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🎲 Tennis Quarters/Semis Betting Picks for Lyon, Doha, Rotterdam and Buenos Aires

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Josh Anderson uses Awesemo's expert projections to find the best DraftKings Tennis DFS picks for Belgrade and Lyon | 5/19/21

With the Australian Open completed, we have now moved on to the best tennis matches and tennis betting picks for 500-level tournaments in Doha and Rotterdam, as well as 250-level tournaments in Lyon and Buenos Aires.

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Early Rounds Recap

By far the most notable performance in the early rounds of these tournaments was the incredible temper tantrum thrown by Benoit Paire in his match against Francisco Cerundolo yesterday. Paire won the first set and suffered an early break in the second, clearly becoming frustrated in the process. He then received a code violation for spitting into the air and got involved in a shouting match with the referee and tournament supervisor. The match mercifully ended in a quick third set when Paire completely quit on the match and threw a temper tantrum. Paire has always been a very talented player with one of the best backhands on tour, but he has never been able to put together a consistent level of play simply because of his lack of mental fortitude.

On the complete opposite end of that, we saw Victoria Azarenka somehow prevail in a match in which she hurt her back during warmups and could barely move. At times her serve was just high bouncing balls moving at Little League pitching speeds that should have been easily returned for winners. She also was unable to hit any sort of overhead volley because she was unable to stretch her arms up to sky. Elina Svitolina kept just returning serves down the middle of the court.

Tennis Betting Picks: March 5 Quarterfinals/Semifinals

I’m more than a little worried that we won’t get to see the great matchup of Garbine Muguruza and Victoria Azarenka in the semifinals of Doha due to Azarenka’s back injury. That matchup could easily be the final of a major championship. Muguruza has arguably been in the best form of any player since the start of this season — it took two blown match points and failing to serve out for Muguruza to fall to Naomi Osaka in the quarterfinals in Melbourne. Had she been able to finish off that match, she would have been the favorite to win the Australian Open, and for my money probably would have won. Even without the back injury, I would heavily favor Muguruza. In the other semifinal matchup in Doha, Jessica Pegula takes on Petra Kvitova. Pegula is another player that has been in awesome form since the start of the season. She had to work her way through qualifying in this tournament and has cruised past Qiang Wang, Jelena Ostapenko and Karolina Pliskova. She will be a great test to see where Kvitova’s game is.

It has been nice to see the resurgence of Kei Nishikori in Rotterdam this week. The oft-injured player was at one point ranked No. 4 during the heyday of the Big Three. Hopefully this week has been a sign of things to come for him because his game is one of the most pleasing to the eye on tour. The top half of the bracket in this tournament is completely wide open, with Daniil Medvedev’s first-round upset loss to Disan Lajovic and Alexander Bublik’s win over Alexander Zverev. Nishikori has a great chance to make the finals here, but he will still be a massive underdog to either Stefanos Tsitsipas or Andrey Rublev.

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Betting Picks

Tommy Paul +146: I’ve liked how Paul has looked this week. He has steadily improved every year of his career. His matchup against Marton Fucsovics will be a great litmus test, as Fucsovics skunked him last year in the Australian Open.

Garbine Muguruza -4 games: There is a pretty decent chance that this match won’t even happen or Azarenka will retire mid-match. That said, if Azarenka tries to play, there is just no way her back will recover enough in time for the amount of power and shot placement that Muguruza possesses. 

Karen Khachanov +212, +3 games: Fair warning, Khachanov loves to let me down in these spots. Tsitsipas has been very lucky to advance through the first two rounds of this tournament and hasn’t looked in his best form. This is a great chance for Khachanov to score a big upset and get his career back on track. 

Pablo Andujar -100: Cerundolo was the fortunate person who advanced due to Paire’s hysterics. Between the Concepcion Challenger, Cordoba and now Buenos Aires, Cerundolo has traveled a lot and has seen plenty of court time in the last few weeks. He looked very fatigued at the start of the Paire match, and I expect Andujar to pounce on any signs of fatigue and not let up tomorrow.


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Blaine Jungwirth contributes expert tennis and data analysis to Awesemo.com. Blaine's work in quantifying fantasy production in tennis is amongst the tops in the industry and his tennis projections are a must-have for any fan of the emerging field of tennis DFS. You can contact Blaine by emailing [email protected].

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