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NHL Betting Picks: Ducks vs. Sharks | Feb. 5
The Ducks broke out of a three-game losing streak two nights ago with a dominant 3-1 win against the Kings. Anaheim has shown spurts of progress this year, even though they still rank near the bottom of the league in several advanced stats. They enter this game with a 4-5-2 record after 11-games and have seen four of their losses come by just a goal. They have a -9 goal differential, but it could be worse, as they have given up the third-most scoring chances against on the season. John Gibson has provided steady goaltending for the most part and enters this game with a .924 save percentage and a 4-4-2 record that includes two shutouts. The Ducks have been terrible on the power play (second-to-last in efficiency there), but they have been stronger on the penalty kill than they were last season and rank sixth in penalty-kill efficiency.
Most teams would have an edge against such a raw team like the Ducks, but the Sharks have plenty of issues of their own. San Jose enters this game having played just eight games thus far and have just a 3-5 record to show for it. They’ve been an abject disaster from a statistical standpoint, as they have also carry a -9 goal differential but have acquired that deficit through three fewer games than the Ducks. Four of the Sharks’ five losses have come by 2 or more goals, and they’ve had average to sub-par goaltending from Martin Jones and Devan Dubnyk, neither of whom carry a save percentage over .910. The loss of veterans like Joe Pavelski looks like it’s finally come home to roost here, as the lack of scoring up front has left them unable to make up for a thin defense that’s anchored by one of the worst goaltending duos in the league.
Best Bet: Ducks Moneyline (-111) vs. Sharks (MGMbets)
The Ducks are bad, but they aren’t as bad as the Sharks, and they should likely be heavier favorites in this matchup given that they’re at home. Anaheim carries just a 45.7% expected goal rate (xGF%) into this game, which is bad but not nearly as bad as San Jose, who sits last in the league at 40.22%. Not only are the Sharks not scoring, they’re also creating fewer scoring chances than anyone else in the league right now
The Ducks may not have a top line duo to match the likes of Logan Couture and Evander Kane up front, but their scoring depth is much stronger and should eventually win out here. The advantage in net also tips the scale in the Ducks favor here. Gibson has outright won games for the Ducks already, and he bounced back nicely off a couple of bad starts against the Kings, stopping 20 of 21 shots. Coming in here off two days of rest, he should be fine to limit the Sharks paltry attack and give his team a shot to win, even if they only get him a couple of goals in support. With home teams still hitting at an over 60% clip to start the year, taking the near-even odds on the Ducks seems like the right play for Friday.
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Bonus: Flyers Moneyline +115 (Pointsbet)
The Bruins have clearly been buoyed by the return of David Pastrnak. They have gone 2-0-1 with him in the lineup and averaged 4 goals over that span. Before a late-game collapse against the Bruins two days, though, the Flyers were in the midst of turning things around and were winners of four games in a row. The Bruins have already taken the first three games from the Flyers this year, outscoring them 15-8, and while that’s concerning, it’s worth noting that the Flyers went 3-1 against the Bruins last year. The big odds here on Philadelphia at home look like an overreaction, and they are worth taking tonight.
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