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NBA Picks + NBA Odds: Clippers vs. Nuggets
Kawhi Leonard Under 31.5 Points: -106 (BetMGM, as of 10 a.m EST)
We get a Game 7 in the Western Conference semis as the Clippers and Nuggets look to move on and take on the Lakers. When the Clippers went up 3-1, I would have guaranteed this series would not see a Game 7, so credit for Denver for once again battling. They did this same thing in the opening round against Utah and were able to survive and advance.
There are all sorts of player props to break down, but I am going to short Kawhi Leonard’s point total which sits at big number in 31.5 in this Game 7 matchup. We know that Leonard is built for these type of games and has all the experience you could want, but that is a lofty point total. Part of my interest in coming under is I think this game may be a little lower scoring, and if it soars under the 207-point total, that will put even more pressure on Leonard’s numbers.
So far in this series, Leonard is averaging 26 points per game in almost 39 minutes played, and he easily could push for 40-plus tonight. Still, the volume of shots should fall in the high teens, possibly low 20’s, so he will need to be efficient to push over this total. Leonard is only getting to the line 6.5 times per game on average in this series, which is down from the 9.2 free throws per game he had against Dallas in round 1. Those extra points from the free throw line are crucial, and if the Nuggets limit that, it’s a big ask for him to put up 32 points tonight. Add in that Leonard is shooting just 33% from 3-point range in the postseason, and it’s another positive sign for shorting this point total.
This prop has -106 at BetMGM for the under, which is the best price as most of the other books have this trending towards -120. That additional value is huge and speaks to how important it is to make sure we are getting the best numbers of these props. Although I think the Clippers will find a way to advance, I’ll take the under on Leonard in this spot with the odds sitting basically at even money.
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