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NBA Picks + NBA Odds: Celtics vs. Heat
Bam Adebayo Over 16.5 Points: -100 (BetMGM) Â
A pivotal Game 4 takes place tonight in the Eastern Conference with the Heat and Celtics back on the court. Miami holds a 2-1 advantage, and it is an easy case to say whoever wins this game will go on to win the entire series. Boston comes in as a 3-point favorite, which is similar to the lines we have seen throughout the series.
There are all sorts of player props to break down, but I am going to lean to the over on Abedayo’s point total, which sits at 16.5 in this Game 4 matchup. We know how important Adebayo has been to the Heats success, and he is causing a lot of problems for this Celtics frontcourt. The first thing that caught my eye was the minutes with Adebayo playing nearly 39 minutes per game over the first three games. That is going to give him ample time to rack up volume and is the first step of why I like this prop.
Adebayo comes into this game averaging 22 point in the series, and a lot of that is due to his aggressiveness on the boards. He is averaging 10.7 rebounds per game, leading to some cheap points at the line where he is averaging over seven free throw attempts per game. That is key for a guy who isn’t taking a ton of shots and mostly relies on efficiency and easy opportunities around the rim. As long as he can stay out of foul trouble, I believe we will see similar lines to the recent games in this series, which have him soaring over this total.
MGM has the best line in the market: Completely 50/50 at -100. Most of the other books have the over shaded in the -115 or -120 range, so avoiding that juice is another reason to like this spot. The Celtics personnel in the frontcourt really doesn’t match up with Abedayo’s skillset, and I do not see many ways they can limit him on the inside given the way he scores via putbacks and easy opportunities. Until they adjust Abedayo’s point total or the Celtics find a new way to limit him, I will lean to this over, especially at the prices we can find in the market today.
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