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NBA Picks + NBA Odds: Lakers vs. Heat
Tyler Herro Over 17.5 Points: +100 (BetMGM) Â
We head to Game 5 of the NBA finals and unless the Heat can muster up a huge performance this will be the last game of the season. The Lakers are up 3-1 in the series and look to close things out today as a 7.5-point favorite. They have the edge in talent and due to injuries on the Heat side, it is hard to envision them finding a way to push this to a Game 6.
For today’s player prop I am going to point totals with Tyler Herro. His over/under tonight for points is 17.5, and I will be leaning over. The best number available is over at BetMGM, where Herro is +100 as most other sites have him in the -120 range for over 17.5 points. He will be relied on heavily as he always is, and he will have plenty of volume to push over this number.
Herro has been impressive all postseason and has solidified himself as a key piece of this Heat team. During the Conference Finals he averaged 19.2 points per game and exploded with a 37-point performance, which shows his ceiling. So far against the Lakers he’s averaging a respectable 17.3 points, but when we dig into the numbers, it feels like it could easily be more. With all of Miami’s injuries, Herro is logging major minutes, and his 36.5 minutes per game don’t look likely to change in Game 5. He hasn’t shot well in this series at 38% from the field and just 32% from 3, which are both well below his playoff averages.
This presents a nice opportunity for us to attack the over as he is getting the volume taking 16.5 shots per game, but he just hasn’t made nearly as many as we expected. If he continues to be that aggressive, the points will come, and the over to me is a little depressed due to the shooting woes. Certainly, the Lakers have caused the Heat some problems, but in a win-or-go-home game, Herro should be active and could easily push for 40 minutes tonight. With the line at +100, it is good enough to fire on and hope that we see him get back in form from behind the arc.
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