AwesemoOdds: NBA Prop Pick of the Day | Celtics vs. Heat| 9/25

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NBA Picks + NBA Odds: Celtics vs. Heat

Bam Adebayo Under 17.5 Points: -110 (DraftKings) 

The Eastern Conference champion could be crowned tonight as the Miami Heat look to finish off the Boston Celtics. The Heat lead 3-1, and it is going to take a massive effort for Boston to get back in this series. Vegas does think they’ll find a way to Game 6, as they are a 3-point favorite once again tonight.

I am going to take another shot with Adebayo’s point total, which sits at 17.5 across the betting markets. Adebayo hit his total the other night at 16.5 when it went over, but this time I am on the other side and looking to short this number. Price-wise, it’s around a toss-up with -110 on both sides of this one.

First thing to note is Adebayo’s wrist which was injured late in Game 4, but apparently nothing too worrisome. It remains to be seen if he is limited in anyway, but if the game gets out of hand or anything along those lines, I do expect them to be slightly more cautious with him. I have no reason to think Adebayo won’t see his full volume of minutes, and he could push for 40 again. Despite being on the court a ton, Adebayo relies on efficiency over volume.

He comes into this game taking just over 13 shots a game, and considering none are 3-pointers, he needs to shoot a high percentage to rack up points. Now, a lot of these shots are putbacks and dunks, but again, he isn’t going to be looking for his own offense a ton. The wild card is him getting to the line, where he can add some easy points. That is where the Celtics need to limit the damage. Last game the Celtics outrebounded the Heat, and if they continue that trend, I think it will limit some of Adebayo’s abilities on the offensive glass. With the line at -110 and the total rising slightly from previous games, I feel comfortable shorting this spot and hoping that we see a quieter version of Adebayo tonight in Game 5.


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Author
*Ben Rasa (aka Jazzraz)* has been involved with sports and numbers for quite some time dabbling in the poker world , sports wagering and of course finding a home in the DFS world. While he enjoys playing NFL, NCAAF and NBA he has found his best advantage on the links with PGA and the Euro Tour. Jazzraz focuses on GPPs and uses a analytical approach to try and find pricing inefficiencies as well as trying to go against the grain to find those under owned lesser know players that can make the difference in giant field tournaments. You can contact Ben by emailing [email protected].

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