The first round of the Australian Open mostly played to form as the only top-10 seed to lose in either draw was Gael Monfils to Emil Ruusuvuori. Ruusuvuori was the favored side by the tennis betting oddsmakers, so there was no surprise to that result. The highest women’s seed to lose was Victoria Azarenka in a somewhat surprising loss to Jessica Pegula. Pegula has been playing very solid tennis of late and was unlucky to not beat Sofia Kenin in the warmups for this major. The Azarenka loss definitely opens that part of the bracket up for Kenin and Jennifer Brady. My model, which has always seemed to underrate Brady, increased her chances for winning this tournament by nearly 2%. Similarly, Kenin’s chances increased by 0.81%. The loss also knocked out a seed that Ashleigh Barty potentially would have to get through, and her chances of winning after her double bagel of Danka Kovinic increased by 3%.
Serena Williams and Iga Swiatek are two other players whose form I want to mention. Williams smoked French Open quarterfinalist Laura Siegemund in her first-round match 6-1, 6-1, posting a 2.55 dominance ratio along the way. While Williams looked like she was moving much better than she has in recent years, the test was always going to be if she can keep her form over a two-week period, especially as her opponents get progressively more difficult. After factoring in Round 1 results, Williams’ chances of winning this tournament increased by over 5%. I am not planning on backing her at her outright price of +850, but if she continues to look as in form as she did during the first round, I’ll be looking to back her in individual matches. As for Swiatek, I mentioned in the tournament preview article that I was concerned about rust and her switch to Tecnifibre rackets coming off of her French Open win. She must have read my article because she looked motivated and as dominant as she was during her run at Roland Garros, as she beat a player she had previously lost to in Arantxa Rus 6-1, 6-3. I am curious to see if she can continue this form in a potentially tricky matchup against Camila Giorgi in the second round. If she does, I may be convinced to lay some action on her quarter and outright prices.
Now let’s get into Round 2 of the Australian Open tennis betting picks.
Australian Open Tennis Betting Picks Round 2 Preview
Novak Djokovic – Frances Tiafoe: If Tiafoe is on his A++ game, there is definitely a world where he can take a set or two off of Djokovic. Regardless, even in a 3-0 Djokovic sweep, this match should be pretty fun to watch, as there should be plenty of long rallies.
Coco Gauff – Elina Svitolina: This is a fascinating matchup between the precocious Gauff and Svitolina. Svitolina, having made the quarterfinals or better in four of the last six majors, is like the Iceman of the WTA, using a counterpunching game and letting her opponents make the mistakes. This match will completely fall on Gauff’s racket, and if she can limit errors and keep her first serves in, she has a great chance. Oddsmakers opened this line at Gauff +175, and I really like being on that side of this match.
Emil Ruusuvuori – Pedro Martinez Portero: The winner of this match has a great chance to make a Round of 16 appearance against Alex Zverev, which would be a career best for both the Ruusuvuori and Martinez. Alexander Zverev looked pretty off in his first-round matchup as well, so a quarterfinals appearance for either one of these players would not be shocking at all.
Danielle Collins – Karolina Pliskova: These two played a week ago in the Yarra Valley Classic, with Collins winning in two sets. Pliskova completely outmatched Jasmine Paolini in the first round, displaying her dominant serve and overpowering forehand. At this point in her career, Pliskova is in “prove it” mode for me in big tournaments until she actually wins one. Collins, who is a gamer in every sense of the word and loves playing in these big matches, is live to win here and advance far in this tournament. The odds of +101 are too short for me to actually back her, though.
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Round 2 Tennis Betting Picks
Coco Gauff +175: See above.
Rebecca Marino (+325), +4 games: Marino was once ranked as a top-40 player before taking a break from tennis, citing mental health. She is back after taking five years off and made it through Kimberly Birrell in the first round, winning 6-0, 7-6. She played very solid tennis throughout the match and never even allowed Birrell to see a break point. Her opponent, Marketa Vondrousova, has been a complete mystery since her shocking finals run in the 2019 French Open. Vondrousova appears to alternate between caring and not caring about her matches, sometimes during the middle of matches. She was down a set and 2-6, 1-3 to Rebecca Peterson before flipping that switch and coming back to win 2-6, 7-5, 7-5. In the match she committed 10 double faults and 38 unforced errors, and she generally looked disinterested. There may be a talent mismatch, but there also seems to be a massive mismatch in motivation and mental state between these two. I like Marino to either win or at least take a set cover the +4 games.
Christopher O’Connell (-163): Both O’Connell and his opponent, Radu Albot, picked up big upsets in the first round. O’Connell rode the home crowd and an erratic Jan-Lennard Struff, and Albot beat Roberto Bautista Agut in what was probably the worst match I’ve ever seen Bautista Agut play. I think O’Connell again will use the home-court advantage and take care of business against Albot.
Tommy Paul (+118): I faded Casper Ruud in the first round in my previous article, and it didn’t work out at all. What could possibly go wrong by doing it again?
Svetlana Kuznetsova (-114): Belinda Bencic has had a rough couple years as she has dealt with a plethora of injuries. She looked extremely rusty against Lauren Davis in her first match back. I don’t expect her to return to form fast enough to defeat Kuznetsova, who cruised by Barbora Strycova in the first round.
If you’re looking to build a favorites parlay, these are the ones I think represent the best value of price compared to their probability of winning: Bianca Andreescu, Anett Kontaveit, Karolina Muchova, Emil Ruusuvuori, Elena Rybakina, Serena Williams, Ashleigh Barty, Denis Shapovalov, Alex de Minaur.
Check out the AwesemoOdds home page for more sports betting content, including Australian Open tennis betting picks and predictions.
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