo projects him to record 4.33 assists in tonight’s game. When coupled with favorable -130 odds, the expected ROI for this over prediction comes in at 11%.


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