AwesemoOdds: NBA Prop Pick of the Day | Lakers vs. Heat | 9/30

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NBA Picks + NBA Odds: Lakers vs. Heat

LeBron James Over 8.5 Assists -129 (BetMGM) 

We are set to kick off the NBA Finals and it’s a matchup few thought would ever happen. That is mostly thanks to the Miami Heat, who ran through the Eastern Conference despite being a team nobody was really talking about heading into the bubble. They dismantled the top-seeded Milwaukee Bucks and then followed that up with an impressive showing against the Celtics. On the other side, the Lakers took care of business, but they also didn’t have to face the Clippers, who many figured would be their opponent in the Western Conference Finals. Still, there are two quality teams looking to get this series started with a big win.

I am going to the assists market with LeBron James. His over/under tonight for assists stands at 8.5, and I will be leaning towards the over on this prop. BetMGM has the best odds available, where LeBron is a slight favorite to go over 8.5 on this number tonight. Most books are in the same range as BetMGM, so this line should be pretty widely available to you.


Editors Note:

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LeBron James NBA Finals Game 1 Prop Bet NBA DFS


We all know that Lebron is a generational passer, and I don’t really need to get into all the accolades he has accumulated over his career. He certainly knows how to turn it on when need be, and that can be via scoring or distributing depending on what he feels the team needs. Overall, I feel like LeBron will start the series out in a more distribution role and will rarely look for his shot early on.

In Games 1’s of these playoffs, James has averaged 12 assists to open the series while averaging fewer than 20 points per game, which is well below his series averages. This lend more evidence to the fact James doesn’t look to score as often in Game 1’s, and I don’t see any reason that trend won’t continue. You could look to short his point total in this spot, but I am comfortable backing him as a distributor against this Heat team.


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Author
*Ben Rasa (aka Jazzraz)* has been involved with sports and numbers for quite some time dabbling in the poker world , sports wagering and of course finding a home in the DFS world. While he enjoys playing NFL, NCAAF and NBA he has found his best advantage on the links with PGA and the Euro Tour. Jazzraz focuses on GPPs and uses a analytical approach to try and find pricing inefficiencies as well as trying to go against the grain to find those under owned lesser know players that can make the difference in giant field tournaments. You can contact Ben by emailing [email protected].

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